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Please ignore the deluge of complete nonsense about Q*

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Re: Please ignore the deluge of complete nonsense about Q*

#51

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

ren_engineer wrote: post #33

The leak about Q* feels like an olive branch to let the former OpenAI board and Ilya save a bit of face, probably part of the terms for Sam coming back plus it distracts from all the drama and puts a positive spin on things. >"The board didn't handle things well, but they were right to be concerned because OpenAI did have some sort of research breakthrough" Not coincidence that this leaks after Sam comes back, rather…

I don't buy this at all. Just going to leave a previous comment I wrote about people coming up with semi-outlandish reasonings behind why something occurs, when there is nothing wrong with the straightforward assumption (that is, the board was concerned about the direction of AI, which is wholly unsurprising given the board's makeup, the Q* stuff was just another concerning point, and there were obviously personality clashes): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38350377

Re: Please ignore the deluge of complete nonsense about Q*

#52

Post by hackinthebochs »

qualifiedai wrote: post #46
hackinthebochs wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His arguments in defense of barreling forward with AI are terrible. They have zero chance to convince someone who doesn't share his intuitions/interests. For example: https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1718764953534939162 How easily smart people convince themselves of what they want to be true with zero self-awareness makes me much more fearful of what's to come. >other side gives, imho, convoluted arguments and asks…

The default in science is that the side arguing a point has the burden of proving it correct. Not asking the other side to prove them wrong.

Burden of proof is a tragically misapplied concept. The question is what position should be the default given some uncertainty? This isn't decided in a vacuum. The default should be decided based on the facts and utility estimates of various outcomes where relevant. In the case where the issue is of purely academic interest, the burden of proof is on those making the claim. When the issue has real world consequences, then utility estimates of various outcomes are the overriding concern.

When you see a gun on the table, what do you do? You assume its loaded until proven otherwise. For some reason, those who imagine AI will usher in some tech-utopia not only assume the gun is empty, but that pulling the trigger will bring forth endless prosperity. It's rather insane actually.

Re: Please ignore the deluge of complete nonsense about Q*

#53

Post by concordDance »

renewiltord wrote: post #15
uoaei wrote: post #6

It's hard to call anything that comes from LeCun "news": any time you hear of a phenomenon in the ML/AI space, you know pretty much exactly the sentiment he's going to express. His entire brand is "doomers are wrong, you can trust me, I am AI daddy".

Doomers thought GPT-2 was too dangerous to release. I guess one can be Dalio successful by calling doom at every instant like Dalio.

Who thought that? I don't know of anyone who thought that and I'm in doomer circles.

Re: Please ignore the deluge of complete nonsense about Q*

#56

Post by tbalsam »

michael_nielsen wrote: post #4
6gvONxR4sf7o wrote: post #2

"Please ignore all the speculation... and now for my speculation."

LeCun at least knows a lot about AI. Most of the Q* stuff is coming from people who know almost nothing.

Honestly, he has some really good takes mixed with....really bad ones.

I ended up unfollowing him as the curmudgeony approach combined with some of the far out stuff was just a bit too much for me. Doesn't really improve discourse in the field.

Re: Please ignore the deluge of complete nonsense about Q*

#57

Post by kibwen »

andy_xor_andrew wrote: post #14

I took an AI course in college back around 2015. Just a bit before AlphaGo. One project was to implement a simple Q-learning action/value system to play simple games, like Pacman. The crypto-bros-turned-AGI-experts on twitter are spouting the most uninformed, misguided garbage about this whole thing, it's quite amazing to watch. And I'm not saying that I am smart or an expert about Q* because I took an introductory c…

> The crypto-bros-turned-AGI-experts on twitter are spouting the most uninformed, misguided garbage about this whole thing, it's quite amazing to watch.

After the LK-99 debacle where Twitter "confirmed" its superconductivity and breathless sheisters heralded the dawn of a new age, my new policy is "inverse Twitter": if Twitter thinks something is a big deal, then it's more than than 50% likely that it's unsubstantiated horsepucky. The signal:noise ratio on Twitter has always been uselessly low, but the post-crypto scene has plumbed heretofore unfathomable depths.

Re: Please ignore the deluge of complete nonsense about Q*

#58

Post by bbor »

qualifiedai wrote: post #46
hackinthebochs wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His arguments in defense of barreling forward with AI are terrible. They have zero chance to convince someone who doesn't share his intuitions/interests. For example: https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1718764953534939162 How easily smart people convince themselves of what they want to be true with zero self-awareness makes me much more fearful of what's to come. >other side gives, imho, convoluted arguments and asks…

The default in science is that the side arguing a point has the burden of proving it correct. Not asking the other side to prove them wrong.

A nice thought but not very helpful. What’s the null hypothesis here?

Re: Please ignore the deluge of complete nonsense about Q*

#60

Post by klyrs »

wkat4242 wrote: post #25
michael_nielsen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LeCun at least knows a lot about AI. Most of the Q* stuff is coming from people who know almost nothing.

Seems to be a common theme with stuff starting with Q...

Quiet, you. There's nothing wromg with quiche.
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