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Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

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Re: Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

#51
post #11

Bernanke, really? This has to be a joke.

What about his 1980s work on bank runs and the Great Depression do you find so objectionable?

First of all, it didn't help him with avoiding a bank run when he was actually put in charge of almost the whole thing a few decades later, which is a thing that happens to very few "Nobel"-like economists (Keynes and his involvement in Bretton-Woods comes to mind, and that's about it as far as I know).

Second, I've always found those Great Depression/New Deal studies a little questionable when it comes to the science of economics, like I've partially hinted in another comment. It looks like the conclusion almost always aligns with the political leanings of those carrying out the study.

Sure, maybe he deserves the Nobel for an interesting work of economic history (or whatever the official term is), but I have the impression that his papers on that period were used as "inputs" for his relatively recent economic decisions, so not as a history artefact.

Re: Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

#52
post #9

You can feel however you feel about Bernanke during his tenure as Fed Chair. He was certainly hard to like at times, perhaps sometimes too smug. But his work laying out the pernicious effects of deflationary feedback loops as as an academic is probably one of the most influential works of monetary economics out there. I suggest people actually reading his papers before making a knee jerk reaction.

For someone who completely missed the 2008 bubble he certainly was insightful on stuff that did not matter

Re: Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

#53

Please be precise, this prize has nothing to do with the original Nobel prices. It's the Sveriges Riksbank's (central bank of Sweden) Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel - as the headline of TFA also tells us.

Semantics… even the Associated Press calls it the Nobel Prize in Economics: > STOCKHOLM (AP) — This year’s Nobel Prize in economic sciences has been awarded to the former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, and two U.S.-based economists, Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig, “for research on banks and financial crises https://apnews.com/article/nobel-economy-bernanke-2bb3eaee67...

> Associated Press

Since when is the AP a reliable reference?

Re: Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

#54
post #12
post #9

You can feel however you feel about Bernanke during his tenure as Fed Chair. He was certainly hard to like at times, perhaps sometimes too smug. But his work laying out the pernicious effects of deflationary feedback loops as as an academic is probably one of the most influential works of monetary economics out there. I suggest people actually reading his papers before making a knee jerk reaction.

> pernicious effects of deflationary feedback loops Serious question: were those results really put to the test? Apart from looking back at the New Deal era and getting from there whatever it's politically convenient at any one point.

> Serious question: were those results really put to the test?

Bernanke was already considered one of the foremost experts on the Great Depression when he was appointed Fed chairman. From a 1993 paper he co-authored on central banks' reaction to the situation (when things were still on the gold standard):

> The initial contractions in the United States and France were largely self-inflicted wounds; no binding external constraint forced the United States to deflate in 1929, and it would certainly have been possible for the French government to grant the Bank of France the power to conduct expansionary open market operations. However, Temin (1989) argues that, once these destabilizing policy measures had been taken, little could be done to avert deflation and depression, given the commitment of central banks to maintenance of the gold standard. Once the deflationary process had begun, central banks engaged in competitive deflation and a scramble for gold, hoping by raising cover ratios to protect their currencies against speculative attack. Attempts by any individual central bank to reflate were met by immediate gold outflows, which forced the central bank to raise its discount rate and deflate once again. According to Temin, even the United States, with its large gold reserves, faced this constraint. Thus Temin disagrees with the suggestion of Friedman and Schwartz (1963) that the Federal Reserve's failure to protect the U.S. money supply was due to misunderstanding of the problem or a lack of leadership; instead, he claims, given the commitment to the gold standard (and, presumably, the absence of effective central bank cooperation), the Fed had little choice but to let the banks fail and the money supply fall.

> For our purposes here it does not matter much to what extent central bank choices could have been other than what they were. For the positive question of what caused the Depression, we need only note that a monetary contraction began in the United States and France, and was propagated throughout the world by the international monetary standard.

* http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11482

* https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11482/c11482.pdf

Flooding the market with liquidity when US inter-bank flows seized up, as well as opening international swap lines with ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, etc:

* https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/curre...

* https://www.bis.org/publ/work310.pdf

* https://www.reuters.com/article/financial-fed-swaps-idUSN295...

was a direct result of understanding what went wrong during the Great Depression (at least from a banking point of view), and what could be done to prevent that part of the problem.

In March 2020, when economies were being put on lock down, similar things were done:

* https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-sw...

* https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/207608/CEPS_FINAL%20o...

Re: Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

#55
post #15
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2022/pop... Bernanke’s research shows that bank crises can potentially have catastrophic consequences. This insight illustrates the importance of well-functioning bank regulation, and was also the reasoning behind crucial elements of economic policy during the financial crisis of 2008–2009. At this time, Bernanke was head of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve,…

The consequences of the FED money printing are just starting to show. The everything bubble this time might become much worse than the housing bubble of 2008.

> The consequences of the FED money printing are just starting to show.

So having an economy in with the unemployment rate being the lowest it's been in decades is a bad thing? Would you rather have low economic growth and millions of people out of work? Would that that make you happy?

I'd rather have an economy that's "too hot" with inflation that needs to be slowed down than having people not getting a pay cheque at all. Slowing down an economy that's doing "too well" is preferable IMHO to one that's causing suffering.

But that's just me.

Re: Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

#56
post #21

Maybe this will remind people what the Fed of former years was like. I suspect Powells tenure will eventually be looked upon with scorn. I deeply suspected the market was overvalued in 2018. They should have been raising interest rates well before the pandemic. Then they wouldn’t have had to do quite as many unprecedented things, most likely. You do not want a Fed simply trying to time the market cycle around electio…

> They should have been raising interest rates well before the pandemic.

They did?

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

Do people not remember that there were already predictions of an upcoming recession by H2 2019?

* https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2019/08/the-great-yie...

* https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/12/31/2019s-yie...

An October 2019 interview with Campbell Harvey, who originally noticed the rate inversion phenomena in a paper he published:

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sb1byR8Zx0

Re: Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

#57

Please be precise, this prize has nothing to do with the original Nobel prices. It's the Sveriges Riksbank's (central bank of Sweden) Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel - as the headline of TFA also tells us.

> Please be precise, this prize has nothing to do with the original Nobel prices.

* https://dilbert.com/strip/2015-04-02

Re: Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

#58
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The consequences of the FED money printing are just starting to show. The everything bubble this time might become much worse than the housing bubble of 2008.

What if the Fed didn’t respond the way it did? What would of happened? And what were the alternatives?

A small recession then instead of a big one now.

Re: Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig

#60
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The consequences of the FED money printing are just starting to show. The everything bubble this time might become much worse than the housing bubble of 2008.

> The consequences of the FED money printing are just starting to show. So having an economy in with the unemployment rate being the lowest it's been in decades is a bad thing? Would you rather have low economic growth and millions of people out of work? Would that that make you happy? I'd rather have an economy that's "too hot" with inflation that needs to be slowed down than having people not getting a pay cheque a…

The slowing down now will cause more suffering than a slow economy during covid would have been.

They are raising rates but inflation is not going down at all.

Until it does there is not just "low economic growth" but rather economic contraction and even more out of work than if they did just let economy take its natural course and correction during covid.

Will that make you happy?

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