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How to avoid another world war

spectator.co.uk

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Re: How to avoid another world war

#51

Post by psychphysic »

jamincan wrote: post #48
psychphysic wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting NATO has not had any influence on this war? The US just agreed a further 2bn in military aid including a patriot system. Ukraine only fighting chance has been due to NATOs support. Eastern Europe has always been a buffer between NATO and Russia in a landwar it's obviously preferable for Russia to lose in Ukraine than in a NATO territory from NATOs perspective. What did you think was going on here i…

I think I clearly stated that the US and NATO has had influence, sufficient to tilt the war in either direction, but I also think it's unrealistic to believe that influence can be leveraged to end the war let alone set the terms for peace. The world in the 21st century is not one in which individual sovereign countries are beholden to the dictates of great powers and where therefore a simplified framework for underst…

I don't believe at all that Ukraine fought off the initial invasion alone.

In fact I think that's been categorically disproven with green berets admitting to providing on ground training extensively before the invasion and admissions of extensive intelligence support from those AWACS weren't circling the black sea for training purposes.

Even an admission that the base near Poland which was struck was the primary place western troops trained Ukrainian troops.

Likely a cohort of Ukrainian troops which were trained and equipt were already present in Ukraine likely at the instance of the US when intelligence predicted invasion within a year.

Why would Ukraine turn it down?

I'm sorry but the miracle of the Ukrainian farmers defense is a laughable fairy tale it was achieved through careful preparation and huge military losses. All driven by savvy NATO advisors.

Whether or not the Ukrainian government really believed Russia would invade is another question. Biden suggests not.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#52

Post by psychphysic »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #50
jamincan wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I clearly stated that the US and NATO has had influence, sufficient to tilt the war in either direction, but I also think it's unrealistic to believe that influence can be leveraged to end the war let alone set the terms for peace. The world in the 21st century is not one in which individual sovereign countries are beholden to the dictates of great powers and where therefore a simplified framework for underst…

>The world in the 21st century is not one in which individual sovereign countries are beholden to the dictates of great powers and where therefore a simplified framework for understanding global politics that only considers great powers is useful. What reason is there to think this is true? What I see is the appearance of a post-realpolitik world in the wake of an utterly dominant U.S. hegemony. Realpolitik is still…

There is none.

The invasion of ukraine snapped a lot of people who weren't paying attention awake. And they believe we're in a novel situation.

It's just another cold war style proxy war, this is Kissinger's wheelhouse.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#53

Post by sasattack »

trasz3 wrote: post #21
hackinthebochs wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what is called over-updating on a single event. Probably the key difference is that each soviet republic was already a discrete identity based on ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, and so the default was simply to revert to that identity. For a state with no clear discrete sub-identities, nor with enough economic or military autonomy to survive as an independent state, civil war becomes much more likely as…

Current Russia has plenty of sub-identities though. It’s the worlds last colonial empire, and the division lines are obvious to everyone there. The only thing keeping it all together is the army and police. (Cf https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1600551806429544452.html )

"Last colonial empire " Have you heard of the United States of America? Standing rock was like only a few years ago my guy

Re: How to avoid another world war

#54

Post by trasz3 »

yywwbbn wrote: post #24
trasz3 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current Russia has plenty of sub-identities though. It’s the worlds last colonial empire, and the division lines are obvious to everyone there. The only thing keeping it all together is the army and police. (Cf https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1600551806429544452.html )

Yes, but those parts that’s potentially might want to leave Russia are not geographically and economically significant compared to the rest of Russia.

Siberia is way more significant than western Russia. That’s one of the pieces we’re commonly missing: Moscow is a hollow parasite.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#55

Post by vlovich123 »

darthrupert wrote: post #39
vlovich123 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With Russia‘s nukes, it seems unlikely Ukraine will invade Russia. It’s possible they wouldn’t be so cautious of Russia if it had disarmed its nuclear capabilities. EDIT: fixed the multiple wording mistakes that made the statement nonsense from start to finish.

By Russia's fucked up interpretation of reality, Ukraine has already invaded Russia and is currently occupying two of its cities. Or did you mean they would invade real Russian territory, like Moscow? Why would they do that?

Russia territory from before all the conflict

> why would they do that

Russia has a regime that’s clearly hostile to Ukraine. Additionally, they have a history of trying to assisted people in their way politically. So, if you’re successfully pushing back the army, you have the momentum to try to overthrow this regime and ensure some long term security on your border. Whether or not that would work or be wise would be separate calculus but nuclear weapons in the hands of an unstable leader adds at least a little bit uncertainty that would make you pause in addition to everything else.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#56

Post by sfifs »

psychphysic wrote: post #30
sfifs wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

actual sustainable peace requires denuclearization (and possible fragmentation) of the Russian federation because a precedent has to be set for the international order that threat of weapons of mass destruction cannot be used for annexation. Right now, by arming Ukraine, NATO is stripping Russia of conventional forces that keep the nucleae weapons safe and the federation together. Hopefully the emdgame will be achiev…

This is the problem I'm afraid. Perhaps it's well meaning but by asking for the end of Russia you're just another war hawk voice asking for world war.

Not really. We tend to anthropomorphize countries in general conversations but this is really about lessons that political leadership needs to be taught.

There are several current lessons leaders world over have already learned from this conflict - eg. (1) never give up nuclear weapons as the security guarantees won't be honoured (2) the destructive power and accuracy of networked modern light weapons is so great that it is impossible to hold territory conventionally if the other side has access to these

Re: How to avoid another world war

#57

Post by psychphysic »

darthrupert wrote: post #43
psychphysic wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing Kissinger's point (or perhaps I'm artificially seeing my point in Kissinger's argument). Let's continue to refuse to deny Russia at various world forums. And Russia just burns it's fossil fuels intensely. The damage from climate change is catestrophic and WE LOSE. Let's say we continue to shun Russia economically bringing it to it's knees. How does it make money if no one will buy it's goods on the ope…

Do we really need to think of Russia as being a country of utter regressed animals who are capable of nothing but the worst ideas? Are they really comic book evil?

No not at all. Russians are quite lovely.

Americans aren't monsters despite their monstrous acts in Korea and Vietnam.

Super powers gonna super power and mostly that means stomp all over unfortunate people.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#58

Post by archagon »

psychphysic wrote: post #14
mmmwww wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree with you, I think this information will already be understood in coming negotiations. Although the author’s legitimacy is questionable, I read the solution he proposes as sensible: End of war. Removal of the army from Ukraine except for Crimea, at first and international oversight of referenda for the regions. Potential threat of cost of reparations and what it would mean for Russia to lose is probably…

What Kissinger is correct about most is that none of this matters as much as ending this war. With hindsight ww2 could have been avoided if it wasn't for the prolonged punishment for ww1. Russia has too many ways to ruin the world for it to be worth not trying out best to bring them into the fold tightly and fast. Sadly this will upset Ukrainians but that's unfortunately not as important as avoiding another world war…

Do you think Ukraine would accept this abdication? If the world gives up on Ukraine, I would not be surprised if they just said fuck it and sent a bunch of missiles into Moscow.

In terms of world peace, I fear the best we can hope for is a prolonged stalemate, or something unexpectedly changing in Russian politics. In the past, I might have hoped that Ukraine would trade invaded land for NATO membership, but it seems this is untenable for both Russia and Europe (e.g. Hungary).

Also, leaving a country to die would surely cause mass political unrest across Europe.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#59

Post by archagon »

psychphysic wrote: post #36
jamincan wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. Kissinger specifically frames this as a war between two great powers over a conventionally armed nation. In this framing, western nations have the power to end this war and set the terms for peace. But I don't believe this is true, and I feel this is a relic of a different era. Western nations can influence the war - sending Ukraine more arms, or cutting off supply would certainly influence its chances. B…

You're missing Kissinger's point (or perhaps I'm artificially seeing my point in Kissinger's argument). Let's continue to refuse to deny Russia at various world forums. And Russia just burns it's fossil fuels intensely. The damage from climate change is catestrophic and WE LOSE. Let's say we continue to shun Russia economically bringing it to it's knees. How does it make money if no one will buy it's goods on the ope…

I don’t see any options where WE WIN, either. Ukraine is not going to stop fighting, as is their right. Sometimes there are no good options.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#60

Post by AnimalMuppet »

psychphysic wrote: post #45
jamincan wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm rejecting Kissinger's entire framework. This isn't a war between NATO (or the US) and Russia, so as much as we might want to end the war, we can't. The entire premise of his article presumes that the west can determine the outcome at all apart from tilting the scales one way or another.

Are you suggesting NATO has not had any influence on this war? The US just agreed a further 2bn in military aid including a patriot system. Ukraine only fighting chance has been due to NATOs support. Eastern Europe has always been a buffer between NATO and Russia in a landwar it's obviously preferable for Russia to lose in Ukraine than in a NATO territory from NATOs perspective. What did you think was going on here i…

It's not a war between NATO and Russia. It's a proxy war (on NATO's part). The difference matters.

If this were a war between NATO and Russia, all those bases that Russian missiles are coming from would be gone. So would Russia's air force. And then the ground-attack planes would start in on all the Russian troops in Ukraine. And they'd feel free to go after every mass of troops that Russia brought anywhere near the border.

None of that is happening. That's how you know it's not a war between NATO and Russia.

To your larger point: You think Russia has the power to destroy the world, so we should let them have their way with Ukraine. You're like a business owner who doesn't interfere when the street gang rapes people outside, because they might burn your business if you did. Can't you see how morally bankrupt that is?

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