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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

economist.com

51–60 of 734 posts

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#51

Highly recommend the economist’s podcast on Xi called ‘The Prince’ Xi became a Leninist and is trying to be the next Mao. He is a true believer that his glory and the glory of China can only happen by taking back Taiwan. TSMC is a huge reason for this conflict. The current US policy is trying to slow China’s technological might for that next war.

But China doesn't actually have a lot of technological prowess on their own. The USG might be trying to slow them down but they're not concerned about China militarily.

I worked for a defense contractor back in the early 2000s when the USG was selling a lot of arms and systems to Taiwan. I got to see the bullying in person via the ASOC (part of the C4ISR platform) system we were installing. China would routinely fly fighters over the straight to the boundary and fly the line and return to the mainland. I didn't understand the rationale at the time but the US was enabling Taiwan for their own interests in chips. China doesn't matter as much but Taiwan does. The US always had a large naval presence in Taiwan that I saw. China has a relatively weak naval force in comparison - but obviously enough forces to easily take over Taiwan if and when they really feel the need to. I think these programs just bought the US more time.

Ultimately though, China needs Taiwan for those chips. The problem being that if the major producers leave Taiwan then China is hopeless as they don't possess the capabilities or people to retool. They need the likes of Germany and others to even think about the ability to produce competitive processors to AMD / Intel. China can't build its own fab for these types of procs.

Finally, I didn't realize until more recently that China was, and still is, relatively incapable on their own. Some recent books put it into perspective for me on a global scale. But the fact that China just recently figured out how to manufacture a high precision pen is an interesting reference [0].

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18...

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#52
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you say that? Almost every paragraph contains numerous references to either industry reports, sales numbers and market shares, various company projections past and present, relevant global events, laws passed or government statements, market performance and whatnot. They aren't enumerated and listed at the end sure, but they're there.

Quoted post unavailable.

Having spoken to someone who simply felt a nationalistic fervor in their formative years, I can tell you some folks just do it for fun.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#53
So, can someone explain to me why I can't get ANY chips for anything at all? Everything is out of stock that I use in my designs (Audio processing equipment). microprocessors, microcontrollers, ADCs, DACs, audio codecs, memory. Even bread and butter diodes were hard to source a few months ago. You name it, Mouser/Farnell/Digikey/the manufacturer doesn't have it. And if they do, it's priced at 500% MSRP.

It may be "swinging the other way" but we're at the very depth of the curve right now, and lead times are frequently 12-18 months. I can't see any evidence that it's swinging back, personally, maybe someone else does (like the writer of this article).

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#54
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is fighting its own fight but it's far from alone.

Voters in a democracy tend to react better to dollars-spent than bodybags-returned. So support via the former will always be the more tenable position for a democracy.

The best way for the EU to 'fight' russia would be to not be dependent on it for energy.

Russia can also do what it likes because of the constant nuclear threat. Russia has nukes that work, whereas the likes of the UK has a single nuclear sub that occasionally gets stuck on a sand banks. The Russians probably know where it is at all times.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#56

Highly recommend the economist’s podcast on Xi called ‘The Prince’ Xi became a Leninist and is trying to be the next Mao. He is a true believer that his glory and the glory of China can only happen by taking back Taiwan. TSMC is a huge reason for this conflict. The current US policy is trying to slow China’s technological might for that next war.

But China doesn't actually have a lot of technological prowess on their own. The USG might be trying to slow them down but they're not concerned about China militarily. I worked for a defense contractor back in the early 2000s when the USG was selling a lot of arms and systems to Taiwan. I got to see the bullying in person via the ASOC (part of the C4ISR platform) system we were installing. China would routinely fly…

Chinese tech and power has come along way since your formative image of them took shape in the early 2000s

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#57

So, can someone explain to me why I can't get ANY chips for anything at all? Everything is out of stock that I use in my designs (Audio processing equipment). microprocessors, microcontrollers, ADCs, DACs, audio codecs, memory. Even bread and butter diodes were hard to source a few months ago. You name it, Mouser/Farnell/Digikey/the manufacturer doesn't have it. And if they do, it's priced at 500% MSRP. It may be "sw…

I mean it's literally in TFA:

"In late September Micron, an Idaho-based maker of memory chips, reported a 20% year-on-year fall in quarterly sales. A week later amd, a Californian chip designer, slashed its sales estimate for the third quarter by 16%. Within days Bloomberg reported that Intel plans to lay off thousands of staff, following a string of poor results"

But most of the article is about how they're building new fabs in America, right when sales to China are being restricted. So its about a future surge in supply and reduction in demand.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#58
post #47

Intel messed up big time and I hate to see the US govt dump more money on incompetence. They are failing their way to success.

I have some bitter taste about that myself. First they offshore[1] to anywhere, but US, but the moment US makes it geopolitically risky, US recompenses Intel by offering massive incentives to re-shore. It is maddening. The worst part is, making chips is actually hard so there is a good and valid reason to actually do it, but I just hate rewarding bad behavior ( from US taxpayer's perspective ).

[1]https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-apr-07-fi-intel...

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#59

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said"

I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#60

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said" I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

There is no spare capacity to build highest-end process fabs, and there is huge demand for capacity in 22/28nm too.
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