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Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

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Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#51
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just 'the West'. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-21/chinas-population-is-... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/japan-populati...

Zeihan (geopolitics celebrity dude) talks about this pretty often. It goes hand in hand with urbanization. When you're on the farm and especially when child mortality is high...you have lots of kids as they're needed for work. In the big city, kids are just a costly burden, so people have a lot less. All the countries that jumped into urbanization are in this boat. China, South Korea, Germany, Italy, and Japan are al…

> It goes hand in hand with urbanization

Haredi/Hasidic/ultra-Orthodox Jews are an interesting exception to that – a predominantly urban/suburban subculture sustaining a high TFR (over 6 in Israel).

A stringent religious doctrine which promotes large families may be the only thing which can overcome urbanization's encouragement of lower TFRs. In the long-long-long term, it is possible (not certain) that subcultures with that characteristic will end up numerically dominating the population.

> It's in this decade that they start running out of working age adults and shit starts getting really screwy

The obvious answer is a significant increase in immigration rates. Of course, for political/cultural reasons, some of the countries you mentioned don't want to do that. But, if the economic hardships of population decline grow big enough, they may become bigger than the political/cultural resistance to it.

In the long-long term, that strategy is going to fail, because the immigration source countries are on the same demographic trajectory, just further back on the curve. Still, the point at which it fails may well be long after we are all dead.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have never understood how this is a "bomb," western cultures are so good at distancing the elderly, nobody will notice if conditions in care facilities become worse. How exactly will all of the unsupported old people overthrow society? By selling their IRAs? Will China's over-working-age-population get a second wind just long enough to take down the Party? I think realpolitik has so permeated our way of thinking th…

if the majority of the public is much older they will likely vote for measures that favor them. Millennials look like they will be pretty left-leaning. The US could divert 10% of its military budget and ensure seniors live in relative comfort. I’m not saying these things will come to pass, only that it isn’t obvious to me that there is a coming crash. The economy will morph to reflect the forces that exist within it.

If there is enough money around for that to be possible, I don't see how people could call that a crisis.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#53
post #21
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just 'the West'. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-21/chinas-population-is-... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/japan-populati...

Japan has embraced everything West starting 1868. China outright banned having more than 1 kid and people aborted girls en masse. This one I grant an exemption.

It’s not just China and Japan. India is under replacement rate as well.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've worked with plenty of people who have no visible significant other, even. It's fucking weird. Thirty+ (40+) year old guys living alone in huge houses, never married. I'm guessing they are just hitting up sex workers. These are smart, well adjusted people who would have made good fathers.

Maybe they just never met the right lady. Calling it "fucking weird" seems a bit over the top, and contradictory to your statement about working with plenty of them.

I read it as describing the situation being weird. The people being normal is what makes the whole thing weird

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#55
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me it's like this: https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/hf0rf/for_reasons_une... (third square)

Heh, maybe if people were having more kids the US political landscape wouldn’t be so fucked.

Watch idiocracy for what that could lead to.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#56
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People stop having kids when economic forces work against them. It doesn't matter how the forces were put there. At least it's not like it was in Adam Smith's time, when the downward pressure was a result of children failing to reach adulthood. Thanks to birth control and modern medicine, people can decline to have children when they know the conditions are not right.

The whole "children are so expensive" meme is overrated. College is expensive but attendance rates are high. Real estate is expensive but people keep buying homes. Some alternate reasons for declining fertility: 1. Decline in religious belief 2. Widespread, easy to use birth control 3. More options for entertainment are widely available. Having kids is less attractive when you could be traveling, binging endless seri…

I think you’re absolutely right, especially about #4.

We are wealthier than ever. It’s not the money.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#57
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People stop having kids when economic forces work against them. It doesn't matter how the forces were put there. At least it's not like it was in Adam Smith's time, when the downward pressure was a result of children failing to reach adulthood. Thanks to birth control and modern medicine, people can decline to have children when they know the conditions are not right.

The whole "children are so expensive" meme is overrated. College is expensive but attendance rates are high. Real estate is expensive but people keep buying homes. Some alternate reasons for declining fertility: 1. Decline in religious belief 2. Widespread, easy to use birth control 3. More options for entertainment are widely available. Having kids is less attractive when you could be traveling, binging endless seri…

> College is expensive but attendance rates are high

A lot of "college is expensive" is a US-specific problem, not one universal to the Western world. In many European countries, public universities are tuition-free. Even in those Western countries with non-nominal tuition, it is almost always significantly less than the sky-high US levels.

The fact that many countries have cheaper higher education yet lower fertility than the US suggests that, even in the US case, this is unlikely to be a big factor. It likely makes a difference at the margins, but only at the margins.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What do you mean? Would I want my children to be at risk of school shootings? Would I want my children to have to deal with the fact that I can't afford to pay for health care in the only country where it's not free? Would I want my children to have to deal with the current state of the internet, with TikTok and other predatory social media running rampant? When they get older do I want them to have to deal with how…

I'm pretty sure the world was at least as terrible at any given point in the past, we were just much less informed/aware of it thanks to the lack of Internet like mass-communication.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#59
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole "children are so expensive" meme is overrated. College is expensive but attendance rates are high. Real estate is expensive but people keep buying homes. Some alternate reasons for declining fertility: 1. Decline in religious belief 2. Widespread, easy to use birth control 3. More options for entertainment are widely available. Having kids is less attractive when you could be traveling, binging endless seri…

Children are not too expensive for anyone to afford, they're too expensive for most people to think it is worth having more than two. That might sound like a qualification, but it's what population decline means.

I unfortunately can't find the source right now, but I recently came across a study that found that, in the US, number of children was almost completely uncorrelated with regional cost of living but was quite correlated with beliefs about the amount of effort/time raising a child requires.

I think our culture of expecting/demanding that parents invest ever greater amounts of time and effort (with all the evidence suggesting that these increased investments do not improve long term outcomes) is a far bigger driver than costs.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What do you mean? Would I want my children to be at risk of school shootings? Would I want my children to have to deal with the fact that I can't afford to pay for health care in the only country where it's not free? Would I want my children to have to deal with the current state of the internet, with TikTok and other predatory social media running rampant? When they get older do I want them to have to deal with how…

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