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How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

economist.com

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Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#51

Post by vel0city »

shubb wrote: post #39
vel0city wrote: post #13

Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…

One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should. So, if there is a bubble in the chip supply pipeline, auto manufacture doesn't happen. If there is undersupply of precursor chemicals it takes a while to make vaccines at scale... What you are talking about makes me think of the very long lead product…

Good thing there's a university only a couple of miles away from the Richardson fab that specializes in training semiconductor and nano-fabrication which has quite a large international reach which has been massively expanding every year for the last few decades.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#52

Post by justapassenger »

fidotron wrote: post #12

While I have some sympathy for the policy makers attempting to do this they do appear to be oblivious that to the outside world, especially their allies, the meta-lesson is any critical industry will eventually be onshored by the printing of hundreds of billions to price you out if necessary. This isn't a recipe for long term peaceful co-operation. It's ridiculous to criticise China on one hand, and then emulate ever…

Geopolitics are not after school specials about friendship being only thing that matters in life.

Critical industries are, well, critical. Securing redundancy for critical things is risk management 101, even on much smaller scale than geopolitics.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#53

Post by javajosh »

merman wrote: post #14
javajosh wrote: post #6

When these types of things are funded one always gets the sinking feeling that the money is just getting stolen and/or wasted by savvy insiders who know how to write grants or who know the right people. In fact, I think that's a reasonable assumption and some proof is required to show that it is not the case.

Good thing there are $200B worth of proof already. At what point would you be satisfied, if 100% of semi manufacturing took place in the US and 0 chips were manufactured elsewhere the instant the grants were handed out?

It's odd but comments like yours would normally elicit something like anger, now elicit sadness. Why do you take this tone? Why do you willfully misunderstand my point? Why not take a charitable view?

I'd be happy if even half of that money actually went into a fab, and only half was wasted on lawyers, fees, studies, and wherever else free money manages to go rather than to actually building things. The timeline doesn't matter, nor does the fraction of on-shore chips made. You created those measurements out of thin air.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#54

Post by vel0city »

Spooky23 wrote: post #36
bob1029 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...

It’s the worst business to work for. You’ll work 60 hours a week for shitty pay, and be the Yoda of some tool. In 10 years there will be a new magic tool. Then you start learning the Starbucks menu.

There are loads of jobs related to the fabs surrounding them though. Lots of companies designing the things these fabs will end up actually producing, lots of testing the things these fabs produce, lots of integrating these things the fabs produce. The technology services supporting those companies making the designs. Etc.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#55

Post by nordsieck »

javajosh wrote: post #46
nordsieck wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When these types of things are funded one always gets the sinking feeling that the money is just getting stolen and/or wasted by savvy insiders who know how to write grants or who know the right people. That's definitely the feeling I get when I see the grants that get given out for Broadband to underserved areas. So much money gets spent on infrastructure for not much actual benefit. Hopefully these fabs don't fol…

It would be cool if there was a neighborhood watch but for projects and/or money. Like, a couple dozen people in the community who watch that specific money like a hawk, to make sure it benefits the community and moves along at a good pace and the actors don't take advantage.

One good thing with broadband is that the FCC is making companies publish service maps.

I've heard from multiple people that they've looked at the map and forced companies to make amendments when they claim to offer service in an area but don't actually.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#56

Post by cezart »

hospitalJail wrote: post #37
edgyquant wrote: post #4

At the very least it’s several hundred billion dollars worth of real. We’ll have to see if the policy sustains itself or not.

Does that include the several hundred billion dollars from CHIPS act? That was a sad moment last year, I am extremely concerned we Zombified our tech sector.

Can you please elaborate what the issues are, and what do you mean by Zombified?

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#57

Post by petsfed »

shubb wrote: post #39
vel0city wrote: post #13

Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…

One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should. So, if there is a bubble in the chip supply pipeline, auto manufacture doesn't happen. If there is undersupply of precursor chemicals it takes a while to make vaccines at scale... What you are talking about makes me think of the very long lead product…

This is explicitly why Boise State University, an otherwise middle-to-low-tier research university boasts such a high-quality materials engineering department. BSU actually hold some of their intro-to-materials-science courses at the Boise Micron fab so Micron employees can work towards said degrees without missing as much work to commute between the two locations.

Edit to add:

I've met a few people who are aware of US military supply chain rules, and assume it means "oh, chinese $doodad must be crap, that's why we don't give them to our troops", when the reality is just as you said. Supply chain bubbles can be massively disruptive, so its a real strategic blunder to outsource critical components to the country we have designated as our number one rival. I'm not saying we're set up for a trade war, but we are well past due to calculate the cost of increasing short-term profits. Is a quarterly decrease in operating costs from consolidating fabs worth risking a massive disruption when that single fab is knocked out? Given the volumes that even small fabs do, I argue that quarterly increase is not at all worth it.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#60

Post by tylerfontaine »

qbasic_forever wrote: post #42
tylerfontaine wrote: post #9

I live in a relatively small city that has a 30B phased wafer fab project under way, and an another separate 5B wafer fab project underway, and plans for at least one more in the next couple years. Anecdotal, of course, but there's some real things being built for sure.

Is that a city that TSMC is already throwing under the bus and saying the American workers there are lazy and not cut out for their harder Taiwanese business/work ethic? https://9to5mac.com/2023/06/29/tsmc-arizona-chip-plant-delay... I don't think any of this onshoring, if it ever actually happens, is going to be a net positive for the areas that host the fabs. TSMC is already sending hundreds of their own workers ov…

Nope, I'm in Texas and not Arizona. We've already got two wafer plants here. The largest projects are expansions on those, so these companies are pretty familiar with the available workforce at this point.
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