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How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

michalpaszkiewicz.co.uk

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Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#51
post #12
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or to just imagine a 1000 boxes with the same problem formulation

This doesn't do anything for me. (I understand the Monty Hall problem, I just don't see how changing the number of doors makes a difference to anyone's intuition.)

I've often found it easier to understand things intuitively by putting an idea to the slippery slope test. If such & such were true, imagine changing some parameters to an extreme, how absurd does it become? For monotonic functions it's useful

Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#52

The thing that is often de-emphasised in the presentation of the problem, in order to make it seem more mysteriously paradoxical, is that the presenter knows where the car is and this knowledge is always used perfectly. If the question always ended with "remember: Monty knows where the car is and will use this information", it would be more obvious. Imagine a universe with many simultaneous Monty Hall clones playing…

The problem I always struggle with is the premise that presenter not only knows which box is the prize, but also does not want you to win. In other words, there should never be a scenario where the show host gives you an opportunity to switch boxes unless you have already chosen the prize box, in which your choice should be to not change boxes. I guess I just naturally assumed that game shows don't want contestants to win and the odds are against you.

Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#53

For me the hangup was always the hidden rule: host won’t open a door with a car. That is unstated and remains unstated even in modern discussions of the problem (see Pinker’s “Rationality”). Once explicitly states the outcome becomes intuitive.

Yes, in many formulations the unstated assumptions that the host (a) will always open a door after your initial pick, and (b) that it's always one without a car behind it. Making the assumptions explicitly makes the solution and intuition much simpler.

If your initial choice was a car, the host can open any of the remaining doors, but if your initial choice was a goat this forces the host to reveal extra information to you (namely which of the remaining doors contains the car). Since your initial probability of picking a goat was 2/3, there is 2/3 probability that the host will reveal the prize door for you.

This is why the puzzle is only loosely based on a TV show. No real TV or other iterated games will work like this, since the optimal strategy is pretty simple. In a real TV show, the host would mix up his strategy (never revealing the car door, but only occasionally opening a door after the candidates choice). In that case it's not possible to work out an optimal strategy without additional assumptions or clues wrt the host behavior. E.g. he might be biased to open a remaining door with higher probability when the initial choice was correct, to increase suspension for the viewers, in which the dominant strategy is actually to not switch. But in a real TV show or iterated game, the host behavior is likely not deterministic.

Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#54

For me the hangup was always the hidden rule: host won’t open a door with a car. That is unstated and remains unstated even in modern discussions of the problem (see Pinker’s “Rationality”). Once explicitly states the outcome becomes intuitive.

I do not think that when it's explicitly stated it becomes intuitive for everyone and that adds a further wrinkle. Many people will still get it wrong, even when the problem is stated correctly. However, if the rule is not explicitly stated, how can the player know that the rule exists? Perhaps "Monty" is evil and will not always open a door, "evil Monty" will only open a door when he knows you've chosen correctly. I…

Yup. Wikipedia contains a discussion on host behavior: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_host_...

In fact, the Wikipedia Monty Hall article discusses pretty much any aspect of the problem that anyone has ever brought up in any Monty Hall forum thread or blog post.

Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the question always ended with "remember: Monty knows where the car is and will use this information", it would be more obvious. And perhaps also, “remember: Monty will always open a door, and the contestant knows it”. Makes me wonder if there were similar shows where the host can choose not to open a door.

That presumably quickly gets into a game-theoretic double-triple-etc-bluff affair where you have to assume the host is using his knowledge against you. If you choose the door with the car, the host will open another door to tempt you, so then you don't switch, unlike in traditional Monty Hall. And if he didn't open a door, well, that means you choose a goat, so you should switch for a 50% chance. Except the host know…

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_host_...

Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#56
What made it clear for me was this :

Since there are 2 empty boxes, this means that if you pick some box out of 3, you will have 2/3 chances of picking an empty box.

However, the revealed box will always be empty, so in both of these outcomes the revealed box will be the other empty one.

So in 2/3 of cases, the pair (picked,revealed) will contain both of the empty boxes, and so switching will get you the prize

Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#57

The thing that is often de-emphasised in the presentation of the problem, in order to make it seem more mysteriously paradoxical, is that the presenter knows where the car is and this knowledge is always used perfectly. If the question always ended with "remember: Monty knows where the car is and will use this information", it would be more obvious. Imagine a universe with many simultaneous Monty Hall clones playing…

> If the question always ended with "remember: Monty knows where the car is and will use this information", it would be more obvious. And perhaps also, “remember: Monty will always open a door, and the contestant knows it”. Makes me wonder if there were similar shows where the host can choose not to open a door.

The puzzle is is commonly stated is not how any TV show ever worked. In a real (repeated) TV show the host behavior will be non-deterministic, and will sometimes be benign, sometimes adverse, to increase the suspense and ratings. If the host follows a deterministic set of rules (as is usually implicitly assumed in the puzzle version), the optimal strategy is pretty easy to work out.

Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#58
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think their explanation is a lot easier to understand "When we pick the original box, we know that the probability that the keys will be in there is 1/3. The probability that the keys will not be in the box you originally chose is 1 - 1/3 = 2/3. Just from this knowledge alone, you could decide that you will always switch, since the probability that the other boxes have the keys is 2/3."

>= 2/3. Just from this knowledge alone, you could decide that you will always switch, since the probability that the other boxes have the keys is 2/3. Your sentence the particular way you worded it is not the correct mathematical model. The player does not get to switch to BOTH OF THE OTHER 2 boxes as an alternative to just the 1st box. Therefore the 2/3rd probability doesn't apply. Where the non-intuitive 2/3rds pro…

> Your sentence the particular way you worded it is not the correct mathematical model.

It wasn't really my sentence I just quoted the article. Nonetheless I disagree with you. The probability that the other boxes have the key is 2/3 and that is all that really matters. Opening a door doesn't change anything.

Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#59

The thing that is often de-emphasised in the presentation of the problem, in order to make it seem more mysteriously paradoxical, is that the presenter knows where the car is and this knowledge is always used perfectly. If the question always ended with "remember: Monty knows where the car is and will use this information", it would be more obvious. Imagine a universe with many simultaneous Monty Hall clones playing…

The problem I always struggle with is the premise that presenter not only knows which box is the prize, but also does not want you to win. In other words, there should never be a scenario where the show host gives you an opportunity to switch boxes unless you have already chosen the prize box, in which your choice should be to not change boxes. I guess I just naturally assumed that game shows don't want contestants t…

> there should never be a scenario where the show host gives you an opportunity to switch boxes unless you have already chosen the prize box

The host always gives you an opportunity to switch boxes.

Re: How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

#60
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the question always ended with "remember: Monty knows where the car is and will use this information", it would be more obvious. And perhaps also, “remember: Monty will always open a door, and the contestant knows it”. Makes me wonder if there were similar shows where the host can choose not to open a door.

The puzzle is is commonly stated is not how any TV show ever worked. In a real (repeated) TV show the host behavior will be non-deterministic, and will sometimes be benign, sometimes adverse, to increase the suspense and ratings. If the host follows a deterministic set of rules (as is usually implicitly assumed in the puzzle version), the optimal strategy is pretty easy to work out.

> If the host follows a deterministic set of rules (as is usually implicitly assumed in the puzzle version), the optimal strategy is pretty easy to work out.

And yet it is the subject of endless discussions. The optimum strategy is pretty easy to work out, yet not widely believed.

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