Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research • Hacker News Board

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#51

Post by tastyfreeze » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:29 PM UTC

JoshTko wrote: post #24

Any benefit from research of gain of function research is clearly outweighed by risk of lab leak. I.e if the estimated incremental realized benefit of better planning, better mitigation from a single gain of function research equaled X; the cost of a lab leak seems to be 100X~10,000X.

Gain of function research is the kind of experiment that could develop a disease that kills billions. It isn't a game we should be playing lightly if at all. The argument is that eventually biology could make the same mutation. The thing is, it is extremely unlikely that Ebola becomes air born naturally, for example. But that is the kind of thing that gain of function seeks to develop, you know, just in case.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#52

Post by kylebenzle » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:29 PM UTC

Ajay-p wrote: post #25

Perhaps I am one of a small group but it still irritates me how politicized the origins of COVID were. It should never have been that way and it should never happen again. Lab leak, deliberate act, accident, or a mutation in the wild, the origins should have been rigorously challenged and pursued no matter the consequence.

If China did leak COVID, as is looking more and more likely, by accident or on purpose, that is a POLITICAL issues.

First if it was a leak, we'd have to cut off all funding and shared resources just to be safe, which we have already done.

Next there would have to be some investigation that China would naturally be adversarial to. If it was natural they would want to collaborate (they are refusing to collaborate for the most part).

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#53

Post by mc32 » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:30 PM UTC

tastyfreeze wrote: post #44

Ajay-p wrote: post #25

Perhaps I am one of a small group but it still irritates me how politicized the origins of COVID were. It should never have been that way and it should never happen again. Lab leak, deliberate act, accident, or a mutation in the wild, the origins should have been rigorously challenged and pursued no matter the consequence.

People are selfish. COVID may have started in China as a lab leak but the US likely funded it. Plenty of selfish reasons for people in government to squash the idea that COVID was a lab leak. If the lab leak turns out to be true I could see people demanding that the gallows be dusted off.

We fund this research in a few countries around the world where their procedures are more lax so leaks are even more likely than they are in US based labs Plum island, fort Dietrick, etc). Still if US officials are responsible for lax oversight or funding poorly run labs they should be held responsible.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#54

Post by falamboram2 » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:31 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #47

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This entire topic has gotten harebrained, so I’ll add to the fire: the part of our population that had a problem getting vaccinated would have responded much better to a perceived threat from a tangible adversary.

The purpose of a vaccine is to inoculate against a disease. The vaccine failed miserably at that. If the disease were actually deadly enough, more people would have chanced an experimental mRNA injection into their bloodstream vs taking the disease on via natural immunity. You didn't have to propagandize and gaslight people to take the smallpox vaccine: it was self evident how deadly the disease was. And yet, the wor…

[dead]

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#55

Post by kylebenzle » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:31 PM UTC

tastyfreeze wrote: post #44

Ajay-p wrote: post #25

Perhaps I am one of a small group but it still irritates me how politicized the origins of COVID were. It should never have been that way and it should never happen again. Lab leak, deliberate act, accident, or a mutation in the wild, the origins should have been rigorously challenged and pursued no matter the consequence.

People are selfish. COVID may have started in China as a lab leak but the US likely funded it. Plenty of selfish reasons for people in government to squash the idea that COVID was a lab leak. If the lab leak turns out to be true I could see people demanding that the gallows be dusted off.

Even if it was accidentally leaked?

That's extreme. I work with transgenic, not viruses, but mistakes happen and the death penalty for researchers is crazy.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#56

Post by RandomLensman » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:31 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #47

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This entire topic has gotten harebrained, so I’ll add to the fire: the part of our population that had a problem getting vaccinated would have responded much better to a perceived threat from a tangible adversary.

The purpose of a vaccine is to inoculate against a disease. The vaccine failed miserably at that. If the disease were actually deadly enough, more people would have chanced an experimental mRNA injection into their bloodstream vs taking the disease on via natural immunity. You didn't have to propagandize and gaslight people to take the smallpox vaccine: it was self evident how deadly the disease was. And yet, the wor…

Some types of vaccinations against smallpox where available for centuries and there was also opposition to those.

When there were local smallpox outbreaks in the West in the 20th century there were drastic containment measures.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#57

Post by shadowgovt » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:33 PM UTC

Ajay-p wrote: post #25

Perhaps I am one of a small group but it still irritates me how politicized the origins of COVID were. It should never have been that way and it should never happen again. Lab leak, deliberate act, accident, or a mutation in the wild, the origins should have been rigorously challenged and pursued no matter the consequence.

Spanish flu is called Spanish flu because Spain was one of the few countries not directly embroiled in World War I at the time, so when the flu was identified in their cities, their media reported on it. The US and other European nations' military chains of command were aware of the illness ripping through trenches, bases, and hospitals but had a media blackout on public reports of it to avoid disruption of morale during wartime.

We weren't at war this time, but pandemics are inextricable from international politics for the same reason everything else that has massive impact on people's health and safety across national borders is inextricable from international politics.

I agree with you on the desire for depoliticization of the topic, but I lack a mechanism to get there; it's not like an independent agency run by, say, the UN would be free of politics on this topic.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#58

Post by notrlyskeptik » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:33 PM UTC

pmarreck wrote: post #9

purpleblue wrote: post #5

I'm glad that things are slowing down here. Virology research is one of those things no one ever thought about, but the fact that a single careless lab was able to release a virus that killed tens of millions around the world should be a wake up call that the researchers were outpacing the regulations. The entire industry around the world has to be heavily regulated at this point to prevent this from happening again.

> the fact that a single careless lab was able to release a virus that killed tens of millions around the world Wait, is this canon now? If so, how is China going to not garner the hatred of the entire world?

[dead]

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#59

Post by kylebenzle » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:36 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #47

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This entire topic has gotten harebrained, so I’ll add to the fire: the part of our population that had a problem getting vaccinated would have responded much better to a perceived threat from a tangible adversary.

The purpose of a vaccine is to inoculate against a disease. The vaccine failed miserably at that. If the disease were actually deadly enough, more people would have chanced an experimental mRNA injection into their bloodstream vs taking the disease on via natural immunity. You didn't have to propagandize and gaslight people to take the smallpox vaccine: it was self evident how deadly the disease was. And yet, the wor…

Wow, I did a double take in your second paragraph thinking I was reading a comment I had left earlier, lol.

But right on, I feel exactly the same. I do plant transformation and we call these experiments, mRNA "transient-expression" assays, as in, transiently transgenic. It was so weird from my perspective that we were going to start using the common lab technique to test genes on people.

The only two facts I needed were that over 80% of people that have had COVID never even knew they had it, it's that mild. And of the people that even show symptoms it have over a 99% recovery rate.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#60

Post by tastyfreeze » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 5:36 PM UTC

kylebenzle wrote: post #55

tastyfreeze wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are selfish. COVID may have started in China as a lab leak but the US likely funded it. Plenty of selfish reasons for people in government to squash the idea that COVID was a lab leak. If the lab leak turns out to be true I could see people demanding that the gallows be dusted off.

Even if it was accidentally leaked? That's extreme. I work with transgenic, not viruses, but mistakes happen and the death penalty for researchers is crazy.

Yes, for the coverup. If it was a lab leak, we had the director of NIAID covering it up on national news. That is the kind of thing the people demand blood for.