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What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

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Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dividends create an immediately taxable event, the value gained in a stock buyback is only taxed when the stock is sold. It’s one contributor to the low amount of taxes paid by the so-called 1%.

Of course unrealized gains won't be taxable, but they can't be spent either. For me, it makes a lot more sense to tax realized profit, or better yet consumption, than wealth itself. I don't think it is desirable to force realization just to increase tax revenue.

> Of course unrealized gains won't be taxable, but they can't be spent either.

They can be spent if you have a low interest LOC at a bank backed by your assets like stocks.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#52
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course unrealized gains won't be taxable, but they can't be spent either. For me, it makes a lot more sense to tax realized profit, or better yet consumption, than wealth itself. I don't think it is desirable to force realization just to increase tax revenue.

My understanding is that you can play tricks with stocks so that you don't really need to realize the gains to benefit from them. They can be used as collateral for loans, directly donated to charities (lowers down your tax bill w/o forcing you to realize the gain), there's also the step-up basis loophole (or was it already closed?). I may be missing some details (and other creative ways to do "tax optimization") tho…

I had not heard about the donating to charity. Very interesting and tax efficient, but worth noting that you cant make money with it (you are still donating far more than you are saving in taxes).

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#53
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Complete nonsense. The Fed isn't supposed to address any "issues", but simply be neutral. Instead they've spent a century saving entities that socialized private losses.

They're meant to use monetary policy to maintain price stability and keep the unemployment rate low. Lots of issues come up where monetary policy would need to react. There are many places where fiscal policy might be better (it can be more finely targeted) and we generally don't see it materialize. So we're left with central bank technocrats using monetary policy.

The alternative to monetary policy isn’t necessarily fiscal policy. The current situation seems to be a combination of fiscal (demand side) problems [0] and supply problems. Congress can, slowly, address supply problems. The Fed can only usefully affect the demand side.

As examples that have come up, various shipping laws make shipping expensive. Energy should be cheap to improve economic output, but energy prices are quite high, especially in places like CA. Medical services, drugs, and drug development are wildly expensive and inefficient, and government policies help keep them that way. Various environmental laws, while well intentioned, raise costs of all kinds of things while providing little or even negative environmental benefit [1].

[0] Hello, Covid stimulus policies.

[1] As an example in California, water is quite useful, and desalinating water is not fundamentally particularly expensive. But so many environmental groups have veto power over desalination that the cost of large scale desalination might as well be infinite. Never mind that CA has plenty of coastline, plenty of solar resources near the coast, and plenty of valuable goods that could be produced if cheap solar power and reasonably priced water were actually available. And never mind that actual peoples’ actual living expenses (hello, inflation!) would be reduced if their utility bills, their restaurants’ utility bills, etc weren’t so high.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#54

My friend that has been a general contractor for around ten years acts like it's not even worth doing his job anymore now that interest rates are going up.

Contractor we use says they’ve got a 1-2 year lead time and very busy schedules. Who knows, maybe that’ll drop off in a few years

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course unrealized gains won't be taxable, but they can't be spent either. For me, it makes a lot more sense to tax realized profit, or better yet consumption, than wealth itself. I don't think it is desirable to force realization just to increase tax revenue.

> For me, it makes a lot more sense to tax realized profit, or better yet consumption, than wealth itself. Why not tax all of that simultaneously? That's what the Dutch do. > I don't think it is desirable to force realization just to increase tax revenue. And yet various governments are doing or are planning exactly that.

I searched and couldnt find anything about a Dutch wealth tax, just answers saying they dont have one.

Do you have a source?

I wasn't aware of any western countries which have wealth taxes, but I was surprised to find that Norway, Spain, and Switzerland do have some.

https://taxfoundation.org/net-wealth-tax-europe-2022/#:~:tex....

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#56
post #11

“All of this has led to weird idiosyncrasies, euphoria, and contradictions. Stocks ballooned, tripling in value since 2009” This is like 9% compounded for 13 years, which is in line with historic averages.

Hm, but we've had zero interest rates that entire time so shouldn't we have expected even higher returns? E.g. what would the 90s have looked like with zero rates?

And by that thinking, if we could only manage historical averages during pronounced low interest rates, what does it say about the prospect of returns for the next few years?

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#57

> "What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?" Worldviews typically include who we are, why we're here, what purpose (if any) we have in life, etc. It seems strange to me that someone's worldview could be thoroughly based on interest rates.

You (thankfully) mustn't know many crypto/optionbros.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#58

My friend that has been a general contractor for around ten years acts like it's not even worth doing his job anymore now that interest rates are going up.

Interesting. I just asked the builder that built my house* and he said his business hasn't slowed down at all. His primary location since I'm sure that matters a lot: suburbs north of Dallas. * We got the land right before the boom in prices. Paid super inflated prices for materials. Finalized a mortgage before the recent rate increases. I guess overall we came out ahead?

> Finalized a mortgage before the recent rate increases.

What a privilege it is to live in a country where home loan interest rates are fixed.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#59
post #25
post #13

People who complain about extreme fed policy should look to congress. The inability of congress to address core economic and financial issues forces the feds hand.

Complete nonsense. The Fed isn't supposed to address any "issues", but simply be neutral. Instead they've spent a century saving entities that socialized private losses.

What do you mean by “neutral”?

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course unrealized gains won't be taxable, but they can't be spent either. For me, it makes a lot more sense to tax realized profit, or better yet consumption, than wealth itself. I don't think it is desirable to force realization just to increase tax revenue.

> Of course unrealized gains won't be taxable, but they can't be spent either. They can be spent if you have a low interest LOC at a bank backed by your assets like stocks.

Don't get me wrong, unrealized gains are a useful and great thing to have. I would rather have them over nothing any day. However, you can't get that off your books without realizing gain at some point. It pushes tax burden into the future, but doesn't eliminate it
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