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UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#51

Post by TapWaterBandit »

oliwarner wrote: post #50
TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

The problem with kicking out migrant workers (which is effectively what's happened, and what "taking back control" was sold as ) is we have major industries unable to hire. Construction is steeply overpaying low-skilled jobs when it can find people. Care is unable to hire, quickly extinguishing hospitals' ability to discharge and admit. Agriculture has seen a massive seasonal pinch; crops have spoiled because the tra…

I don't disagree with any of this except I don't think Brexit has much to do with it. Countries all over the world (including in Europe) are facing the exact same issue.

Many workers want to come to the UK even now, and yes, even many Europeans.

I don't think in the longrun that British immigrant numbers will go down but now the control is better and the perception of control is higher as well. There is a lot of value to that as politically illegal immigration (or perceived excessive immigration) has a way of sucking all the oxygen away from other issues.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#52

Post by srb24 »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

1. Last time I looked no African country was part of the EU, so not sure how stricter controls for EU nationals works in your plan 2. The Uk wasn't part of the EuroZone so not really on the hook for Greece etc. 3. "a few hits to the City and London area aren't necessarily a bad thing" why wold you think losing one of the most Profitable parts of THE UK a good thing, it won't move to other parts of the UK, it will go to Paris, Frankfurt etc. 4. The average cost for ANY company of ANY size to now gain a sponsor license to employ non UK staff now starts at about £20,000, there are now not enough people to do many jobs especially in cities, labour costs (and now inflation) have risen out of control in many sectors causing closures and many firms are just outsourcing any non in-person to other countries. Yes, it would be great to give jobs to "locals" but not Everyone can do Every job!

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#53

Post by TapWaterBandit »

Teever wrote: post #39
TapWaterBandit wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In practice it doesn’t look this will even be an issue, since Brexit is already producing such bad results and losing popular support as demographic changes wipe out its base of support. We shall see. Remember that when rejoining the EU are going to try and get the best deal possible for themselves. I think you'll find that public sentiment can turn very quickly under such circumstances. You are also assuming no pr…

The underlying assumption in this entire comment is that the EU will want the UK back. Does the EU want the UK back?

I would say the underlying assumption is that the EU will want a free trade agreement (or some variation of one) with the UK for their own benefit. And considering the mutual advantages here I think this is a fair assumption to make.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#54

Post by TapWaterBandit »

8note wrote: post #37
TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

On the other hand, over the long run, Britain will lose out by not having the population growth from Africa. Capitalist economies demand that growth to do well. ... And the UK won't decouple itself from Greek debt until the UK decides it shouldn't have imposed the arbitrary debts in the first place

UK will still have immigration from Africa. But at a level that satisfies both GDP growth concerns as well as culture stability concerns.

Not being in the EU doesn't somehow make the UK incapable of accepting immigrants... I swear people are so upset with Brexit they have stopped using their brains in assessing the UKs options.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#55

Post by inglor_cz »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

Neither Europe nor the UK are willing to alter their asylum laws enough to disrupt the trade of the people smugglers. The control of borders is illusory if human waves can get onto your shore in boats and the courts strike down most countermeasures, so whoever comes, stays.

Therefore the population boom in Africa is likely to have a massive effect on European demography anyway, unless the Northern African countries, which are culturally different from the rest of Africa and which aren't particularly happy about being used as transit countries for mass migration either, build some kind of barriers across the Sahara.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#56

Post by TapWaterBandit »

8note wrote: post #36
TapWaterBandit wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think I don't understand compound growth? I do. I also understand that certain policies can lead to changes that will disturb QOL in a country outside of raw GDP (go ask Swedes how they feel about immigrant behaviour in their country in recent years). Is Swedish GDP up? Absolutely. Is it worth the price of open hang warfare and frequent shootings that have sky-rocketed since 2015? Depends how you look…

> The last thing the UK should do is try and rejoin now at a point of weakness especially when things aren't exactly looking wonderful in much of the EU either. Why though? To save face? What if both the EU and UK would still do better together than apart? At the same time, why would Scotland want to be tied to England who isn't doing so hot?

Scotland is far far worse off without the rest of the UK than the UK without Europe. And Scotland is doing much worse on almost all economic and social measures than England whereas that isn't the case at all when comparing the UK to the rest of the EU.

On top of that one data point is 19% of Scottish exports went to the EU. 60% go to the rest of the UK. Scotland has no ties with any foreign countries (they all run through Westminster), a fraction of the population that would struggle to achieve economies of scale, etc. On top of that there isn't even any guarantee that Scotland would get into the EU (I imagine Spain would block it so as not to encourage Catalonia separatism - check the 2017 Catalan referendum for my point).

Even if you think the UK leaving the EU was the UK shooting itself in the foot, Scotland exiting the UK would be it shooting itself in the head.

-------------------

In terms of rejoining the EU it won't even be able to brought to ballot for at least a decade. All the remain campaign would need to do is start running ads about how EU law will supersede British Law and highlight that the deal the Brits are getting now isn't as good as they one they had (and imply this is being done for vengeful reasons) and watch support collapse. The UK should be aiming for a free trade and economic agreement, not EU membership. That ship has sailed.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#57

Post by TheLoafOfBread »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

> Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom.

Actually it is exactly the opposite. When you were in EU and migrant came in on a dingy or hidden in a truck, you could have return him back to France. After the Brexit there is no such agreement and France can just show you a middle finger.

See https://www.ft.com/content/d9eed579-a6ee-43b2-b2ce-3e8d83908...

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#58

Post by TapWaterBandit »

TheLoafOfBread wrote: post #57
TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

> Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. Actually it is exactly the opposite. When you were in EU and migrant came in on a dingy or hidden in a truck, you could have return him back to France. After the Brexit there is no such agreement and France can just show you a middle finger. See https:/…

Paywall. Can you post the text and date of the article?

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#59

Post by halpmeh »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #53
Teever wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The underlying assumption in this entire comment is that the EU will want the UK back. Does the EU want the UK back?

I would say the underlying assumption is that the EU will want a free trade agreement (or some variation of one) with the UK for their own benefit. And considering the mutual advantages here I think this is a fair assumption to make.

It’s also in the EU’s interest to make the UK a pariah. A lesson to others on the dangers of leaving the bloc. I don’t see the EU caring so much about restoring free trade with the UK. It would present an image of groveling and send the wrong message.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#60

Post by retrac »

Andaith wrote: post #7
bsder wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this instance, you can unspill a lot of the milk by unwinding Brexit. The UK won't get back the absolutely insane, sometimes one-sided benefits that they had before Brexit--those are gone permanently. However, they would get back the unified market and probably arrest the destruction of London as a financial center.

I'm ok with London as a financial center being destroyed if it means the rest of the UK gets more resources & investment, and thus wealth spreads more equally. It's always been wild to me the difference between London & the rest of the UK.

It's not that unusual a situation. Toronto (with about 30% of Ontario's population) produces some 60% of the province's GDP. Ontario without Toronto would be about as wealthy as Poland, per capita. Perhaps all we're noticing here is that there are tremendous gains in efficiency to packing people in densely in large cities.
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