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The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

pranshum.yarn.tech

51–60 of 134 posts

Re: The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He was also a huge bully at Facebook —- it’s well known that everyone strongly disliked him personally —- and his behavior at SocialCapital was so bizarre that every other partner in the firm quit.

[flagged]

Chamath is getting this thread because he's an ass hole, not because he's some martyr for some grand contrarian cause.

Re: The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

#52

SPACs, in theory, democratized access to late-stage private markets, aiming to give retail investors an early seat at the table. but like many financial innovations, they're tools that can be wielded wisely or poorly. the high failure rate suggests a misalignment of incentives: founders and sponsors capture immediate liquidity, while long-term outcomes get obfuscated by the structure. I once had a chat with a founder…

> SPACs, in theory, democratized access to late-stage private markets, aiming to give retail investors an early seat at the table.

I question how that's even true in theory. A SPAC is an elaborate (and expensive) mechanism to bring a private company public with less disclosure; even if it works as designed, you're not letting retail investors invest in early stage companies.

> He mentioned that the allure wasn't just the capital but the perceived simplicity of the process, compared to a traditional IPO.

There's very little simple about a SPAC, which suggests the founder may not have understood them as much as he thought he did. Perhaps he meant easier?

Also, I mean, there is a simple process for going public that does at least partially democratize the process: Direct listings. I've always found it fascinating how unpopular they are.

Re: The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

#53
post #19
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SPACs, in theory, democratized access to late-stage private markets Working in finance made me extremely cynical about anything that claims to “democratize” finance. It’s a great idea, as you say, in theory; but in practice what gets branded as “democratization” is really selling retail investors on the table scraps that professionals have already picked over.

One of the things I've learned watching the cryptocurrency saga is this: It's hard to get money to be productive. It's hard to get a financial system to do anything other than gamble, pump and dump, scam, and make bubbles.

It’s pretty easy. You need rules and regulators with teeth.

Crypto is the ultimate example of financial anarchy. A sector born from online fraud, metastasizing in its peak off of fad investors setting government transfer payments on fire.

Re: The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

#54
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SPACs, in theory, democratized access to late-stage private markets, aiming to give retail investors an early seat at the table. but like many financial innovations, they're tools that can be wielded wisely or poorly. This is highly misleading IMO. The democratization narrative is a complete marketing ploy — anyone that understands how the SPAC structure works would not call it “democratic” in any sense of the term…

I think you’re conflating the SPAC sponsors and the owners of the public equity. The owners of the equity get their money back (plus interest) if the SPAC doesn’t find a target. The sponsors are out whatever money they put up to form the SPAC, take it public and search unsuccessfully for a target. The sponsors do typically have very rich upside if they find a deal - like, 20% of the post-merger company - but it’s not…

I agree with your overall point, but I would note that US security regulation focuses heavily on disclosure as a mechanism to protect investors, and the owners of pre-deal SPAC shares are not well protected in that regard.

It's good that they get to decide if they want their money back; it's bad they they're required to make that decision with so little information.

Re: The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

#55

I'm always somewhat amazed that Chamath Palihapitiya doesn't have a much worse reputation: 1. My understanding is that he was the primary initial architect of "A/B testing for engagement" at Facebook that turned social media into a tribalistic, outrage generating machine (nothing engages like hate), and that the rest of SV essentially copied. I think this trajectory would have happened regardless, but he was first, s…

Are you trying to engage us? :) Get rid of engagement optimization and I'd guess that it still turns bad. It is what grabs attention in a low-agency mood.

Re: The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

#56
post #38

Isn't the goal of an SPAC to basically circumvent the IPO auditing and reporting rules to allow them to scam purchasers^w^w "streamline listing the stock"?

I always figured it was "We're old, and need money, but can't raise a round."

If it was a viable business, just do an IPO.

Re: The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

#57
post #38

Isn't the goal of an SPAC to basically circumvent the IPO auditing and reporting rules to allow them to scam purchasers^w^w "streamline listing the stock"?

Yes. People will try and come up with long winded justifications for them but there's really nothing deeper going on. Failing companies want to dump shares on retail investors but don't want to go through IPO due diligence and reporting, hence SPACs.

Re: The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

#58

I'm always somewhat amazed that Chamath Palihapitiya doesn't have a much worse reputation: 1. My understanding is that he was the primary initial architect of "A/B testing for engagement" at Facebook that turned social media into a tribalistic, outrage generating machine (nothing engages like hate), and that the rest of SV essentially copied. I think this trajectory would have happened regardless, but he was first, s…

The interesting thing is a few years ago (before becoming the "SPAC King") he did a media tour where he criticized Venture Capital as being a "massive Ponzi scheme". [1] Then he went all-in on SPACs... Which ended up being the ultimate Ponzi. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/start-up-economy-is-a-ponzi-...

How are SPACs a ponzi? My understanding is that its a pool of money that gets raised to essentially take a private organization public through a merger with (theoretically) less red tape and cost. You buy into the SPAC without knowing exactly what is being bought but at the time of purchase you have the option to redeem you investment. There are other clauses if the organizer can't find a suitable takeover target.

You can criticize the fees or the fact that they are essentially trying to get around regulatory and reporting requirements. They did well a few years ago now they are doing poorly. But how is it a ponzi? Not everything that loses money is a ponzi

Re: The median return of 2022's SPAC mergers: -82%

#60

I'm always somewhat amazed that Chamath Palihapitiya doesn't have a much worse reputation: 1. My understanding is that he was the primary initial architect of "A/B testing for engagement" at Facebook that turned social media into a tribalistic, outrage generating machine (nothing engages like hate), and that the rest of SV essentially copied. I think this trajectory would have happened regardless, but he was first, s…

Having a billion dollars in your bank account is all the reputation that is needed. He could murder someone in broad daylight and would still have a long line of Twitter simps and "influencers" cheering him on.
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