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Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

cleantechnica.com

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Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#51

Post by jakewins »

dpkirchner wrote: post #16
dfxm12 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're already incentivized to do things like running the dishwasher in the evening do to costs, no? Or is the implication that it would be considerably even more cheap?

Depends on where you live -- where I'm at, there's no time of day based savings (unless you're a big industrial user, IIUC).

This is rapidly changing worldwide though: as more variable production comes online, the value of shaping demand grows.

Missouri is moving to hourly rates this year IIRC. EU already is on 60-min day-ahead prices and pushing hard to get to 15minutely prices.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#52

Post by scythe »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #44
apsec112 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't like trying to beat the stock market. There's no intrinsic reason why their predictions should be any good, and in fact they've been comically bad, coming in too low every year for 21 consecutive years: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/10/09/iea-low-balls-solar-g... (this is from 2018, but the same trend has continued up through 2023)

> no intrinsic reason why their predictions should be any good This is where the "generaly credible" bit comes in. They're good forecasters in other domains. Part of being a good forecaster is adjusting as you make errors. So we'd need a hypothesis for why they wouldn't be making those adjustments. As a trivial example, Hoekstra's chart shows the WEO serially predicting false plateaus between 2006 and 2018. Those pla…

The link you're referring to only goes to next year, whereas the infamous pessimistic graphs tried to extrapolate for around a decade. I suppose capitulation would count as an adjustment.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#53

Post by matthewdgreen »

Retric wrote: post #29
7thaccount wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but please keep things in context. We're transitioning away from baseload, but it's a major endeavor and not going to happen over night. I think the HN crowd is a little overzealous in this area. NERC is reporting the potential for energy shortages in many regions in the United States. This was once virtually unheard of. Solar alone isn't going to fix this in the next few years and many regions still have only t…

The ramp up is inherently slow, we’re still generally seeing cheaper nighttime rates than daytime rates even after years of ‘heavy’ investment in solar. Solar’s impact on prices is going to remain fairly trivial for the next few years. But start looking 20 years out and a great deal of nighttime load will shift, which dramatically reduces the need for storage even as decades of X0 GW per year adds up. Aka it’s not ju…

3400GW of solar nameplate is expected to be built from 2023 to 2028 globally, which is maybe 40% of all existing global electrical generation. So I don’t think “20 years” is the right time period to be thinking in.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#54

Post by drycobbler »

specialist wrote: post #4

Excellent. Witness the power of the cost learning curve (Wright's Law). Per Jenny Chase, we also need new wind power generation capacity to keep pace. If solar gets too far ahead of wind on the cost learning curve, it'll (further) spoil the financing of wind. Our glorious green energy future requires both wind and solar, in roughly equal measure. This Volts episode is quite good: Checking in on solar power - A conver…

This was fascinating! Thanks for sharing!

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#55

Post by Panino »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #5

Sadly, wind has much better capacity factor, and works during nights and winter.

Wind is my favorite generation source and we need much more of it, but I can say that my rooftop solar in USDA Zone 5 (colder than most of the US) produced a net-surplus of energy for my all-electric house in December. So it's pretty good. Saying that solar "doesn't work" in winter is some mix of lazy, factually wrong, and unsubstantive. I've also got some standalone panels out in the yard right now hooked up to an LFP battery that I haul out there most days. Solar is awesome and I'm thinking about the best ways to expand.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#56

Post by v4vvdq »

verisimi wrote: post #15

I don't get why solar is so popular. In more northern regions, you get much less light in the winter. You effectively can only generate around one tenth of the energy you can in the summer - this is from experience talking to others who monitor their solar installations. But, you need more energy in the winter. People are in more, using electricity for heat cos it's colder. I'm pointing out that there is a supply/dem…

In northern (and southern) regions the less light you get in winter, the more you get in summer. It is a zero-sum game.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#58

Post by robotnikman »

verisimi wrote: post #15

I don't get why solar is so popular. In more northern regions, you get much less light in the winter. You effectively can only generate around one tenth of the energy you can in the summer - this is from experience talking to others who monitor their solar installations. But, you need more energy in the winter. People are in more, using electricity for heat cos it's colder. I'm pointing out that there is a supply/dem…

One thing I've thought about, how hard would it be to set up a lot of solar panels in a region with 99% good weather (like Arizona) and then supply some of the energy to areas with less favorable weather?

Though that would be putting all your eggs in one basket.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#59

Post by toomuchtodo »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #46
toomuchtodo wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla warranties the Powerwall for 10 years, 15 years if part of one of their virtual power plants (orchestrated by Autobidder [1]). Look into the 30% federal tax credit for it, as well as state, local, and utility incentives. If you don't yet have solar and your site is favorable, I strongly recommend considering it if you can have it installed at a reasonable cost. [1] https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/tesla-sof…

Can you submit a residential battery to Autobidder?

If Tesla has a virtual power plant program in your geography.

https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/tesla-virtual-power-pla...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32500926

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#60

Post by Ajedi32 »

dylan604 wrote: post #21
dfxm12 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're already incentivized to do things like running the dishwasher in the evening do to costs, no? Or is the implication that it would be considerably even more cheap?

This is where I'm really intrigued of all-house battery packs like the Tesla Powerwall (it's the only name of one I'm familiar to call out). I like the idea that it charges at night during the lower rates, and during the day the house is powered from the battery. Just haven't seen any longevity reports on them in general vs brochure data.

One thing to consider is that if that's profitable to do at house scale, then it's probably even more profitable to do at grid scale and you'll likely be out-competed by utility companies.

Edit: Unless you're taking advantage of tax incentives to do it at house scale. Its hard to beat the economics of just being handed free money.

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