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Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

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Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#51

Post by felipellrocha »

henrikschroder wrote: post #22
wenc wrote: post #9

I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to res…

> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technol…

You are missing the point... The Apple Vision also attempts to solve a problem: Create a computing interface that interacts with the real world.

Will it be successful? No one knows. Pretending that they do by either calling it a success or not a success this early is bound to be wrong.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#52

Post by chickdilla »

henrikschroder wrote: post #22
wenc wrote: post #9

I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to res…

> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technol…

> It was expensive, but not 10x more expensive.

In 2007 carriers were giving away phones for free to those signing up for a plan, and the initial $500 price tag was mocked and lambasted as being way too expensive. There were all kinds of phones that it was far more than 10x pricier than.

> VR headsets are a gimmick, a novelty, they bought one, tried it, put it on a shelf.

Most shelf ridden cast off Quest 2s are there because they were found to be grainy and nausea inducing. A leap in latency and resolution could very well prompt revaluation in the space.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#53

Post by layer8 »

wenc wrote: post #46
layer8 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But are you willing to wear a front-heavy pound of tech on your head all day for that? Maybe you are, but I wager few will. The counter then is that the tech will get more compact and lighter. Well, maybe, or maybe not as much, let’s see in a couple of years.

If there’s a good “why”, the “how” is merely iteration and execution. Apple has been known to be extremely good at materials science and hardware engineering so if it’s within the bounds of physics and economies I don’t think that’s remotely a concern.

Yeah, I think the bounds of physics and engineering will be a serious challenge.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#54

Post by ekam »

henrikschroder wrote: post #42
ekam wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple isn't there right now, but the ultimate goal appears to replace computers, phones, and monitors, which is why Vision has a laptop card and operates independently. It's not born of the same concept as eg, a Meta quest which is more gaming oriented.

> but the ultimate goal appears to replace computers, phones, and monitors This is a completely empty statement. That's a flimsy corporate wish. Do you not understand how completely different the introduction of the iPhone into the mobile phone market was, compared to the introduction of Apple Vision to the VR market? The iPhone introduced with concrete examples of what it could do that the competition could not, it…

I agree that the Vision is half baked right now, but the point is they aren't seeking to compete with the VR headsets or market today. Unlike other VR headsets, Apple seeks to augment, eg your home office by replacing your TV, laptop, etc. I haven't used the headset yet as it will be released next year, but first impressions uniformly attest that the headset is concretely able to perform those functions. If the execution is there over the next years, I would expect this to greatly improve every experience that is screen-related, such as having a 3D IMAX screen in your house instead of a TV

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#55

Post by wenc »

layer8 wrote: post #53
wenc wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there’s a good “why”, the “how” is merely iteration and execution. Apple has been known to be extremely good at materials science and hardware engineering so if it’s within the bounds of physics and economies I don’t think that’s remotely a concern.

Yeah, I think the bounds of physics and engineering will be a serious challenge.

I have a different view on that.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#56

Post by CharlesW »

henrikschroder wrote: post #15
i386 wrote: post #3

John C. Dvorak is famous for bad takes. But if you’re alluding to Apple Vision being successful because he was an iPhone naysayer, you’re wrong. Reality doesn’t work that way. The jury is still out on VR and it changes little when Apple enters the market at that price point and there’s not a killer problem for it.

I agree. The iPhone came out in 2007, and that year over a billion cell phones were sold. That's a solid market that Apple entered, and the iPhone brought obvious improvements over existing devices. Apple solved the problem of wanting a large screen, a full keyboard, in a small device. That was an existing pain-point, they solved it, everyone understood that this was the future of cell phones. In 2022, there were 20…

> The iPhone came out in 2007, and that year over a billion cell phones were sold.

Most of which were dumbphones — in 2007, 122 million smartphones were sold worldwide, which represented only about 10.6% of cell phones. In other words, the iPhone entered a product segment in its infancy, then helped define and grow it just as Apple Vision will.

> What exactly is the Apple Vision replacing in an obviously better way?

This sounds like Dvorak in 2007, who clearly looked at the iPhone as a "faster horse". Like the iPhone in 2007, Apple Vision will never have greater unrealized potential than it has today. This first Apple Vision Pro will sell fewer units than any subsequent generations, and that's fine — it's a line in the sand, a call to arms, and a place for innovators to play.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#57

Post by notJim »

> On February 19, 1984, in an article in The San Francisco Examiner, Dvorak listed the mouse as one of many reasons Apple Inc.'s Macintosh computer might not be successful: "The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ‘mouse’. There is no evidence that people want to use these things."

Incredible. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Dvorak

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#58

Post by indymike »

This one was not John Dvorak's best predictions, and he really should have seen this one coming.

The PC was a general purpose device that replaced a whole office full of fairly expensive specialty devices (word processor, fax, teletype, calculator, intercom system, etc...). iPhone was no different. General purpose that could replace a bunch of expensive specialty devices (anyone else have a PDA, phone, music player, camera, GPS, etc...) at a personal level. It was obvious iPhone would succeed and it was equally obvious that Android was running the Wintel play and Apple was playing the Apple play with iPhone.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#59

Post by henrikschroder »

LordDragonfang wrote: post #47
henrikschroder wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The iPhone came out in 2007, and that year over a billion cell phones were sold. That's a solid market that Apple entered, and the iPhone brought obvious improvements over existing devices. Apple solved the problem of wanting a large screen, a full keyboard, in a small device. That was an existing pain-point, they solved it, everyone understood that this was the future of cell phones. In 2022, there were 20…

Not to put too fine a point on this, but by talking about the size of the market, you do realize you're committing the exact same mistake as Dvorak, but in reverse: >Apple Inc.'s past successes have been in markets that were emerging or moribund. Its biggest hit has been the iPod. Recency bias aside, Apple clearly has experience to take on markets like this. >doesn't solve any existing obvious pain points. I mean, if…

> They wanted to wait another 5-10 years to get the miniaturization and price down so it can just be a pair of glasses. But they don't have that luxury; Zuck is trying to own the market, and Apple needs developers now rather than later. They know this device won't have high volume (and they've told shareholders that for months) but they're investing for 5-10 years from now when the tech is at the point where it does.

This is the best defense of the device that I've seen. I can absolutely see the appeal of AR in a pair of glasses, that's a form factor and convenience that makes sense.

But how will Apple retain excitement for this device and retain developers doing stuff for it, if the install base is tiny compared to the competition? Over ten years? Once this thing ends up on people's shelves, why should any company develop for it? "Trust me bro, Apple Vision Air 5 is finally going to kick off!"

The iPhone introduced the app store, which allowed for a literal gold rush, it suddenly became a whole lot easier for developers to earn money for their software, of course developers flocked to it, even though the install base was small. There's no such mechanism in place this time, all the other VR headsets have app stores. So what's the draw? All the Apple Vision owners are rich, so you can price your apps higher?

I understand the long term goals of Apple, they have to make this bet in case VR becomes the next revolution, but VR has been a solution looking for a problem for thirty years now at least, and this product is not going to become successful, and yet this thread, and every other one like it, is full of people predicting the VR revolution.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#60

Post by [deleted] »

henrikschroder wrote: post #50
wenc wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume Apple is entering the VR market. I already think this is the wrong take. To me the market is still being discovered. There are many products whose business models are not what is apparent. We make category mistakes when we pigeonhole new products into known existing categories. Right off the bat for me the Vision Pro is a multi monitor replacement that you can travel with — that’s just the one thing that h…

> To me the market is still being discovered. The *WHOLE POINT* of this HN post is to poo-poo Dvorak's take on the iPhone *AS IF* the introduction of Apple Vision is comparable to the iPhone's introduction. "iPhone critics were wrong then, therefore Apple vision critics are wrong now" is *NOT AN ARGUMENT*. It's emotional manipulation where you are supposed to reminisce about the glorious smartphone revolution that Ap…

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