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The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

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Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#51

Post by fortran77 »

sidewndr46 wrote: post #15
darth_avocado wrote: post #9

It’s so ridiculous that economists, policymakers and even the fed is so out of touch with the reality of the market. The housing market highs are a result of less supply and not high demand. 90% of mortgages are locked in under 3% rates which ensures the lack of supply will continue in this high interest market, and in some sense even make it worse. A very low percentage of people will be so stretched with student pa…

90% of mortgages may be locked in under 3%, but no one who has payed off their home is going to sell that and wind up financing another house with interest rates where they are at.

True, but people who paid off their homes can often move and buy their next home for cash, especially if they're downsizing.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#52

Post by Turing_Machine »

Tenoke wrote: post #18
thsksbd wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As if what's going to happen depends on the ensemble average of predictors. Tell me why the lone economist predicts that there will be (and there will) an economic crash not how many

Polling an ensemble of experts is much better than asking a single one, and there are some that vote 'not sure' or similar in those polls so it's hardly a coin flip.

Economists aren't really experts, though, as demostrated by the very fact that there's a 42-58 split.

You wouldn't see that in any field where there's genuine expertise (e.g., mathematics, engineering, medicine...)

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#53

Post by Turing_Machine »

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #36
baggy_trough wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think usury is?

Lending money out at unreasonably high interest rates. Which makes 7% usury.

Mortgage interest rates have been far, far higher than 7% in the past.

In 1981, the average mortgage rate hit 16.63%. The rates were higher than 7% all through the '70s, '80s, and most of the '90s, not dropping below 7% until 1998.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#54

Post by armatav »

baggy_trough wrote: post #43
TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lending money out at unreasonably high interest rates. Which makes 7% usury.

7% is not unreasonable by any stretch of the imagination.

Do the math and tell us the income you'd need for a $1,000,000 house at prime.

It's unreasonable. Pay a loan to term one of these days and you'll see why.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#55

Post by thunky »

armatav wrote: post #54
baggy_trough wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

7% is not unreasonable by any stretch of the imagination.

Do the math and tell us the income you'd need for a $1,000,000 house at prime. It's unreasonable. Pay a loan to term one of these days and you'll see why.

Don't buy the $1,000,000 house if you think it's too expensive.

It's only (over)priced that way because rates were low and prices haven't adjusted to current rates yet.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#56

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

Turing_Machine wrote: post #53
TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lending money out at unreasonably high interest rates. Which makes 7% usury.

Mortgage interest rates have been far, far higher than 7% in the past. In 1981, the average mortgage rate hit 16.63%. The rates were higher than 7% all through the '70s, '80s, and most of the '90s, not dropping below 7% until 1998.

I know, I was there.

My first job back then paid $4.75 an hour, and I bought my first home for $37,500.

So go on, keep fucking telling me things were harder back then.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#57

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

thunky wrote: post #55
armatav wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do the math and tell us the income you'd need for a $1,000,000 house at prime. It's unreasonable. Pay a loan to term one of these days and you'll see why.

Don't buy the $1,000,000 house if you think it's too expensive. It's only (over)priced that way because rates were low and prices haven't adjusted to current rates yet.

I don't think those are the only reasons house prices are high now.

Why don't you try telling the whole truth.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#58

Post by KirillPanov »

jmyeet wrote: post #10

The fundamentals of housing I think are still a ways away from a crash. There might be selective markets that cool off or drop. I'd also say Canada is closer to a crash than the US is. But I wanted to mention 2 hacks for legally avoiding crippling student loan debt repayments, possibly forever. 1. Move overseas permanently. This requires you to be on an IDR (Income Driven Repayments) plan, which you have to apply for…

This should not be downvoted. It is a gaping loophole that ought to be closed, but downvoting it won't fix the problem.

Also, it is the "Foreign Earned Income Tax Credit (FEITC)", not FITC. It covers only wages/salary, not dividends+interest. And it is $120k/yr currently, not $110k:

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/fore...

However there are even worse loopholes in the FEITC. Due to a bungled tax treaty, US persons at the Pine Gap facility in Australia who are not US government employees pay no tax to any government at all on that first $120k:

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/fore...

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#59

Post by baggy_trough »

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #57
thunky wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't buy the $1,000,000 house if you think it's too expensive. It's only (over)priced that way because rates were low and prices haven't adjusted to current rates yet.

I don't think those are the only reasons house prices are high now. Why don't you try telling the whole truth.

House prices are high because governments are printing money like mad.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#60

Post by thsksbd »

Tenoke wrote: post #18
thsksbd wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As if what's going to happen depends on the ensemble average of predictors. Tell me why the lone economist predicts that there will be (and there will) an economic crash not how many

Polling an ensemble of experts is much better than asking a single one, and there are some that vote 'not sure' or similar in those polls so it's hardly a coin flip.

No. A only a reasoned argument counts for anything, no matter how many. Everything else is auguring.
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