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Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

countercraft.substack.com

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Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#51
> It is true that most people in publishing up to and including the CEOs cannot tell you for sure what books are going to make their year.

Sadly, this is why books by celebrities or with a TV or movie tie in are the first to be published and have the most marketing spend.

Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#52

>>>0.4% or 163 books sold 100,000 copies or more >>>0.7% or 320 books sold between 50,000-99,999 copies >>>2.2% or 1,015 books sold between 20,000-49,999 copies >>>3.4% or 1,572 books sold between 10,000-19,999 copies >>>5.5% or 2,518 books sold between 5,000-9,999 copies >>>21.6% or 9,863 books sold between 1,000-4,999 copies >>>51.4% or 23,419 sold between 12-999 copies >>>14.7% or 6,701 books sold under 12 copies…

BookScan isn't a reliable source of information unfortunately. It only counts when a book's ISBN is physically scanned over a scanner (no ebook, audio book, libraries, specialty sales, etc) and also only covers 75% of retail in general. Generally, you can bet BookScan largely undercounts by a very wide margin.

A sample of 75% of retail sales is a substantially larger sample than, say, the estimates by the US Census.

If you believe that BookScan isn't reliable, then you also have to believe that the US Census data is totally crap.

Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#53
post #12

The whole 2% makes 95% of all revenues doesn't just apply to books... it certainly is true for the video game industry, and I suspect, most of the industries being sold online.

On video game sales, I find it interesting how successful games can be while being 90% the same as an existing established game. I’m not coming at this from some kind of ethics/copyright perspective, I think it’s totally fine to rehash the same idea. I’m just surprised they sell so well when I look and think “why would I buy this, I basically already have it”. The particular example I’m thinking of is a series called…

It's funny that your first thought is "why would I buy this, I basically already have it."

I think a much more common reaction people have to titles is "why would I buy this, it isn't like what I already have."

Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#54

Pretty long post for "I know that I know nothing". However, there is gold in the comment section: Kristen McLean actually throws some numbers at us [1]. "66% of those books from the top 10 publishers sold less than 1,000 copies over 52 weeks". Well, uh, that's what I thought. Interesting nonetheless. [1] https://countercraft.substack.com/p/no-most-books-dont-sell-...

I know that I know nothing is a very important realization, though, and if a lot of words helps someone else realize that they know nothing, too, it's probably worth it.

Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#55
post #12

The whole 2% makes 95% of all revenues doesn't just apply to books... it certainly is true for the video game industry, and I suspect, most of the industries being sold online.

On video game sales, I find it interesting how successful games can be while being 90% the same as an existing established game. I’m not coming at this from some kind of ethics/copyright perspective, I think it’s totally fine to rehash the same idea. I’m just surprised they sell so well when I look and think “why would I buy this, I basically already have it”. The particular example I’m thinking of is a series called…

Isn't that pretty similar to how people consume everything else? With books, people tend to pick genres. "Regency era humorous romance novels with a cinnamon role love interest," "pop science economics books," "supernatural murder mystery." Heck, "Adventure about a character reincarnated in a fantasy world with video game mechanics" is still broad enough to be an entire genre (hello out there, all you LitRPG people!). In that context, a second time management cooking game doesn't seem at all odd to me. Certainly it's a breath of fresh air from first person shooter #918738.

Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you limit your data to those published by (fairly) large publishers, you've already skewed the data irreparably. Most of them won't even look at a book unless an agent brings it to them, and most agents won't represent most would-be authors. On the other hand, some technical books don't require agents, and O'Reilly has to be a very large publisher in terms of books sold. Some other categories don't, either -- I…

> On the other hand, some technical books don't require agents, and O'Reilly has to be a very large publisher in terms of books sold. I think you are drastically over-estimating the share of developers that read software development related books. Out of the 150+ software engineers I worked with on a daily basis throughout my career so far, I can guarantee you not even 5% have ever read programming books (and I work…

Really? I can't think of any dev I've worked with who didn't at least have some reference books handy. Though to be fair, it's been 10 years or so since I've worked in-person with people on a daily basis, so maybe my impression is just way out of date.

I still buy the occasional programming book, but nothing like I used to now that we have all the online resources.

Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#57

Pretty long post for "I know that I know nothing". However, there is gold in the comment section: Kristen McLean actually throws some numbers at us [1]. "66% of those books from the top 10 publishers sold less than 1,000 copies over 52 weeks". Well, uh, that's what I thought. Interesting nonetheless. [1] https://countercraft.substack.com/p/no-most-books-dont-sell-...

I know that I know nothing is a very important realization, though, and if a lot of words helps someone else realize that they know nothing, too, it's probably worth it.

Sure as hell isn’t for me.

Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#58
Another misleading statement is that most books sell a thousand or fewer copies. This makes no delineation between fiction, which is generally intended for a large, broad audience, compared to non-fiction, which is more specific and more books are published as non fiction. Technical, reference books are expected to sell far fewer copies compared to teen fiction.

Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#59

Pretty long post for "I know that I know nothing". However, there is gold in the comment section: Kristen McLean actually throws some numbers at us [1]. "66% of those books from the top 10 publishers sold less than 1,000 copies over 52 weeks". Well, uh, that's what I thought. Interesting nonetheless. [1] https://countercraft.substack.com/p/no-most-books-dont-sell-...

I know that I know nothing is a very important realization, though, and if a lot of words helps someone else realize that they know nothing, too, it's probably worth it.

Sure, but don’t click the publish button. There is already so much noise out there that we shouldn’t actively drown out people who actually do know something.

Re: Most books don't sell only a dozen copies

#60

I really don't like "fact-checking" articles like this which don't contain many useful facts, only pedantry. The first comment (by Kristen McLean from NPD BookScan) is much more interesting than the article itself: >>>0.4% or 163 books sold 100,000 copies or more >>>0.7% or 320 books sold between 50,000-99,999 copies >>>2.2% or 1,015 books sold between 20,000-49,999 copies >>>3.4% or 1,572 books sold between 10,000-1…

I think those data points work together with the "let's think this through for a bit" approach of the article. Particularly, note that the stats that you quoted in your comment are for a 52-week period and include everything that could be considered a "book." I think it's quite logical that 2007's Farmer's Almanac would sell less than 12 copies in the last year, or some vanity-published, typo-laden sci-fi novel of the type my family would sometimes get for me for Christmas (because if it's sold by the Amazon dot Com then it can't be that bad, right?).
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