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Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

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Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#51

Post by _hypx »

wg0 wrote: post #13

The other few things possible in next few years for past few years are: 1. Fusion 2. Self driving cars. 3. Ubiquitous, generally available and stable 8192 bit quantum computers. 4. High energy density grid scale batteries. Just few more "this maybe the... what could revolutionize..." articles away. What we forget is that it is in these people's business interest (executives making such statements) to state the exagge…

Grid scale energy storage is basically solved once you realize that hydrogen storage is an option already. It's in the same boat as when photovoltaics got very cheap, but skeptics continued to deny that possibility for some years afterwards.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#52

Post by wg0 »

xbmcuser wrote: post #45
majikaja wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>we just see a cooling off of other endeavors as LLM becomes a known in terms of its strengths and weaknesses and it’s abilities reach a natural limit which is still general useful. This is my prediction If the training set is just the internet, it will be not much different than someone who spends all their lives in their room in front of their computer.

I don't get all the negativity unlike most humans LLM can be made to discard bad or incorrect data. Quickly transition to new ways of doing something. A human spending all their life in a room in front of the computer would not can not go through all the millions of scientific papers and journals. They would not look at unlimited amount of code or go through all the past and present law of every country . No human is…

Ask any LLM about the cheese inventors in far East china. It'll make something up very plausible. Then all you have to do is to dig through libraries and historic records to verify that this all really is true and is really rooted in reality.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#53

Post by nsxwolf »

jy1 wrote: post #28
ckemere wrote: post #23

Several comments have touched on this, but wouldn't you define an AGI as something that could learn to drive a car? I think every (reasonable ( person understands self driving is >10 years away. So shouldn't AGI be?

What makes you say self driving is 10 years away?

5 years ago L5 autonomy was being released any day now, but now nobody talks about it anymore. It seems like a handful of self driving cars have been driving around in circles in a couple cities forever now and everyone just keeps giving the same demo.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#55

Post by mtlmtlmtlmtl »

wg0 wrote: post #13

The other few things possible in next few years for past few years are: 1. Fusion 2. Self driving cars. 3. Ubiquitous, generally available and stable 8192 bit quantum computers. 4. High energy density grid scale batteries. Just few more "this maybe the... what could revolutionize..." articles away. What we forget is that it is in these people's business interest (executives making such statements) to state the exagge…

Not sure when you last upgraded your pc.

Personally I'm running the latest roomtemp superconducting, 4Giqb quantum memristor computer. It even remotely drives my fusion-powered car over the quantum internet!

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#56

Post by useruser125524 »

soulofmischief wrote: post #46
PheonixPharts wrote: post #41

As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…

Ultimately you are just a system who maintains homeostasis by modeling your environment and reprojecting it to find patterns which can be used to make actions with predictable outcomes. Is this intelligence? Is there only one correct way to achieve this goal? What do you believe intelligence to be?

Ultimately we're just a collection of atoms obeying the laws of physics, but reducing all the complexity that entails doesn't really accomplish anything

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#57

Post by lexandstuff »

I get that AGI has a formal definition, but if I take the words "Artificial General Intelligence" on their own, I would say they describe GPT4 perfectly. It can plan my holiday, write a cover letter, code up scripts, explain music theory to me, etc. It is artificial, clearly a form of intelligence, and has a general application.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#58

Post by nextos »

soulofmischief wrote: post #46
PheonixPharts wrote: post #41

As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…

Ultimately you are just a system who maintains homeostasis by modeling your environment and reprojecting it to find patterns which can be used to make actions with predictable outcomes. Is this intelligence? Is there only one correct way to achieve this goal? What do you believe intelligence to be?

There's a good summary in the Introduction to Kevin Murphy's second tome [1]. He quotes Josh Tenenbaum, who said: "Intelligence is not just about pattern recognition and function approximation. It’s about modeling the world".

I agree, and I think Goodman & Tenennaum [2] is a great place to see other things that may pop up in the road to AGI. LLMs are great, but they do too much at once. I think moving towards AGI requires some form of symbolic reasoning, possibly combined with LLMs, which may play the role of intuition and kitchen-sink memory.

[1] https://probml.github.io/pml-book/book2.html

[2] https://probmods.org

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#59

Post by signatoremo »

wg0 wrote: post #13

The other few things possible in next few years for past few years are: 1. Fusion 2. Self driving cars. 3. Ubiquitous, generally available and stable 8192 bit quantum computers. 4. High energy density grid scale batteries. Just few more "this maybe the... what could revolutionize..." articles away. What we forget is that it is in these people's business interest (executives making such statements) to state the exagge…

You cherry pick examples that fit a narrative.

Many things thought to be a distant dream have now become reality - cheap solar electricity, pocket computer for everyone, mRNA vaccine, affordable electric car with acceptable range, reusable rocket, satellite based broadband internet, image recognition, translation, and now generative AI.

Why didn’t we hear much about them from CEOs before they were available?

Also, which CEO promised fusion being available in the next few years? Or only wildly optimistic scientists?

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#60

Post by danaris »

dougmwne wrote: post #10
hderms wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well in real terms, isn't all it takes is something that's a convincing enough forgery? Like why the turing test was considered interesting at one point. I don't think drawing a line is necessary for us to quickly become caught off guard by developments in this space. For the record, I don't believe we're close to AGI but I'm also pretty far from knowing anything about that field.

Seems like a no lose bet no matter the odds. If you win, life goes on and you can collect a bit of money. If you lose, money becomes worthless and the surface of the earth gets transformed into a computing substrate.

This presupposes that "AGI" means:

1) The first AGI we create will immediately break free of our control

2) It will either have already been given, or will find some way to take, control of physical systems

3) It will create the Singularity

4) Its goals will be to advance itself at our expense

None of these are remotely givens. Even if we grant that AGI is possible with our current level of technology (which is also not at all a given), the Singularity is nothing but science fiction. It's an interesting idea, but there's no real reason to think it's close to what an AGI's capabilities would be like in reality.

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