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Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time

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Re: Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time

#51

I wonder if this is to do with major vs minor breakthrough. Take physics. As I read it, modern fundamental physics is mostly some combination of general relativity and quantum mechanics, which are both early 20th century inventions. They weren't necessarily genius in particular in-depth analysis, rather they were genius new concepts that created a whole new blank canvas to fill in. What did the field look like just b…

It also seems unlikely that a patent clerk, even one with a PhD in physics, would be allowed to publish in a physics journal today. The gatekeeping has gotten a lot more strict.

https://theconversation.com/hate-the-peer-review-process-ein...

This article mentions Einstein being offended that his paper was submitted to peer review by Physical Review, and submitting it elsewhere instead:

"We (Mr. Rosen and I) had sent you our manuscript for publication and had not authorised you to show it to specialists before it is printed. I see no reason to address the – in any case erroneous – comments of your anonymous expert. On the basis of this incident I prefer to publish the paper elsewhere."

I just recently ended up there via this blog: https://experimentalhistory.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-fall...

which argues, not unconvincingly IMO, that peer review is a failed experiment which tries to stop bad science at the price of also stopping brilliant, unconventional science, where instead we would profit more from letting the scientific public do the sorting instead of hand-picked specialists. The author phrases it as science being as strong as its strongest links, not as weak as the weakest one, and we should do everything to get the brilliant crazy ideas.

Re: Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time

#52
post #44

A big part is that science has become very “sanitized”. Work on the wrong issues and you won’t get funding or will even get ridiculed out of a career. It’s not even just going against headline consensus issues that will get you in trouble. Any findings that overturn what a large group of scientists have spent their careers working on won’t be well received.

More than that though. Modern science research is a highly hierarchal and managed enterprise. It's led, or at least its funding is controlled by, the risk averse managerial class who can only think it terms of returns on investment.

Re: Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time

#53
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also seems unlikely that a patent clerk, even one with a PhD in physics, would be allowed to publish in a physics journal today. The gatekeeping has gotten a lot more strict.

Filters out a lot of kook theories but I'm sure some revolutionary stuff from some Goodwill Hunting genius has been filtered out as well.

Fun fact: peer review isn't gatekept. There are peer reviewed young earth creationist articles out there: https://www.cnet.com/culture/creationists-launch-peer-review...

So "peer review" isn't holding back kook theories at all on its own. At best, journal prestige is bolstered by it, which the journal can then translate into holding them back. The track record is a bit unclear, though.

Re: Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time

#54

I wonder if this is to do with major vs minor breakthrough. Take physics. As I read it, modern fundamental physics is mostly some combination of general relativity and quantum mechanics, which are both early 20th century inventions. They weren't necessarily genius in particular in-depth analysis, rather they were genius new concepts that created a whole new blank canvas to fill in. What did the field look like just b…

It also seems unlikely that a patent clerk, even one with a PhD in physics, would be allowed to publish in a physics journal today. The gatekeeping has gotten a lot more strict.

I disagree, at least in math there have been many instances recently where laymen (with a PhD) found some new and exciting results[0] and got to publish them, and I don't see why it would be any other way in physics.

Most recent example: https://www.quantamagazine.org/long-out-of-math-an-ai-progra...

Re: Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also seems unlikely that a patent clerk, even one with a PhD in physics, would be allowed to publish in a physics journal today. The gatekeeping has gotten a lot more strict.

https://theconversation.com/hate-the-peer-review-process-ein... This article mentions Einstein being offended that his paper was submitted to peer review by Physical Review, and submitting it elsewhere instead: "We (Mr. Rosen and I) had sent you our manuscript for publication and had not authorised you to show it to specialists before it is printed. I see no reason to address the – in any case erroneous – comments of…

> the price of also stopping brilliant, unconventional science, where instead we would profit more from letting the scientific public

Also currently on the front page: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34257150

In brief, London 'man off the street' solves 20k year Ice Age drawings mystery, published in Cambridge Archaeological Journal via contact with Durham professor. (And he is first author.)

I don't say that to disagree with you by the way - it's undoubtedly a rare example.

Re: Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time

#56
post #37

I get that in this context "patents" should be seen as the announcement of a new innovation, a surrogate of the innovation itself if you will, but setting that aside for a moment I'm struggling to imagine how patents could ever do anything but slow down disruption. Take any revolutionary discovery. Compare making it freely available to anyone, or limiting the availability to those holding the patents. EDIT: And perha…

> Compare making it freely available to anyone The original idea of a patent is that it must reveal the "secrets" behind an invention, in return for a "temporary monopoly". It's supposed to help diffusion of technology by publishing trade secrets, not to "incentivise" research. I think what is actually happening is that patents are made obtuse/opaque containing little meaningful information. They are then used as pla…

I lost a lot of faith in scientific research when I had to spend time reviewing patents in an early job.

The fact that I was looking into battery materials (a notoriously over-hyped sector) certainly didn't help, but some of the approved parents were laughable. They included core materials which had been historically known to be useful in batteries (and hence shouldn't qualify for protection), but then also every possible element-wise substitution of the same structure - many of the resulting materials would not even have been stable, never mind viable as a battery component. There were also instances of multiple patents covering the same material, suggesting that any prior-art searches were not being done rigorously.

Re: Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are as many revolutionary discoveries with and without patents I explicitly don't: I mentioned the patent stops others from innovating on top of the patent. The necessity of patents to be public is one I had not considered though, being a force against trade secrets is a good counterpoint. > Whether patents lead to more or less innovation is, as far as I know, contentious. Honestly, I really have trouble acce…

3D printing seems a good example: Extruded plastic took off before resin printers because the patents expired a few years earlier. As far as I can tell, we could have had the 3D printing revolution in the 90s or early 2000s, but instead we locked the technology away to only be used in a few esoteric commercial applications until the patents expired.

Similar story with e-ink; the license costs for the technology are the main blocker to wider adoption.

Re: Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time

#59
post #57

Doesn't it just stand to reason that there's less to discover, that what there is mostly isn't the low-hanging fruit (and unlike actual fruit, it's not regrowing), over time?

That's what I was thinking, too. Perhaps we already know majority of what there is to know, when it comes to fundamental concepts? Probably plenty of work left in improving our tools and engineering solutions, like machine learning-based software, as well as in understanding the intricates of biology. Maybe mathematics, too. Maybe improvements in these will cause another golden age of discovery. Like, understanding biology enough to gain significantly extended lifespan, which means much more expertise can be built by one individual.
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