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‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

washingtonpost.com

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Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#51

Post by yunohn »

justanorherhack wrote: post #27
honestduane wrote: post #24

The sad fact is that we have enough software developers in America to fully meet all of every American companies technical needs; The problem is that these companies don't want to meet the market demands of that labor pool by paying what that market is asking to keep that sustainable, so they want to import people who they can abuse to temporarily lower labor prices for them. And the number of Americans I know who wo…

This is the root issue and it's systemic wage suppression. It's also surreal when entire management structures are h1b1 visa workers and speaks to deeper cultural issues that nobody wants to talk about.

> speaks to deeper cultural issues that nobody wants to talk about

Could you explain further?

Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#52

Post by tasty_freeze »

odysseus wrote: post #46
bibanez wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't see any systems in place for raising 60 million unwanted children. Would you be able to raise any yourself? There's a gap between understanding the numbers and practice.

That's 60 million children missing over almost 50 years, or ~830K/year. But not all of these were "unwanted". Many women are pressured into abortion by abusive, manipulative, cowardly, and responsibility-shirking men. As for the truly unwanted ones, ~33 million couples in the U.S. are infertile. There are untold thousands of families waiting to adopt. A few of them are listed at https://www.americanadoptions.com/fami…

Most of the sites I found were not primary sources and many were clearly cut & paste jobs to fill some content quota or something. All the same, from what I gathered, it sounds like about 100,000 children are adopted every year, and it is about half of those were due to step-parents adopting the children of their partner.

So say about 50,000 adoptions that are foster children or given up at birth. Who is going to adopt the extra 830,000 per year? Maybe those 33 million infertile couples? There are 400,000 kids in foster care right now and apparently those 33M are not jumping at the opportunity to adopt them.

Yes, some famous people were adopted. So were some terrible people. I don't see either one being an argument for or against.

Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#53

Post by kmonsen »

odysseus wrote: post #46
bibanez wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't see any systems in place for raising 60 million unwanted children. Would you be able to raise any yourself? There's a gap between understanding the numbers and practice.

That's 60 million children missing over almost 50 years, or ~830K/year. But not all of these were "unwanted". Many women are pressured into abortion by abusive, manipulative, cowardly, and responsibility-shirking men. As for the truly unwanted ones, ~33 million couples in the U.S. are infertile. There are untold thousands of families waiting to adopt. A few of them are listed at https://www.americanadoptions.com/fami…

And women that want to can still go trough with pregnancy and adopt the child out if they want to. It is their right to choose if they want to dedicate 9 months of their lives to giving birth, including sacrificing their body and possibly going through the most painful and dangerous part of the lives. Made even more difficult now as many hospitals in red states are holding back needed medical care just so they don't get accused of supporting abortions.

It is certainly not our right to demand this so we can get cheap labor.

Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#54

Post by Blackthorn »

mixmastamyk wrote: post #28

Another "shortage of workers" article aimed at the plutocracy that should be retitled "shortage of pay" to attract them. "We've tried everything, including raising pay $3 an hour!" => after a wave of significant inflation. Really? I understand many service workers are undocumented, but where are the I-9 forms going? Every job I've had made me fill one out, by law. Here we have a number of organizations outing themsel…

> I understand many service workers are undocumented, but where are the I-9 forms going? Every job I've had made me fill one out, by law.

You can just be dishonest on an I9 form. It's a piece of paper, not a mindreading lie detector.

Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#55

Post by strken »

podric wrote: post #31
honestduane wrote: post #24

The sad fact is that we have enough software developers in America to fully meet all of every American companies technical needs; The problem is that these companies don't want to meet the market demands of that labor pool by paying what that market is asking to keep that sustainable, so they want to import people who they can abuse to temporarily lower labor prices for them. And the number of Americans I know who wo…

The idea that H-1B workers suppress US wages is a harmful myth that gets thrown around HN a lot. The study that supports the claim that the H-1B program suppresses US tech wages is about 20 years old, and no longer reflects the current reality. In fact, a 2017 Glassdoor study found that the wages of H-1B workers were 2.8% higher than their American counterparts: https://www.glassdoor.com/research/h1b-workers/ The US…

Getting paid more than domestic workers doesn't mean you don't lower the wages of the sector overall, it could just mean you're competing with the top end of the market.

I was over there working on an E-3 a few years back, and I'm pretty sure I got hired because it was easier (e.g. cheaper) to set up a hiring funnel in another country than within the US. That doesn't automatically mean lower wage growth, but it could.

I tentatively think that skilled migrant workers lower wages within a single sector but have a neutral or positive effect on wages overall, and the US tech labour market is so hot that I don't feel bad for making its wages drop, stagnate, or increase slightly slower than they might otherwise, assuming the overall impact on every other sector is positive.

Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#56

Post by kmonsen »

nonameiguess wrote: post #17
odysseus wrote: post #13

Unpopular opinion, but I'd argue the last ~50 years of legalized abortion, with over 60 million lives lost, also accounts for a large percentage of the missing workforce. (Even more so when you consider the loss of their children and their children's children.) > 18% of the workforce has been wiped out by abortion, and this number will climb to 23% by 2035.^1 > While labor force participation may rise in the short ru…

Presumably, hormonal birth control, condoms, and allowing women to get educations and have careers has slowed population growth far more than legalizing abortion. That and just becoming a rich country. If we could have stayed more like Niger, we might have 2 billion people by now and wouldn't need immigration at all. I guess that's what sucks about public policy. You have to pursue many goals and some of them may con…

Personal liberty and societies needs often conflict. I am happy we mostly choose to favor liberty and I am convinced in the long run this make a better and more productive society. Even if it isn't that is clearly the society I want to live in.

Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#57

Post by Blackthorn »

ferrumfist wrote: post #25
aperson_hello wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're hard pressed to find a democrat who is actually earnestly pushing for immigration reform either. I'd claim the republicans largely swapped and the democrats are only for it just enough to foil the republicans!

> democrats are only for it just enough to foil the republicans Absolutely not. Modern Democrats are neoliberals to the extreme. Neoliberals are very pro-immigration.

> Neoliberals are very pro-immigration.

Is this really the case? My experience with neoliberalism is they are certainly pro-globalism, but would be quite happy physically keeping everyone where they currently are (all the better to exploit the wage gaps).

Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#58

Post by ralph84 »

throwaway2729 wrote: post #36
honestduane wrote: post #24

The sad fact is that we have enough software developers in America to fully meet all of every American companies technical needs; The problem is that these companies don't want to meet the market demands of that labor pool by paying what that market is asking to keep that sustainable, so they want to import people who they can abuse to temporarily lower labor prices for them. And the number of Americans I know who wo…

You are correct except that it's L1 visa driving wages down. H1Bs are typically employed at FAANG and are paid top of the market. Instead of a lottery system, they should use it for top of the market jobs or proven specialization like published papers in that field or certifications.

There are way way more H1Bs working for bodyshops that lease them to non-FAANG Fortune 500 companies than work for FAANG.

https://h1bdata.info/topcompanies.php

8 of the top 10 H1B filers are bodyshops. And of course the average salary for the 8 bodyshops is way below the 2 non-bodyshops.

Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#59

Post by darth_avocado »

honestduane wrote: post #24

The sad fact is that we have enough software developers in America to fully meet all of every American companies technical needs; The problem is that these companies don't want to meet the market demands of that labor pool by paying what that market is asking to keep that sustainable, so they want to import people who they can abuse to temporarily lower labor prices for them. And the number of Americans I know who wo…

H1B is an easy scapegoat. You see people of certain nationalities on visa and think ohh the companies are bringing in cheap labor. The reality is that most of them would be citizens if the immigration laws were created equal. You wouldn’t see that many people on visa if they didn’t have to stay on it for decades.

People come from Europe all the time and become citizens, and you don’t say “ohh look at all these foreigners on visa taking away all the jobs and suppressing the wages” because they transition to citizenship and you don’t see them on visas for long.

Create a fair immigration system and you won’t see H1Bs around for long.

Re: ‘Two years of lost immigration’ is responsible for half of missing workforce

#60

Post by DrFunke »

podric wrote: post #31
honestduane wrote: post #24

The sad fact is that we have enough software developers in America to fully meet all of every American companies technical needs; The problem is that these companies don't want to meet the market demands of that labor pool by paying what that market is asking to keep that sustainable, so they want to import people who they can abuse to temporarily lower labor prices for them. And the number of Americans I know who wo…

The idea that H-1B workers suppress US wages is a harmful myth that gets thrown around HN a lot. The study that supports the claim that the H-1B program suppresses US tech wages is about 20 years old, and no longer reflects the current reality. In fact, a 2017 Glassdoor study found that the wages of H-1B workers were 2.8% higher than their American counterparts: https://www.glassdoor.com/research/h1b-workers/ The US…

What happens to demand when supply is increased?
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