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The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

hachyderm.io

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Re: The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

#51
post #2

The real engine behind “internet” is the bad tech economy. Vendors need something to sell, companies need to show results to investors, team leads need to justify staffing, devs need to stand out to avoid layoffs. Insert any buzzy topic into this mix it will get eviscerated by the starving packs of tech jackals… regardless of what actual users want. I’m excited about the potential behind the technology. But we’re in…

There have always been naked emperors, but what has changed is the amount of pretend time + energy in the form of currency that society has been willing to produce, and pretendess is the one thing that feeds more pretend ess. The pipeline of pretendness is ignorance, both willing and institutionalized. In prior times, the rubber band would have snapped by now. The fantasy has become so hyper that it seems nobody has a clue whether there is even a "rubber band" at this point.

Re: The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

#52
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your thoughts are valid. AI.com is the Pets.com of this generation

We are in a 2nd bigger 'tech' bubble. I hear lots of funny thing said about the era and now' "today is nothing like the dot com bubble, pets.com ... PETS DOT COM!". and I am like, pets.com had a max valuation of 400 million for like a hot minute. Today we have over 1,000 never made a profit tech unicorns. One thousand companies with a market cap of 1 billion+ that has never (and probably never will) made a profit. "y…

Geees well when you put it like that you make it sound pretty bad

Re: The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to build the future I just want dental care for my children.

Universal health care is important, necessary, cheaper than our current system, and I support it. But it's a completely orthogonal concern to the state of the tech economy.

I see an argument in this thread for laissez faire capitalism; its political ramifications are entirely relevant to the state of universal health care in the United States. The economy is interconnected -- the mathematical concept of orthogonality is rarely appropriate when describing broad economic complexities. But perhaps you should simply suggest that a health care discussion here is off-topic?

Re: The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

#54

People have short memories. A few years ago hypes like big data and machine learning, blockchain and autonomous cars were pushed relentlessly . The consultants would confidently predict 300 gazillion profits by 2030, everybody would lose their job etc. Then the pandemic happened, momentarily some candid voices admitted that all this digi-crap does not help an iota with our quality of life (or life, period) but the di…

> momentarily some candid voices admitted that all this digi-crap does not help an iota with our quality of life User behavior was completely inverse, consumption for everything tech went through the roof. H/w for WFH and home schooling, Netflix++ for entertainment, everything ecommerce.

Everything follows hype cycle. It is just that tech is moving so fast that you see new cycles every 5 years. But apart from crypto, everything has delivered.

Re: The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

#55

People have short memories. A few years ago hypes like big data and machine learning, blockchain and autonomous cars were pushed relentlessly . The consultants would confidently predict 300 gazillion profits by 2030, everybody would lose their job etc. Then the pandemic happened, momentarily some candid voices admitted that all this digi-crap does not help an iota with our quality of life (or life, period) but the di…

> The tech economy is like the fabled sharks: needs to keep inventing hypes or it will implode

No, the tech economy wouldn't implode. It would just signal it had become an old, stable industry (eg automobiles). The so called tech economy isn't going away under any scenario, it underpins modern civilization across the globe, and that's only going to be more true in 20/30/50 years than it is already today.

The tech economy is a thousand times larger than it was in the mid 1980s. Despite one hype cycle after another. If your premise were correct, it would have ended a long time ago because it would all just be hype and it would inevitably collapse in on itself.

You've confused a necessary ingredient: venture capital investment, speculation, experimentation, some chaos, with thinking nothing good comes out of the process. The exact opposite is true, it's that very process that produces drastically more positive income and wealth than is destroyed in the inevitable pull-back of the hype cycle (whether it's gentle or a dotcom bubble style crash).

Should take a person less than a minute to grasp this, if they have any awareness of the extraordinary size of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, Amazon, etc. versus the dotcom bubble days (for the equivalent style companies of the time), much less the 1980s.

The global economy (as well as the US economy) is now drastically larger. If you produce a successful product, your outcome can quite easily be drastically larger accordingly. The global economy has expanded in a truly massive way over the last several decades, and the tech economy has gone with it. It's not riding on false hypes, generative AI and the like are a itsy bitsy tiny little corner of the present scale of the tech economy. Go take a look at Microsoft's operating income over the last 30 years and tell me what you see.

Re: The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

#56

But that is a good! Contrast that with other countries where the financial landscape is super conservative when it comes to investment and innovation, like in many EU countries. Economic growth is lower, jobs are fewer, and salaries are lower, and there are less exciting jobs where you can truly build the future. Americans do not appreciate what they have. You do not want the alternative! Appreciate your overly optim…

And yet, despite having less jobs and lower salaries, many countries of europe tend to have less signs of poverty: women are less likely to die in childbirth, there's less gun violence, less homeless and child hunger...

> women are less likely to die in childbirth

This one has been debunked many times. US healthcare attempts riskier births that would otherwise be aborted.

Re: The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

#58

What does he mean by "bad"? What would a "good" tech economy look like? Hard to define. Easy to misinterpret and argue over our different understandings of what he meant.

> What would a "good" tech economy look like?

Producing goods and services that real people buy and benefit from.

Re: The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

#59
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has half the homelessness rate of the UK or France. Childbirth is due to lack of universal health care and gun violence is due to the massive number of guns – not the tech economy.

That might be right, but bear in mind the UK counts temporarily housed people (e.g. people couch surfing) as homeless, not just people literally on the streets. These stats may not be directly comparable.

As someone who wanders around the US and UK a bit, they're definitely not comparable.

Re: The real engine behind "AI" is the bad tech economy

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to build the future I just want dental care for my children.

Universal health care is important, necessary, cheaper than our current system, and I support it. But it's a completely orthogonal concern to the state of the tech economy.

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