There are so many forces pulling in so many directions. The world is being re-shuffled. Ultimately, I don't think it will favor labor at US/FAANG talent prices.
- Young workers typically want to socialize with other young workers
- Older workers prefer to be alone, with family, etc. Have funds for larger homes and at-home amenities
- Nearly everyone hates commutes
- Cities are expensive and small, but exciting. Rural is large, open, inexpensive, but can be socially boring
- Office REITs want a return to the office because that's how they make their income
- Cities want a return to the office to support their tax base and economies
- Offices and cities are a huge tax on companies
- Some managers like to manage in person
- Extroverted roles may tend to prefer in person
- Physical work (hardware), whiteboarding, etc. are harder to do remotely. (Or impossible. You can't passage cell cultures remotely.)
- Much of the time spent in the office is wasted / distracting
- Remote work allows greater flexibility of running errands, doing chores, multi-tasking, childcare, ...
- Workers will tend to choose remote work over onsite work if the pay is the same
- It's expensive to live and work in California, not so much in middle America
- The pool of talent stretches far beyond America. Fungible remote workers means you can pay $50k for someone in another country to do the job of a $300k+ FAANG worker.
From a purely economic perspective, it seems like remote work will win out. But that entails drastic and cascading changes to everything. Labor will move beyond expensive American borders and become much cheaper for companies to hire and replace.