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Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

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Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#51

Post by cma »

klyrs wrote: post #24
bufferoverflow wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? I watch FSD progress, and it's clearly getting closer to human level driving. Just go on YouTube and compare FSD from two years ago to the latest. It's night and day. Yes, it still makes mistakes. Humans make mistakes all the time while driving. As for build quality, we haven't had any major problems with our Model 3. It's a great car. Tesla has a media problem, where every little problem…

Does it work in rain, snow, and/or night? How about country roads and roads without clearly marked lanes or misleading lane lines? It's like hiring a plumber who can only flush toilets, not install them. Self driving in pristine conditions is a party trick. Until it can do the hard part, it's nowhere near human-level.

At autonomy investor day they were saying better than a human in all human drivable conditions by 2020 for the robotaxi network they said they would launch then. They confirmed they meant level 5 autonomy in answer to a direct question.

They knew dojo wouldn't be online by then and they didn't even really train on video at that point, just trying to judge the scene image by image instead of taking into account prior frames (like knowing someone walked behind a bush 1p frames ago, so that sliver of emerging leg from behind a bush that might not be detectable confidently enough from a single image should be weighted higher).

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#52

Post by epgui »

ac29 wrote: post #45
mlyle wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many people who have bought FSD from Tesla, and have had their car reach end of life without ever getting to enjoy FSD. It's possible after being "less than a year away" for... a decade... that it may be less than a year away now. But it looks like a bit of skepticism has been earned.

Are Teslas really end of life after 8 years? Why such a limited lifespan?

I don’t think that’s typical.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#53

Post by epgui »

ghostpepper wrote: post #38
epgui wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would seem the market (and more current engineering and design reviews) disagrees with you!

It's shocking to me that people are willing to pay to be beta testers for Tesla's entirely-from-scratch manufacturing process and smartphone-with-wheels style of car experience but it doesn't matter what I think - that's the beauty of capitalism.

Exactly. I wouldn’t buy FSD myself (I take the bus), but other people would, and I still find the thing’s development immensely fascinating to follow.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#54

Post by abc_lisper »

ghostpepper wrote: post #38
epgui wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would seem the market (and more current engineering and design reviews) disagrees with you!

It's shocking to me that people are willing to pay to be beta testers for Tesla's entirely-from-scratch manufacturing process and smartphone-with-wheels style of car experience but it doesn't matter what I think - that's the beauty of capitalism.

Rent it for a few days and you will see

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#55

Post by krisoft »

voakbasda wrote: post #15
_Microft wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk once argued that once full self-driving works, it would be more profitable for Tesla to use these cars for an own taxi service than it would be to sell them to customers. They plan to raise the price even more the closer they (claim to) get to their goal.

I don’t understand that endgame. I would never want strangers in my car unsupervised. They will be having sex, puking, changing diapers, and worse. Just imagine all of the fluids and smells that they would leave behind. How is this remotely a good idea?

> I don’t understand that endgame. I would never want strangers in my car unsupervised.

You are misunderstanding the comment you are replying to.

It doesn't say "Tesla utilises the car which it sold to you as a taxi". It says that Tesla doesn't sell you a car. And they don't sell you a car because they can make better money by using their factory output as taxis, than by selling it to you.

Which means it won't be your car.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#56

Post by abc_lisper »

kaczordon wrote: post #39
bufferoverflow wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? I watch FSD progress, and it's clearly getting closer to human level driving. Just go on YouTube and compare FSD from two years ago to the latest. It's night and day. Yes, it still makes mistakes. Humans make mistakes all the time while driving. As for build quality, we haven't had any major problems with our Model 3. It's a great car. Tesla has a media problem, where every little problem…

The suspension on the model 3 and Y is definitely not luxury. Nor is the interior build quality. I own a model Y and there’s plenty of creaks and noises in it that other car models don’t have. Also the highway FSD is still ridiculously bad with it’s phantom braking where at 70MPH your car will just slam on the brakes. And highway driving is the easy version that most other manufacturers have now too. And now it looks…

If phantom braking is reproducible, ie it happens at the same place and time(because sun angle) you should report it to Tesla. Or post a YouTube and link on Twitter. In 15k miles of mostly autopilot, I have had phantom brake happen once or twice. I’m in the Bay Area. It happened when it couldn’t tell wether the shadow of over cross bridge from a physical object. What is your experience?

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#57

Post by conductr »

davewritescode wrote: post #27

This is ultimately why I believe Elon Musk isn't the right guy to lead Tesla anymore and hasn't been for a while. Car companies live and die by attracting new customers but also by bringing back existing customers. Lots of car brands bend over backwards to keep you coming back. When you fail to deliver what you've promised or significantly raise prices without delivering value in return, you're not building a loyal c…

This is my take and why I’ve never owned one. I’m in process of buying 2 new “luxury” cars for our family and Tesla’s not even in the realm of consideration.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#58

Post by sudosysgen »

Geee wrote: post #35
bufferoverflow wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? I watch FSD progress, and it's clearly getting closer to human level driving. Just go on YouTube and compare FSD from two years ago to the latest. It's night and day. Yes, it still makes mistakes. Humans make mistakes all the time while driving. As for build quality, we haven't had any major problems with our Model 3. It's a great car. Tesla has a media problem, where every little problem…

> Tesla has a media problem, where every little problem gets reported as if it's systemic and unfixable. Similar to Apple, people expect more from them than anyone else. Minor issues on Apple products are always scandals. Remember Antennagate? People were sure that it would sink Apple, because "they don't know how to make antennas". People and media handle Tesla similarly, and minor issues are blown out of proportion…

Tesla promised Level 5 autonomy in all conditions by 2020. People paid a lot of money based on that promise.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#59

Post by IMcD23 »

s1mon wrote: post #48

I recently rented a 2022 Model 3 from Hertz for 9 days. It didn't have the FSD option available, but it did have the preview of what the system would see. Based on that alone, I was alternately impressed and terrified of what the FSD experience would be like. It was mostly accurate in showing other vehicles, but some of their trajectories when turning in front of me looked like a really bad video game with weird orie…

The Autopilot visualization is different than the FSD visualization, and the FSD UI shows significantly more detail. Go search YouTube for some FSD videos and you’ll see what it looks like.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#60

Post by wopwops »

It's not going to work. I happen to be friends with a top AI researcher and he laughs it off completely. "No way." He referred me to this:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-tesla-self-dr...

"It's all hype," said Steven E. Shladover, a retired research engineer at the University of California, Berkeley who has been involved in efforts to create autonomous driving for 45 years. "The technology does not exist to do what he is claiming. He doesn't have it and neither does anybody else."

---

It's not close to working at all. Musk must know it.

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