The Tyranny of ‘The Plan' (2013) • Hacker News Board

Re: The Tyranny of ‘The Plan' (2013)

#51

Post by clairity » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 6:17 PM UTC

aidenn0 wrote: post #50

clairity wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no, the bullwhip effect is caused by uncertainty across coupled tasks along the critical path, no matter the level of detail of your plan. it's a statistical phenomenon that you can mitigate with other measures, like critical chain. the empire state building example shows that they reduced coupling by creating 4 separate, independent workflows, mitigating the bullwhip effect by roughly a factor of 4.

Yes, the bullwhip effect is caused by uncertainty across coupled tasks. A plan that doesn't reduce and manage uncertainty is bad. Not having a plan means there is uncertainty even when all of the information is there to determine the answer . The empire state building had a plan for obtaining steel from foundries at the velocity they needed. If one defines plan to mean "We schedule everything up front and then stick…

yes, another restatement of the distinction between 'plan' and 'workflow' as used in the talk.

Re: The Tyranny of ‘The Plan' (2013)

#52

Post by skedaddle » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 8:40 PM UTC

yamtaddle wrote: post #5

cs702 wrote: post #2

I found the OP very insightful, and would recommend reading and thinking about it. The lessons we can draw from the construction of The Empire State and other buildings of that era, before the advent of computers, are applicable to any large, capital-intensive project. My only reservation is that the OP fails to mention that some workers died during the construction of The Empire State building: According to the buil…

> No one here would want to finish a project faster if the cost would be measured in human lives. People—including some here—choose risk to life for greater productivity, all the time. Every advocate of going back to the office, in places without excellent public transit or walkability, is proposing to trade some serious micromorts for extra productivity (driving's dangerous).

Would you trade a dozen workmen's lives to get a development project done in under one year, rather than two? Are there actually many examples of tech businesses doing this right now? It doesn't seem to happen all the time. You're comparing multiple fatalities on a single year project to micromorts.

Re: The Tyranny of ‘The Plan' (2013)

#53

Post by samstave » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 10:10 PM UTC

cs702 wrote: post #2

I found the OP very insightful, and would recommend reading and thinking about it. The lessons we can draw from the construction of The Empire State and other buildings of that era, before the advent of computers, are applicable to any large, capital-intensive project. My only reservation is that the OP fails to mention that some workers died during the construction of The Empire State building: According to the buil…

There is a mini documentary on the conditions of the workers of the world cup qatar stadiums...

WRETCHED! I FN HATE the the world cup (FIFA) --> one of the most corrupt institutions.

The conditions of the living quarters for the workers for FIFA on the world cup builds are horrific.

Plus, they wouldnt pay the workers, would seize their passports and beat them.

No safety equipment, and extremely hot working conditions. Some of the temps were as high as 125F and these guys are doing really hard physical labor.

-

Actually there are a bunch of vids on the conditions:

https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=working+conditions+of+build...

Re: The Tyranny of ‘The Plan' (2013)

#54

Post by samstave » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 10:15 PM UTC

majormajor wrote: post #17

yamtaddle wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No one here would want to finish a project faster if the cost would be measured in human lives. People—including some here—choose risk to life for greater productivity, all the time. Every advocate of going back to the office, in places without excellent public transit or walkability, is proposing to trade some serious micromorts for extra productivity (driving's dangerous).

I think there's a pretty clear line in many places in today's western world about the difference between "directly causing death" and "causes fractional death." So comparing "directly dying from construction" to "commuting in a car" is a big reach. Diet, stress, physically-taxing-if-not-directly-fatal jobs, cancer-linked chemicals, pollution, etc. Tradeoffs made at both the societal and individual level every day. Ev…

"Pre-emptive Health Neutralization" was one of the names for the CIA's kill list eras (they always change the name for the kill list such that it compartmentalizes and rewrites the history of what is being said (narrative) - I believe that one was Reagan's name for it. I believe the kill-list name changes with each POTUS as stated by Annie Jacobson

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=joe+rogan+annie...

Re: The Tyranny of ‘The Plan' (2013)

#55

Post by samstave » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 10:19 PM UTC

kragen wrote: post #48

majormajor wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a pretty clear line in many places in today's western world about the difference between "directly causing death" and "causes fractional death." So comparing "directly dying from construction" to "commuting in a car" is a big reach. Diet, stress, physically-taxing-if-not-directly-fatal jobs, cancer-linked chemicals, pollution, etc. Tradeoffs made at both the societal and individual level every day. Ev…

i don't understand why you think directly dying from having a steel i-beam fall on you is so different from directly dying from having a toyota hilux t-bone you in your civic, but you say it's 'a big reach' aren't these both random 'accidents that could've happened to anyone' do you maybe think that the foreman on a construction site sometimes picks one of the employees and orders him to get killed that day or someth…

Ill never forget;

I was a Title Runner when I was 18 in Reno. The Clarion had been purchased, and renamed Atlantis - and they were adding on/remodeling it...

I was driving by and there was a crane lifting a pile of I-Beams to the top of the tower... and as I was driving, I looked and thought "Damn, that would suck if they dropped that"

THE CABLE IMMEDIATELY BROKE and all the beams fell like 15 stories!!!

I got really freaked out and said "Ill never focus on disasters like that again."

Luckily nobody was injured, but I was mentally scarred.

Re: The Tyranny of ‘The Plan' (2013)

#56

Post by skedaddle » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:06 PM UTC

atoav wrote: post #36

cs702 wrote: post #2

I found the OP very insightful, and would recommend reading and thinking about it. The lessons we can draw from the construction of The Empire State and other buildings of that era, before the advent of computers, are applicable to any large, capital-intensive project. My only reservation is that the OP fails to mention that some workers died during the construction of The Empire State building: According to the buil…

"No one in the developed world would want to finish a project faster and for less money if the cost has to be measured in human lives -- expect in extreme circumstances, like war." Are you sure of that? If the pandemic brought me any surprising new insight, then it would be how big the part of any given population is with hundred thousands dying if it just inconveniences them a little less. It needs no war, it needs…

Your example deals with something completely different. This issue is more akin to the meatpacking workers' deaths, which were very high at some companies. It does generally does happen in extreme circumstances, or when some singularly evil engineer / executive / firm is in charge. Your typical person though remains not a psychopath.