51–60 of 122 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's complicated because the forecasts of the system themselves can have some effect on the system they're forecasting. Because of people chasing alpha in the markets, any forecast with too much predictive power will tend to alter the system in ways that reduce its predictive power
It's like if predicting the weather could hurt the weather's feelings.
Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years
Earlier quoted context omitted.
On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…
Things are different now. The reality is that probably close to 80-90% of self-described software engineers face permnanet unemployment as they will be replaced by low paid "prompt engineers", likey from India. It's already happening and it's happening at scale. The top 10% will see enourmous income gains as they will be the only people left who actually know what they are doing and how to correct mistakes that can't…
Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years
On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…
That's expected if you don't want to pay the salaries your candidates want. Admitting to not being able to find qualified workers is admitting fundamental incompetence as an employer and as a business. Hiring and retaining workers is the foundation of any business that employs people.
Haven't it struck you that maybe you are unrealistic about salaries if you are having trouble hiring?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Things are different now. The reality is that probably close to 80-90% of self-described software engineers face permnanet unemployment as they will be replaced by low paid "prompt engineers", likey from India. It's already happening and it's happening at scale. The top 10% will see enourmous income gains as they will be the only people left who actually know what they are doing and how to correct mistakes that can't…
Genuinely reads like a scare-mongering myths. I am doing the basic of the basic atm - adding an API endpoint to call an internal API and get a subset of data and ChatGPT can't even accomplish that. I have been reviewing the usability of AI for at least a year now, and it's still nowhere near even replacing juniors, despite these posts.
Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years
On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…
The folks who took advantage of the ability to leave the city and get a house somewhere other than the Bay or one of the three other cities tech was hiring in are older folks for whom moving back to be near family had some resonance. They've now had 4 years to build a life there.
Of course you can't find talented engineers who want to uproot their families and rip their kids away from their cousins, schools, and friends to go live in an apartment in a city and commute to whatever horseshit open floor plan dorm simulator you're calling an office, and especially not if you're not willing to pay an "unrealistically high salary." You'd need to pay me an unrealistically high salary to consider that, too.
As usual, there's not a skill gap or a worker shortage, there's an unwillingness to pay talent what it's worth.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…
> We have trouble finding good engineers to hire > while I might have been open to hiring a digital nomad in 2021, I’m not open to that anymore Might be related?
The only thing that can explain this perfectly well in my opinion is: manager ego. As simple as that.
IMF economic forecasts are of little value, as everyone should have learned from 2008. Let's see what the IMF forecast in 2007... https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores1... forecast: "World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4¾ percent " reality (Fed report 2013): "From peak to trough, US gross domestic product fell by 4.3 percent, making this the deepest recession sinc…
It's complicated because the forecasts of the system themselves can have some effect on the system they're forecasting. Because of people chasing alpha in the markets, any forecast with too much predictive power will tend to alter the system in ways that reduce its predictive power
IMF economic forecasts are of little value, as everyone should have learned from 2008. Let's see what the IMF forecast in 2007... https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores1... forecast: "World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4¾ percent " reality (Fed report 2013): "From peak to trough, US gross domestic product fell by 4.3 percent, making this the deepest recession sinc…
> If climate scientists made forecasts that were this ridiculously off base in the wrong direction, the whole field would be laughed out of the room. How is it that the neoclassical econometric modelers at the IMF aren't? It's more like astrology than science. I have to say, this made me chuckle. Climate scientists have gone from warning us that we're entering an ice age, to warning us that the globe is warming too m…
Also, a philosopher cosplaying as a climate scientist may not be the best source for climate information. Until he starts having his statements and information peer-reviewed, it's nothing more than the philosophical musings of a man who, he himself, believes that the pinnacle of life is to feed the machine and consume, consume, consume.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Genuinely reads like a scare-mongering myths. I am doing the basic of the basic atm - adding an API endpoint to call an internal API and get a subset of data and ChatGPT can't even accomplish that. I have been reviewing the usability of AI for at least a year now, and it's still nowhere near even replacing juniors, despite these posts.
Nevermind. The downvoting is wild. This is how you end up in a bubble.