Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B • Hacker News Board

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#51

Post by matthewdgreen » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

iskander wrote: post #35

giantg2 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If people focused on functional/survivable structures, then it wouldn't be an issue. Initial construction might be 1.5x-2x the cost, but it'd be better than rebuilding every couple decades. But I guess they wouldn't be as pretty as they'd want.

Miami has the sturdiest residential construction materials of any city I have lived in. Cinderblock is extremely common. It still doesn't save your home if you build at 5ft above sea level and a hurricane brings 15ft of storm surge.

All new construction in Sanibel, FL (which got hit hard by Ian) is required to have one floor of "sacrificial space" above which finished living structure can be built. In most homes this is a garage or above-ground storage room with no drywall, and all electrical connections at least several feet off the floor. This doesn't make storm surge cost-free and we have yet to see whether it was enough for Ian, but I doubt the storm surge reached more than 6ft.

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#52

Post by vkou » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

snarf21 wrote: post #4

I can only assume it will go higher. We need to push FEMA to have a 2 and done rule. After that the property must be returned back to dunes/parks/public spaces.

Under that rule, what exactly is your plan for replacing all the life-critical logistics infrastructure across the entire Gulf coast?

Just abandon the whole thing as a sacrifice zone? How exactly are you going to do any international shipping? Get goods down the Mississippi? Refine half the gasoline the country uses?

People don't live in hurricane zones because it's fun. People live there because that's where the jobs are. Many of them aren't bullshit jobs, and are far more critical to life and limb than yet another dogwalking mobile app.

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#53

Post by coryfklein » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

Entinel wrote: post #20

As someone who has lived in the pacific north my entire life I have no experience with things like this. Does the southeast build their structures differently knowing they are going to get hammered by hurricanes? Japan builds knowing they need to be resistant against earthquakes for example.

I'd also love to hear from an expert, but my understanding is that building codes make some accomodations for a general expectation of flooding (like no basements allowed), but the region has a huge safety net in FEMA and other disaster relief funds, and so for any given house it makes more financial sense to build more cheaply and then use relief funds to rebuild when the disaster actually comes.

This likely is making for a good deal of misaligned incentives, where public disaster relief expenses could be much less if building codes were raised in these areas, but such change is likely to be slow in coming and we should expect the status quo to continue for some time.

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#54

Post by cpurdy » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #17

snarf21 wrote: post #4

I can only assume it will go higher. We need to push FEMA to have a 2 and done rule. After that the property must be returned back to dunes/parks/public spaces.

Hurricanes are a fact of life in the gulf and southeastern atlantic coasts. There is no area that has not have been hit twice already in the past century. So all this coastline should be dunes and park spaces?

"So all this coastline should be dunes and park spaces?"

Yes. That makes sense to me.

What's the downside?

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#55

Post by nrmitchi » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #17

snarf21 wrote: post #4

I can only assume it will go higher. We need to push FEMA to have a 2 and done rule. After that the property must be returned back to dunes/parks/public spaces.

Hurricanes are a fact of life in the gulf and southeastern atlantic coasts. There is no area that has not have been hit twice already in the past century. So all this coastline should be dunes and park spaces?

There is a huge difference between "don't use the space at all" and "don't build buildings that are unsuited for the location".

There is also a difference between "my roof was damaged by high wind" repairs and "my house and everything I own floated away due to storm surge" repairs. I'm not trying to speak for OP, but typically the style of "2 and then done" plans are for the latter style of damage (where the damage is into the low-mid 6 figures), not the former (where damage is low-mid 5 figures).

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#56

Post by jackattackx » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #17

snarf21 wrote: post #4

I can only assume it will go higher. We need to push FEMA to have a 2 and done rule. After that the property must be returned back to dunes/parks/public spaces.

Hurricanes are a fact of life in the gulf and southeastern atlantic coasts. There is no area that has not have been hit twice already in the past century. So all this coastline should be dunes and park spaces?

No post body was provided.

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#57

Post by matthewdgreen » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:35 PM UTC

jdhn wrote: post #48

Entinel wrote: post #20

As someone who has lived in the pacific north my entire life I have no experience with things like this. Does the southeast build their structures differently knowing they are going to get hammered by hurricanes? Japan builds knowing they need to be resistant against earthquakes for example.

Florida has strict building codes for places that are within the wind zone (so basically the bottom half of the peninsula). Miami Dade has even stricter rules. However, this only applies to newer houses. Ft Meyers (the worst hit area0 had lots of houses that were built pre-Andrew, which was the event that drove the increase in building codes.

And lots of prefab homes.

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#58

Post by jeffbee » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:36 PM UTC

jdhn wrote: post #48

Entinel wrote: post #20

As someone who has lived in the pacific north my entire life I have no experience with things like this. Does the southeast build their structures differently knowing they are going to get hammered by hurricanes? Japan builds knowing they need to be resistant against earthquakes for example.

Florida has strict building codes for places that are within the wind zone (so basically the bottom half of the peninsula). Miami Dade has even stricter rules. However, this only applies to newer houses. Ft Meyers (the worst hit area0 had lots of houses that were built pre-Andrew, which was the event that drove the increase in building codes.

The building code does not seem to have prevented anyone from building on fill less than 1m above MSSL.

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#59

Post by peterangular » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:37 PM UTC

michael1999 wrote: post #22

SoftTalker wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hurricanes are a fact of life in the gulf and southeastern atlantic coasts. There is no area that has not have been hit twice already in the past century. So all this coastline should be dunes and park spaces?

Calgary did this after the 2013 Bow river flood. They bailed out the homeowners. But if they choose to rebuild on those lots, next time they get zero. They are on their own. If catastrophic hurricanes are really going to happen every 10 years, should the federal government be subsidizing the coastal lifestyle and building you a new house each time? Consider: 100B/100M taxpayers = $1000 per person. Can you really say…

> If catastrophic hurricanes are really going to happen every 10 years, should the federal government be subsidizing the coastal lifestyle and building you a new house each time?

No.

Unlike other subsidies there is no greater economic/societal good created from people having their costal homes. And, unlike other disaster situations, hurricanes in that region are an outright guarantee.

Also, this is just going to keep getting worse with climate change.

I agree with Calgary. People are free to live there, but not on my dime.

Re: Hurricane Ian damages in Southeast estimated at $100B to $120B

#60

Post by PM_me_your_math » Fri, Sep 30, 2022, 5:37 PM UTC

snarf21 wrote: post #4

I can only assume it will go higher. We need to push FEMA to have a 2 and done rule. After that the property must be returned back to dunes/parks/public spaces.

I must say that is a terrible idea.

Should parts of CA or other earthquake prone areas be labelled uninhabitable?

What about areas where forest fires are routine?

Flood prone areas? Tornado prone areas? High UV? Poor air quality?

It makes no sense whatsoever to dictate that people cannot live on the coasts due to natural disasters which happen everywhere, all the time.

Frankly, being told where to live is more garish than being told what to think and what to say.