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Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

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Re: Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

#51
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, so to properly isolate the effect of the colonoscopy on mortality, we need to do a randomized trial with just people like you -- people who would definitely get a colonoscopy if invited -- to see what the effect is. Because you're also more likely to act on early warning signs and get a cancer diagnosis in time to treat the cancer rather than die.

> Because you're also more likely to act on early warning signs and get a cancer diagnosis in time to treat the cancer rather than die. This seems to imply we should discount all treatments because people who choose to get treatment are more likely to get better, coincidentally by the same amount as the treatment's efficacy.

That's not what it means at all.

The question here is a question that the medical establishment is trying to answer: namely, "What can we, as the medical establishment do, to reduce deaths from colon cancer?" For a long time, the answer has been, "Invite people to take colonscopies". What the data here appears to show is that the action, "Invite people to take colonoscopies" doesn't actually reduce deaths from colon cancer. If the medical establishment wants to actually reduce deaths from colon cancer, they'll need to figure out something else.

I guess I do agree that the headline is likely to be counterproductive. What the data might show is that the most effective thing you as an individual can do is to be the kind of person who takes colonoscopies when invited. The unfortunate effect it might have is to make more people into the kind of people who don't take colonoscopies when invited.

Re: Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

#52
This is about colonoscopy screening. If you give a fecal sample and it comes up as suspicious, the next step will be a colonoscopy anyway.

A colonoscopy is quite unpleasant; you starve for a day, and take an enema. They may sedate you before the procedure. If they don't, then the procedure is quite uncomfortable; not exactly painful, but unpleasant.

Incidentally, if they find and remove a polyp, they will plant a tattoo inside your gut to mark the spot, for the benefit of future spelunking visitors.

Re: Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

#53
post #3

> When the investigators compared just the 42% of participants in the invited group who actually showed up for a colonoscopy to the control group, they saw about a 30% reduction in colon cancer risk and a 50% reduction in colon cancer death. I’m really confused by this data. First of all, are they testing the efficacy of colonoscopy or the efficacy of inviting people to colonoscopy? And then how is the former group’s…

The gold standard is the invitation. Imagine a study where you try to get one group of people to exercise, and you leave the other alone as a control group. Imagine you find that everyone who actually does the exercise lives much longer. This might be due to the exercise, or it could be that exercise doesn't work but healthier more responsible people followed through with the exercise. And the being healthier and mor…

Seems the only way to prove the test itself reduces deaths is to force unhealthy/irrresponsible people to get colonoscopies. Is there another approach?

Re: Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

#54
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. That explanation on avoiding selection bias makes sense, but it seems like the study is saying those who choose to get a colonoscopy (whether invited or not) are 50% less likely to die of colon cancer. Also I’m not sure if the article mentioned this, but the data seems to imply that the % of people who opted to get a colonoscopy was similar in the invited and control group.

That suggests something strange though – that those who were invited but non-tested were more likely to die of colon cancer than non-invitie non-testers.

It would be unethical to refuse to invite someone with a family history of colon cancer. Thus I think it is perfectly reasonable to assume there is something different.

Re: Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

#55
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, so to properly isolate the effect of the colonoscopy on mortality, we need to do a randomized trial with just people like you -- people who would definitely get a colonoscopy if invited -- to see what the effect is. Because you're also more likely to act on early warning signs and get a cancer diagnosis in time to treat the cancer rather than die.

> Because you're also more likely to act on early warning signs and get a cancer diagnosis in time to treat the cancer rather than die. This seems to imply we should discount all treatments because people who choose to get treatment are more likely to get better, coincidentally by the same amount as the treatment's efficacy.

No, but you need to account for it when considering efficacy, because people who choose to follow through on treatments may also be taking other steps that may also improve their outcomes, and it can be hard to tease out because the mere act of telling them they should have a screening might change other behaviours even without being prompted by doctors in a way that's recorded.

E.g. it's a reasonable hypothesis that patients who are more motivated to show up might also be more motivated to look up possible causes and what other steps they can take to improve their chances.

In other words, it's reasonable to expect people who comply to potentially get better at a higher rate than the efficacy of a single treatment, and teasing out how much of this effect is due to the intervention itself and how much is due to changed behaviour due to the referral is hard.

Re: Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

#56

This is about colonoscopy screening . If you give a fecal sample and it comes up as suspicious, the next step will be a colonoscopy anyway. A colonoscopy is quite unpleasant; you starve for a day, and take an enema. They may sedate you before the procedure. If they don't, then the procedure is quite uncomfortable; not exactly painful, but unpleasant. Incidentally, if they find and remove a polyp, they will plant a ta…

[deleted]

Re: Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

#57

This is about colonoscopy screening . If you give a fecal sample and it comes up as suspicious, the next step will be a colonoscopy anyway. A colonoscopy is quite unpleasant; you starve for a day, and take an enema. They may sedate you before the procedure. If they don't, then the procedure is quite uncomfortable; not exactly painful, but unpleasant. Incidentally, if they find and remove a polyp, they will plant a ta…

> you starve for a day

fast for a day, starvation is another thing and takes weeks to set in for the average westerner

Re: Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

#58
post #30
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case they are examining colon cancer and deaths from it, and the colonoscopy is a diagnostic test for colon cancer. I feel that the results are being presented to the public in a very misleading way. People will read this headline and conclude that they don’t need to get a colonoscopy which I don’t think follows from this study at all.

> People will read this headline and conclude that they don’t need to get a colonoscopy which I don’t think follows from this study at all. What this appears to show is that you need to get a colonoscopy to avoid colon cancer; but that you don't need to get a colonoscopy to avoid death . I'd much rather avoid colon cancer entirely than have colon cancer and survive. But as GP pointed out, maybe you need something els…

> And conversely, maybe if you're not willing or able to get a colonoscopy when invited, you're more likely to ignore symptoms until it's too late.

Yes. This is the argument against relying on the secondary analysis in this study. Although the invited and standard care groups were randomized such that differences in putative confounders were adjusted for, the rejection of the intervention itself may have reintroduced systematic differences that reduce the reliability of the hypothesis that intention to screen for colon cancer reduces mortality. Possibly those who accepted screening colonoscopy are more attentive to other health and lifestyle practices that reduce colon cancer mortality.

Re: Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death

#59
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because you're also more likely to act on early warning signs and get a cancer diagnosis in time to treat the cancer rather than die. This seems to imply we should discount all treatments because people who choose to get treatment are more likely to get better, coincidentally by the same amount as the treatment's efficacy.

That's not what it means at all. The question here is a question that the medical establishment is trying to answer: namely, "What can we, as the medical establishment do, to reduce deaths from colon cancer?" For a long time, the answer has been, "Invite people to take colonscopies". What the data here appears to show is that the action, "Invite people to take colonoscopies" doesn't actually reduce deaths from colon…

> I guess I do agree that the headline is likely to be counterproductive. What the data might show is that the most effective thing you as an individual can do is to be the kind of person who takes colonoscopies when invited. The unfortunate effect it might have is to make more people into the kind of people who don't take colonoscopies when invited.

Agreed. Except the most effective thing you can do as an individual is have a colonoscopy, not be the sort of person who would have one :-)

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