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My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

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Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#51

Post by pixl97 »

osrec wrote: post #19
vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

I agree that it doesn't account for blue collar workers, but it wouldn't surprise me if the balance, purely in terms of financials, was actually that unbalanced. I'm not saying it's correct or fair that a trader sat at his desk can contribute £20 million to a country's "output", while a builder, working his backside off could maybe add £100k, but that's the world we live in...

If you're a builder manager you can make more, but if you look at residential housing, the people at the bottom aren't making shit. Mostly it is a poorly regulated, non-unionized, highly dependent on under the table pay industry.

But anyway about it, if there is suddenly an influx of manual/physical labor poured into the market, labor prices will drop far below the living cost and all hell will eventually break loose.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#52

Post by mewpmewp2 »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

I imagine 5% could easily be work where you want an actual human being, not because they are better than AI, but because they are a human being, and that is what you are wired to want.

I'm pretty sure 95% in that definition would include trade workers.

5% could be something like teachers, babysitters, because you want children to have that human to human connection.

I think it could be thought of as "95%+", meaning even if computer is more intelligent, we'll still want humans because they are humans for some things, because we, ourselves are humans and that's what we want.

Things like healthcare should be fully automated, except for a small percentage again. You have a health problem, you go in, you don't need that human connection unless you have a very specific need, some of the times.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#53

Post by spookybones »

ChatGTP wrote: post #12
vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

The belief is that once the AGI is here, the possibilities are endless for disrupting absolutely every aspect of our life and society, the end of human history is what I've hear Open AI folks say. There will be zero work, humans will be completely useless economically and we'll just have to hope that some how, all of this wealth is fairly distributed and we don't lose our minds from feeling completely useless. What y…

I predict AI will make virtual reality finally take off, and it will open new worlds. I don’t really know what that will mean for humanity, culture, and the economy.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#54

Post by skepticATX »

feverzsj wrote: post #16

My AI timelines says next AI winter will come in 10 years, when people find it's a vaporware ... again.

AI isn’t vaporware, but in my view there is a massive AGI bubble right now.

Everyone is attributing high level reasoning and intelligence to LLMs and quite frankly there is little evidence for this being the case.

There is almost certainly an AGI winter coming.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#55

Post by tedajax »

echelon wrote: post #29
feverzsj wrote: post #16

My AI timelines says next AI winter will come in 10 years, when people find it's a vaporware ... again.

Disney and Pixar animation are about to get 10,000x - 100,000x cheaper and accessible to nearly anyone. When applied to the correct domains, AI is incredible.

To actually think this requires nothing but raw ignorance of the creative process.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#56

Post by pixl97 »

vallode wrote: post #37
tomNth wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"reading through this entire blog post" ? Is "The Physically Embodied Bear" "95%+ will include taking physical, real-world actions." not a mention of "construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters" and "blue-collar workers" ?

The paragraph was my exact problem, hundreds of words but the entire world of AI interacting with the world physically is boiled down into an assumption that "by the time we get there, we'll get there". It just doesn't seem realistic? Especially with predictions/hunches like the ones found in the article. Others seem to mention it is a sort of feedback look, once we get to 50% AGI I guess that AI itself can help us o…

>How much do current AIs contribute to their own development?

Really a pretty fair amount these days as AIs can contribute to their own training data. In addition they've got pretty good at measuring their own success. In the past for example, if you had a robot hammer hitting a nail, you'd have a person judging the quality of the strike, but now you can face a few cameras at it and self judge far better. Yea, you still need some people around, but the amount required has dropped a lot.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#57

Post by PurpleRamen »

ChatGTP wrote: post #12
vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

The belief is that once the AGI is here, the possibilities are endless for disrupting absolutely every aspect of our life and society, the end of human history is what I've hear Open AI folks say. There will be zero work, humans will be completely useless economically and we'll just have to hope that some how, all of this wealth is fairly distributed and we don't lose our minds from feeling completely useless. What y…

> There will be zero work, humans will be completely useless economically and we'll just have to hope that some how, all of this wealth is fairly distributed and we don't lose our minds from feeling completely useless.

That's delusional on a disturbing level. It's as if those people have no clue about the real world, or are willingly lying. All the wealth we have now, is not fairly distributed, and just having more to distribute won't change this. Unless they speculate on putting enough stress on the system to break it, and think it will lead to something better, because...?

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#59

Post by matt_heimer »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #28
idopmstuff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

One good robot arm that a below minimum wage gig worker carries around. edit: he can also turn the crank to keep it powered maybe

Or the minimum wage gig worker is the robot. If we ever get neural interfaces working well maybe the AGI could control our motor functions. Maybe not full control, I don't think most people would be comfortable with that but think of shooting a gun. If the worker points the gun in the right general direction and the AGI add some fine tuning to turn them into an expert marksman...what army wouldn't turn all their conscripts into marksman? Basically the aim assist bots in video games but for real world.

It could be used to let gig workers perform surgery, play in an orchestra, be actors in a movie.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#60

Post by EricMausler »

matt_heimer wrote: post #30
idopmstuff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instr…

I think the first roadblock to this method is the grey area for liability. I feel like a lot of the value to qualifying people for trade work is less about getting the work done and more about maintaining a chain of accountability. The AR tech can absolutely be uses, and I think is currently used in some places, but the person using it will likely still need to be an employee of a company willing to accept 100% of the risk. I wonder what we'd have to do to get around that

Some examples:

Something goes wrong even though you did what it told you to do, but it didn't account for something specific to your situation, but the fine print says you were supposed to provide info on any non-standard circumstances, but you aren't qualified to know what needs to be said.

Or it asks you to do something surprisingly difficult that you don't know is outside your limit until you're in the thick of it - like holding something down with a lot of pressure and your hand slips causing damage or injury.

Or you do the whole thing and everything seems fine, and then later it breaks and causes damage/injury, the cause is linked back to your work so now fault needs to be assigned/split between you and the AI.

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