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Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

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Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#51

Post by gerdesj »

H8crilA wrote: post #3

The winter was exceptionally warm, and no one could really predict that. But putting that aside, this whole episode was making me uneasy. To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. I think they simply do not believe that bombs can ever land on their own roofs. The understanding of foreign governments and their real intentions is often at a comical level, even when applied to actors that…

I lived in West Germany off and on in the '70s-'90s. I am a Brit. If you recall, that period is referred to as the Cold War - Mum and Dad were both soldiers and we got posted abroad a lot. Nowadays I have a Pole as an employee, who lives in Poland. That would have been unthinkable back in the day. I pay Thomasz the same rate as my local employees. He deals with IT snags in Britain the same way I do - over the blower and with remote access tools, such as Mesh Central.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#52

Post by practice9 »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #29
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values. You can't possibly tell me with a straight face that your argument is "Germany didn't know that Russia invading 3 countries was bad and it hoped Russia would come around if it just kept buying gas from them and pumping trillions in their economy which Russia spent on its military would make them more peaceful" . It's sa…

Germany did not ignore Russian military invasions, which can be easily demonstrated by specific actions that German government took at that time. Notably those actions were not much different from what USA or other European countries except a few with anti-Russian paranoia did. Besides, there were two, not three invasions. Chechnya is not a country.

> Chechnya is not a country.

There was a Chechen Republic of Ichkeria that existed until getting slaughtered, occupied, and retrospectively written out of the books by Russia.

Yeltsin (and later Putin) was a baddie that West hoped to trade with, so they were willing to push aside the issue of Chechnya calling it an internal conflict.

But in reality the level of Russian war crimes was unparalleled, sometimes even worse than what's happening in Ukraine.

Internationally no high-ranking Russian officials or military officers were ever prosecuted or actually condemned for these war crimes.

Most countries have turned a blind eye and didn't act with urgency: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2020...

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#53

Post by Mlller »

tuukkah wrote: post #32
Mlller wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Eastern Europe has been parroting […] Germany stuck its fingers in its ears” Or perhaps Germany couldnʼt hear them, because their actions spoke louder than their words – a majority of Eastern European countries had made themselves more dependent on Russian gas than Germany: - Hungary: 110.4 percent - Latvia: 100.1 percent - Finland: 92.4 percent - Estonia: 86.5 percent - Czechia: 86.0 percent - Slovenia: 81.0 percen…

Your list does not illustrate what you claim. E.g. Finland was not at all dependent on Russian gas, because Finland does not use much gas, so 92.4 percent of nothing. Meanwhile, Germany's gas imports were huge and you cannot leave 58.9 percent of your population to freeze in the winter anyway. EDIT: Also, Finland has this in the laws: > There is an alternative fuel obligation, so that in the event of a gas supply dis…

Sorry for my unclarity, but I understand the point at issue (of GP and this thread) to be how a prolongation of mutual economic relations with Russia was not justifiable morally, not how well a country could cope with an abrupt end of these relations economically or in terms of the well-being of their own population. You seem to argue with regard to the latter, and I would concur, although the linked article shows that after Germanyʼs 58.9 percent went down to zero, they either, in fact, could let their population freeze (household consumption went down) or got over it in other ways (a considerable part of the 58.9 percent was industrial consumption).

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#54

Post by [deleted] »

Mlller wrote: post #24
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, G…

“Eastern Europe has been parroting […] Germany stuck its fingers in its ears” Or perhaps Germany couldnʼt hear them, because their actions spoke louder than their words – a majority of Eastern European countries had made themselves more dependent on Russian gas than Germany: - Hungary: 110.4 percent - Latvia: 100.1 percent - Finland: 92.4 percent - Estonia: 86.5 percent - Czechia: 86.0 percent - Slovenia: 81.0 percen…

[deleted]

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#55

Post by throw0101b »

pydry wrote: post #38
nr2x wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet the USA and Poland were screaming at the top of their lungs to not do nord stream and the German public didn’t care. At all.

Of course they didn't care. The USA were screaming because they wanted to flog more expensive LNG to Germany and Poland was screaming because they wanted their transit fees. The US screamed so loudly that Nord Stream exploded.

> The USA were screaming because they wanted to flog more expensive LNG […]

The US has been screaming at DE since the 1980s, decades before fracking and LNG was a thing:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod_pipeli...

* https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/03/blinken-secretary-state...

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#57

Post by nr2x »

throw0101b wrote: post #55
pydry wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course they didn't care. The USA were screaming because they wanted to flog more expensive LNG to Germany and Poland was screaming because they wanted their transit fees. The US screamed so loudly that Nord Stream exploded.

> The USA were screaming because they wanted to flog more expensive LNG […] The US has been screaming at DE since the 1980s, decades before fracking and LNG was a thing: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod_pipeli... * https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/03/blinken-secretary-state...

No, no, no - that would mean there wasn’t a deep strand of sympathy for Russian ethnic-totalitarianism at play at the highest levels of the German establishment.

And of course it’s not like AfD actually, exists, or that the German security apparatus is riddled with Russian spies and Nazis.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#58

Post by chrysler »

Mlller wrote: post #53
tuukkah wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your list does not illustrate what you claim. E.g. Finland was not at all dependent on Russian gas, because Finland does not use much gas, so 92.4 percent of nothing. Meanwhile, Germany's gas imports were huge and you cannot leave 58.9 percent of your population to freeze in the winter anyway. EDIT: Also, Finland has this in the laws: > There is an alternative fuel obligation, so that in the event of a gas supply dis…

Sorry for my unclarity, but I understand the point at issue (of GP and this thread) to be how a prolongation of mutual economic relations with Russia was not justifiable morally, not how well a country could cope with an abrupt end of these relations economically or in terms of the well-being of their own population. You seem to argue with regard to the latter, and I would concur, although the linked article shows th…

The point is whether Russia could extort countries (eg: prevent from sending military aid to Ukraine) or not. While a little over half of all gas in Germany came from Russia, Germany was among countries with the highest proportion of gas in total fuel consumption.

In comparison, countries like Finland indeed got virtually all their gas from Russia, but that was only a few percent of total fuel consumption and couldn't be used to extort them.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#59

Post by redeeman »

H8crilA wrote: post #3

The winter was exceptionally warm, and no one could really predict that. But putting that aside, this whole episode was making me uneasy. To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. I think they simply do not believe that bombs can ever land on their own roofs. The understanding of foreign governments and their real intentions is often at a comical level, even when applied to actors that…

> That means sacrificing something small (like a gas shortage)

okay.. tell that to the ones that simply cannot afford it

> for something valuable (no major war in Europe).

/me looks at Ukraine: there seems to be a war... /me looks at globe.. in... Europe.

is the war lasting longer because the EU and US sends arms to Ukraine?

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#60

Post by redeeman »

jltsiren wrote: post #50
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, G…

Chechnya was a civil war within the internationally recognized borders of Russia, not an invasion. The only foreign power that had recognized independent Chechnya was Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. There was a general feeling in the early and mid-2000s that Russia was finally changing for the better. The economy was growing and the quality of life was improving for many Russians. While no one mistook Putin for a dem…

but what is rational? a great great many people in Denmark obliterated the savings they spent a few decades making just to make it through this mild winter only freezing moderately, some even having to sell their homes and a large number (small percentage, but still large number) looking into retiring on the public pension that is not much. Would they be better off if the west had not gone all in on the anti-russia sanctions and funding ukraine?

the people in the US/EU that were crying snot because russians were streaming gas burners running 24/7 while some Europeans had to equip their winter jackets in their homes.

the extreme amount of wet firewood being burned smoking up entire neighborhoods so that people would not freeze to death. Are the people inhaling that smoke better off? is it rational for them to cheer "putin man bad" (asserting that they did, i do not know if they did)

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