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UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

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Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#51
post #22

We have a corrupt government and media that itch each others back. There's still a complete lack of urgency. A potential new prime minister trying to defend profits of energy companies recently on TV just shows you the Modus operandi of the political class. It might push people to riots in the streets.

I don’t believe Brits are capable of revolting against this. They did hit the streets in anti-lockdown protests though, which is ironic because in the grand scheme of things that (lockdown) was temporary, but this inflation wave will be madly felt for quite long.

The anti-lock down protesters were a fringe group. An energy crisis is different matter. It will not only affect the lunatic fringe, this will affect everyone.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#52

A Mix of Brexit, an aging population, massive underinvestment in basically everything, covid mishandling and huge debt means the UK is around year 0 of a lost decade. I will leave if I can.

Since this is also related to higher energy prices, do you think the invasion on Ukraine is also a contributing factor? Although if that were the case, we’d also see as high of inflation in other European countries?

Yes, we're seeing inflation rates across the board above 10%, which is where the UK sits today. Estonia is the highest at 23%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation...

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#53
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately we'd need another 5 years to really make a difference whereas the gas crisis is going to hit us in months.

True. But 5-years ago this national security reliance on foreign gas prices was well known, and little was done in the intervening time. The worry is that when the current crisis subsides that inaction will yet again fall back into favor. The solutions are, in part: - National gas storage reserve (to buffet price/supply spikes somewhat). - Expansion of green energy. - Programs to reduce usage (e.g. home and business…

COP is not efficiency. Efficiency is what you did / what you had the resources to do in an ideal world.

That makes thermal chemical heating 20-50% efficient, thermal electric heating 10-30% and heat pumps 50-70% efficient (depending on where you draw the boundaries).

You could also draw the limit at reduced carnot efficiency rather than reversibility, in which case heat pumps can be close to 100%

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#54
We should probably ban loads of our low paid workers from entering the country, print a load of money and give it to people, tell the remaining workers to stay at home, change all of our working practices so that they don't match our infrastructure, and unilaterally sever trade with partners that sell us energy.

What could possibly go wrong?

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#55

We have a corrupt government and media that itch each others back. There's still a complete lack of urgency. A potential new prime minister trying to defend profits of energy companies recently on TV just shows you the Modus operandi of the political class. It might push people to riots in the streets.

Didn't happen with the bankers 10 years ago, I'm not sure that normal people have the inclination or fight.

Most UK cities had big occupy protests, we had one in my city in the UK for quite a while.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#56

A looming catastrophe in the UK and the government is doing nothing. I've seen some crazy stuff here over the last 12 years but this is next level.

> and the government is doing nothing.

What do you think the government should do?

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#57
post #30

With two candidates for the next UK PM having polar opposite views on how to fix the economy, who do you think is more correct in their proposal: Sunak or Truss?

Assuming one has to be "more correct" is a fool's errand. You are talking about the dregs of an already corrupt and ideologically (rather than evidence) driven party that was further culled to only those who were willing to support the current inept and corrupt PM.

The Tories are so out of ideas and people with any talent or charisma, they think these two are the best they have to offer. Both have literally nothing to address this except doubling down on fantasy economics that we can see hasn't worked up to this point.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#58
post #22

We have a corrupt government and media that itch each others back. There's still a complete lack of urgency. A potential new prime minister trying to defend profits of energy companies recently on TV just shows you the Modus operandi of the political class. It might push people to riots in the streets.

I don’t believe Brits are capable of revolting against this. They did hit the streets in anti-lockdown protests though, which is ironic because in the grand scheme of things that (lockdown) was temporary, but this inflation wave will be madly felt for quite long.

They hit the streets with the Poll Tax riots

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#59

We have a corrupt government and media that itch each others back. There's still a complete lack of urgency. A potential new prime minister trying to defend profits of energy companies recently on TV just shows you the Modus operandi of the political class. It might push people to riots in the streets.

From the article:

>The investment bank predicted that the country’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much households pay for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1,971 a year.... Nabarro said Citi’s new forecasts had taken account of a 25 per cent increase in wholesale gas prices last week and a 7 per cent rise in wholesale electricity prices.

No price controls can account for the fact that energy prices are up a lot globally. Pretending they're not up and keeping the price cap in place is worse. First it doesn't discourage energy usage. That's a big purpose of prices in a market economy. Second, when something is priced below market price it inevitably leads to shortages. This will have to be addressed through some kind of political action that will be sub-optimal. Rather than a young person seeing higher energy prices and adjusting their AC, while an old person may choose to pay the higher price, you'll see ham-fisted conservation measures.

If you're against having the customer's price reflect more closely the market price, you have to propose an alternative. Do you want people to use less? If so, how do you do that? Or do you want people to continue using the same, pretend the high prices don't exist and just pay for it through taxes? Either way, the money will have to come from somewhere or rationing will have to take place. There's no free lunch

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#60

A Mix of Brexit, an aging population, massive underinvestment in basically everything, covid mishandling and huge debt means the UK is around year 0 of a lost decade. I will leave if I can.

Since this is also related to higher energy prices, do you think the invasion on Ukraine is also a contributing factor? Although if that were the case, we’d also see as high of inflation in other European countries?

CF Industries shut down their two nitrogen fertilizer plants in the U.K. back in September 2021 due to high natural gas prices.
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