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UK Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output

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Re: UK Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output

#51

Post by ta1243 »

martinald wrote: post #48
ta1243 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scope for the increase in electric use between electric cars (244b vehicle miles, or 60TWh) and moving from gas to heatpumps (250TWh of domestic gas usage, so 80TWh), that adds a constant load 24/7 of 15GW (if it were evenly spread through the year)

Yes I get that, but even adding 15GW to current demand doesn't really move the needle as much as you'd think. I'm also not sure it will be soaked up entirely, EVs yes but heat pumps I'm not as sure about.

Depends on policy, but if policy pushes domestic gas out then heating comes form either heatpumps or resistive heating (which would be far more)

Re: UK Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output

#52

Post by ta1243 »

s8s8discourse wrote: post #37
ta1243 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scope for the increase in electric use between electric cars (244b vehicle miles, or 60TWh) and moving from gas to heatpumps (250TWh of domestic gas usage, so 80TWh), that adds a constant load 24/7 of 15GW (if it were evenly spread through the year)

SME industrial production. Business electricity is/can be significantly more expensive than domestic electricity prices. It's a significant variable cost. Consider a small CNC routing enterprise running 4 machines. Each machine averages 25kW, with extraction, air supply etc contributing another 50kw. Heating the space in winter (CNC routers lock out if the ambient temperature drops below 18c) is incredibly inefficien…

SME workshops made an assumption they would be able to get cheap electricity for the entire time. The reason prices went upto 111p/kWh was because of the price of gas and oil skyrocketting as demand ballooned post covid, sanctions hit, and fears of war skyrocketed. That's nothing to do with renewables.

If variation is a significant and long term then grid sized storage will buy low and sell high.

Re: UK Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output

#53

Post by martinald »

pjc50 wrote: post #47
martinald wrote: post #24

I think the UK by 2030 (or so) is actually going to have a really major problem with too much renewable capacity at times - not just not enough transmission capacity, just too much full stop. There's currently 30GW of wind in the UK (offshore + onshore), plus an ambition to get another 35GW of offshore installed in the next 6 years. I'm not sure whether that will be met, but I would project at least another 20GW of o…

> I think we are going to be in a position where we have (way) too much power at least 50% of the year. This seems ridiculous to cite as a problem , at a time when people are facing record high bills, but perhaps some time between now and then the subsidy can be tapered a bit.

The problem is that having too much power massively increases bills for end users (that is the more abstract point of the article), as we need to pay wind farm operators to shut them down.

If we have guaranteed a £50/MWh CfD to a wind or solar producer, and we have too much power on the grid , then you need to pay them ~£50/MWh to shut off (otherwise they'd just keep producing).

If we had for example 20GW surplus capacity on the grid at any one time paying £50/MWh for curtailment costs £1m/hr which then billpayers have to pay. This is highly simplified but hopefully gets the point I'm trying to make across.

Re: UK Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output

#54

Post by martinald »

simmerup wrote: post #50
marcosscriven wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who do you get energy from? Octopus Tracker is currently 15p, and not been over 19p for months. A few days in December it was down to 7p.

Really?! I’m on ‘Flexible Octopus’ — the only alternative they’re offering me is Octopus Fixed which is 26p per kwh for 12 months Edit; Oh, I see, I need a smart meter to get Tracker. I’m a renter so not sure about the process for getting a smart meter there

Yes this is the best kept 'secret' in the UK power market right now. It's basically half price. I was expecting prices to spike over the winter a bit and reduce the savings but they haven't.

Paying approx 15p/kWh for electricity and 4p/kWh for gas, which is about half of the price cap rates.

Re: UK Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output

#55

Post by toyg »

ben_w wrote: post #49
cjs_ac wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jacob Rees-Mogg is a very strange politician. Here's a short documentary about him[0]. Highlights include: * Being the subject of a French television documentary when he was 12 years old[1]; * Campaigning against abortion (which itself is weird in the UK outside of Northern Ireland) while investing in abortion pills; and * Campaigning for election in one of the most deprived areas of the UK, while accompanied by his…

> is frequently referred to on Reddit as 'the honourable member for the nineteenth century' (prior centuries are often substituted). Also on UK broadcast satire, though I can't remember off the top of my head if I'm thinking of Have I Got News For You or The News Quiz. (Possibly both?)

The nickname actually originated in Westminster circles (where the formula "the honourable member for" is common currency), all comedians just picked it up and ran with it.

Re: UK Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output

#56

Post by ryathal »

Sai_ wrote: post #23
Angostura wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They always run into Nimbys who don't understand that sea birds etc are far more threatened by the direct effects of climate change than by projects that affect their habitats in a designed way. That's incredibly dismissive of genuine environmental concerns about immediate effects on coastal ecology

Can you elaborate on where the parent comment is erring? Sounds reasonable that planned interventions like tidal power plants are more controllable than global climate change

If I bulldoze a corner of you house for a planned turbine and say it's less damaging than a potential hurricane from climate change, it isn't going to make you feel better.

Re: UK Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output

#57

Post by simmerup »

martinald wrote: post #54
simmerup wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really?! I’m on ‘Flexible Octopus’ — the only alternative they’re offering me is Octopus Fixed which is 26p per kwh for 12 months Edit; Oh, I see, I need a smart meter to get Tracker. I’m a renter so not sure about the process for getting a smart meter there

Yes this is the best kept 'secret' in the UK power market right now. It's basically half price. I was expecting prices to spike over the winter a bit and reduce the savings but they haven't. Paying approx 15p/kWh for electricity and 4p/kWh for gas, which is about half of the price cap rates.

Thanks for the info.I need to sort my smart meter. My gas at the moment is 7.3p per kwh

Re: UK Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output

#58

Post by martinald »

s8s8discourse wrote: post #37
ta1243 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scope for the increase in electric use between electric cars (244b vehicle miles, or 60TWh) and moving from gas to heatpumps (250TWh of domestic gas usage, so 80TWh), that adds a constant load 24/7 of 15GW (if it were evenly spread through the year)

SME industrial production. Business electricity is/can be significantly more expensive than domestic electricity prices. It's a significant variable cost. Consider a small CNC routing enterprise running 4 machines. Each machine averages 25kW, with extraction, air supply etc contributing another 50kw. Heating the space in winter (CNC routers lock out if the ambient temperature drops below 18c) is incredibly inefficien…

You can fix for 24 months at 21p/kWh now with octopus business.

I think half the problem of this is people signing terrible business energy deals and not switching aggressively enough.

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