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Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

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Re: Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

#51
post #10

A very important nuance for everyone following this. SBF keeps saying there was a liquidity crisis at FTX, which is 100% not true. A liquidity crisis implies that he took deposits, flipped them into good, but illiquid investments, and ran into trouble because people asked for more cash than FTX had on hand. FTX actually had a solvency crisis, where he took deposits, put them in completely inappropriate investments (m…

Long Term Capital Management [1] is a good example of a company with “good, but illiquid investments” that failed because they made trades that went the wrong way temporarily, ran out of margin, and had to be rescued with a bailout before the trades recovered. Market prices stabilized after the bailout and the rescuers eventually exited the trades with a small profit.

I agree with your assessment that Alameda / FTX put customer deposits into “completely inappropriate investments” but there is a bit of a judgment call involved. Crypto fanatics could argue that the market will bounce back and those investments will be successful in the end.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

Re: Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

#52
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. His resume shows he's smart enough to understand how market-making and trading works, he just bought into his own mythos and thought he could out-trade the world. If he was actually as skilled as he thought, his strategy could have made him unimaginably wealthy, but he wasn't. I'd compare it to a magician throwing swords at an assistant on stage. You better be sure that you know what you're doing before you do it…

So that bonkers "magic box" interview he gave - was he deliberately planning a naivety defense while executing theft of the deposits?

no he was bragging - a lot of the "trading" alameda did was participating and orchestrating "boxes" like what he so smugly described in the interview, which was horrifying to listen to.

Re: Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

#53
post #25
post #10

A very important nuance for everyone following this. SBF keeps saying there was a liquidity crisis at FTX, which is 100% not true. A liquidity crisis implies that he took deposits, flipped them into good, but illiquid investments, and ran into trouble because people asked for more cash than FTX had on hand. FTX actually had a solvency crisis, where he took deposits, put them in completely inappropriate investments (m…

> took deposits, put them in completely inappropriate investments (many of which are now worthless, all of which were speculative nonsense) I think it's naive to think this is the case. It's reasonable to assume he knows those tokens couldn't have been worth what he claims they're worth, before or after the FTX collapse. The tokens didn't suddenly drop in value. He has experience as a market maker and remaining delta…

maybe its hard to be delta neutral in crypto where all the coins are like 95% correlated.

Re: Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

#54
post #5

SBF is literally adding one year more year to his sentence in every interview he gives. He should just shut up. (Not legal advice)

Naw, he paid a lot of politicians, he fine.

> he fine.

given how crypto attracts illegal activity i wonder if he cheated people who prefer to not get their justice through the legal system...

Re: Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

#55
post #3

The idea that a "bank run" caused this is just silly. FTX is not a bank.

> The idea that a "bank run" caused this is just silly. FTX is not a bank. Are you familiar with the adage: The easiest way to rob a bank is to own one? Here is the thing, FTX may not ave been a registered bank, but it definitely functioned as a fractional reserve bank: and in the end that is what matters most! SBF is so screwed, and a part of me makes me think he wanted to implode all along: despite being born on 3r…

FTX was not a bank it was a hole for money to go into.

Re: Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

#56
post #10

A very important nuance for everyone following this. SBF keeps saying there was a liquidity crisis at FTX, which is 100% not true. A liquidity crisis implies that he took deposits, flipped them into good, but illiquid investments, and ran into trouble because people asked for more cash than FTX had on hand. FTX actually had a solvency crisis, where he took deposits, put them in completely inappropriate investments (m…

> FTX actually had a solvency crisis, where he took deposits, put them in completely inappropriate investments (many of which are now worthless, all of which were speculative nonsense) and is now revealed to have done that. Who was on the other side of these losing trades? People need to follow the money trail. Where did the money go? There are people who called the Alameda / FTX scam from day one, before FTX was eve…

[deleted]

Re: Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

#58
post #48
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> took deposits, put them in completely inappropriate investments (many of which are now worthless, all of which were speculative nonsense) I think it's naive to think this is the case. It's reasonable to assume he knows those tokens couldn't have been worth what he claims they're worth, before or after the FTX collapse. The tokens didn't suddenly drop in value. He has experience as a market maker and remaining delta…

> The tokens didn't suddenly drop in value. May I point you to a chart showing the price of Solana (SBF's preferred token)? Down 80% in four months is a pretty sudden drop in value. To be clear, I think the fraud started then , but that was after the damage had been done. >He has experience as a market maker and remaining delta-neutral Yeah, but market makers in unexpectedly lopsided markets lose all the time. It's t…

These were the top tokens they held in order of how they marked them on their balance sheet:

FTT $5.9B

SRM $5.4B

SOL $2.2B

MAPS $865M

Found here:

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/596a07c029687f...

>May I point you to a chart showing the price of Solana (SBF's preferred token)? Down 80% in four months is a pretty sudden drop in value.

FTT, SRM, and MAPS are the garbage tokens they claimed were worth more than they actually were. They each had major drawdowns more than 4 months ago. SOL even had a 60% drawdown by March. None of this was sudden. My point is they knew they were in trouble long before any of the solvency/liquidity issues.

It's thought that their trouble started in May during the Luna/Terra collapse. Alameda's loans were pulled when 3AC blew up. That's when they minted more FTT. SRM also had similar supply increases out of nowhere. They weren't investments as you said. They were tokens they could mint at any time to collateralize new loans.

Maybe they thought the same could be done with SOL? It is known to be highly centralized. There are also known issues with the Solana ecosystem where TVL for layer 2 tokens were double counted, making it seem more valuable.

Re: Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

#59
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That video was remarkable. Apparently the guy couldn't code but worked as a trader at JS for three years. In my own head, that almost reflected worse on JS than SBF. I think everyone assumed Alameda were doing something clever. In reality, they were just idiots stealing from and front-running their customers. Lol. These moments when you see the man behind the curtain, it is just ludicrous and shakes your faith in the…

Coffeezilla remarked that he's deflecting - rather than saying "there was no backdoor" he seized on a slightly clumsily worded question and replied with " I didn't implement a backdoor" then padded it out with the fluff about how he isn't a coder. The guy is flailing around saying whatever he can to try to rescue himself (and not succeeding). He also said they got $4bn minutes after declaring bankruptcy ... but that…

Which isn't the same thing as saying he can't code. Everyone knows he is deflecting, the truth of what occurred is already largely public.

Re: Phone interview with Sam Bankman-Fried [audio]

#60
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That video was remarkable. Apparently the guy couldn't code but worked as a trader at JS for three years. In my own head, that almost reflected worse on JS than SBF. I think everyone assumed Alameda were doing something clever. In reality, they were just idiots stealing from and front-running their customers. Lol. These moments when you see the man behind the curtain, it is just ludicrous and shakes your faith in the…

> couldn't code but worked as a trader at JS for three years That doesn't seem odd. They need people good at math and/or creative problem solvers. The platform they execute on doesn't need to be rebuilt for each new strategy. > I think everyone assumed Alameda were doing something clever. Everyone knew the strategy they ran was to list a perpeptual futures contract for a Solana shitcoin on FTX, and short it into the…

It does seem odd. Almost everyone who they hire (in these roles) can code. If you are just hiring traders, why not hire guys who can...you know...trade? Rather than some random person from MIT. The precise competitive advantage of JS is their tech.

I will say this another way...back in the early 2000s, investment banks used to hire people to do index arbs, the strat was literally press sell/buy button on Excel that will execute basket cash trades against an index, call our broker up on the floor and sell/buy futures...that was it. The strong implication is that JS is hiring people to do that kind of thing...investment banks stopped hiring these guys by the mid-2000s. The idea of the "maverick trader" who is just very creative doesn't really exist...almost all of those people who do that at hedge funds spent decades at investment banks where they had access to flow...and most of those people never graduated to hedge funds in the 2000s and just became execution traders. Again, JS is hiring these people out of college...that is weird. That is exceptionally weird. No hedge fund does this. No investment bank does this. No-one does this. A few trading houses do this (not many, Optiver is the only one left afaik...there used to be more, most went bust) but it is counter to the image that JS presents. As someone who knows a little about trading, this struck me immediately as extremely odd. Looking at their job listings...yes, it is odd (they have a job listing for traders: it says you should know how to program in at least one language).

Okay, the guy from Wintermute (who presumably knows something about trading) said he assumed they were doing something clever and was shocked when they failed. Also, they did a YouTube video which explained what some of the stuff they were doing was, that wasn't exactly surprising but I think people assumed (reasonably) they had more edge than they did (the reason they didn't was because they were cheating, nothing else).

Right, I think the current view is: they probably went bust in June/July (or whenever the earlier crash was), and some of the numbers they told other people about how much they made may have been fictional (I have read that they were losing money before they went bust but other people have said, again the Wintermute CEO, that they assumed FTX were making money because of what they were seeing in markets...again though, they were doing things that were obviously illegal so they were clearly making money from other things after Japan).

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