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John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

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Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#51

Post by nl »

comedian wrote: post #32
cheald wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gruber's right because the mobile market is expanding. However, his loyalty to Apple keeps him from saying what he really should have said: Get into mobile (Apple AND Android), hard and fast. About 77 million of the "big two" (60 million Android, 17 million iPhone) smartphones shipped in Q3 2011. Apple has a huge install base, but it's not Apple's game anymore - Android has more than 3x Apple's marketshare, and is on…

It seems to me that Android is the next Nokia. Large market share but like Nokia their marketshare is almost worthless since Android users dont spend as much money as iOS users. At least that's what everybody's saying.

A developer on HN submitted this a few months ago: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2929612

His summary: Android=$4428.08, iOS=$5914 (over the same time period)

So it is true that Android users spent less, but not by a huge amount.

Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#52

Post by mmaunder »

josephcooney wrote: post #4

I don't want to under-estimate the importance of movable type...but what has Gruber developed? Looking at the list at http://daringfireball.net/projects/ doesn't exactly fill me with shock and awe. I'd imagine with his huge following in the apple community he could put almost anything on the app store and it would sell. Can someone enlighten me? I guess my meta-point is, why am I reading software development career a…

Gruber created DaringFireball and that's enough street cred for me.

Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#53

Post by steve-howard »

coderdude wrote: post #44
danilocampos wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've missed, entirely, the point. What Gruber is saying is that anyone who is developing for Apple's platforms is about to enjoy an enormous surge of opportunity. As these platforms see even further adoption, their capability will only increase. So if you're in Apple's playground, you're watching it turn into Disneyworld in a way that will never come again once these devices are baked into people's assumptions abou…

>>What Gruber is saying is that anyone who is developing for Apple's platforms is about to enjoy an enormous surge of opportunity. [etc] Of course he is. That's all he ever does. Everything he says is worthless because you already know how lacking in substance the man is. Damn the Apple users who keep upvoting his garbage.

I wouldn't have put it so harshly myself, but I did see the article and immediately think "John Gruber is going to tell me to write software for Apple products." I would have been mildly interested to have been wrong.

Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#54

Post by cooldeal »

The bottom 80% of apps split just 3% of the revenue.

From http://www.fastcompany.com/1792313/striking-it-rich-in-the-a...

Developer Daniel Markham calls iPhone development “App Store Roulette,” and Andy Finnell of the software studio Fortunate Bear cautions against hoping for App Store success. “You’re betting a lot of this on luck, and the odds are stacked against you," Finnell says. "You’d have better odds playing slots at a casino.”

Indeed, as much as app development has been called a gold rush, there is an equally loud theory that it operates more like a casino.

“The closest thing I’ve seen to a ‘business model’ for marketing iPhone apps is to advertise like crazy until you get into the top 50,” says David Barnard of AppCubby. “Once you’re there, the top 50 list will start generating its own buzz...But that’s not a business model, that’s like rolling the dice at a casino.”

Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#55

Post by steve-howard »

ryanhuff wrote: post #25
barumrho wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that analogy really works because there is not much distinction between "Apple developers" and other developers. There is no barrier to start developing on Apple platforms and there probably won't be for the next big platform. Low barrier to entry is one key factor of a platform's success.

Sure there are barriers. A few that come to mind include the $99 per year Apple developer program fee, which is necessary to distribute apps, the Mac OS requirement, and the objective c hurdle. These may seem more like inconvenience barriers, but they do keep people away from the development pool.

I'm sure as hell not buying a Mac just to write for Apple's walled gardens. Inconvenience is an understatement.

Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#56

Post by comedian »

cooldeal wrote: post #54

The bottom 80% of apps split just 3% of the revenue. From http://www.fastcompany.com/1792313/striking-it-rich-in-the-a... Developer Daniel Markham calls iPhone development “App Store Roulette,” and Andy Finnell of the software studio Fortunate Bear cautions against hoping for App Store success. “You’re betting a lot of this on luck, and the odds are stacked against you," Finnell says. "You’d have better odds playing…

Do you truly believe this? Do I really have to explain the difference between a casino and the app store?

Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#57

Post by msbarnett »

steele wrote: post #14
puls wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's a pundit, but he's really close with all of the influential developers in the community. He's more in tune with the Apple community than perhaps any one other person, and his track record of being right is unmatched in the last several years.

hmm, who are the influential developers in the iOS community?

Some names that spring to mind, off the top of my head and in no particular order: Loren Brichter, Marco Arment, Matt Gemmel, Matt Gallagher, and Steven Frank.

Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#58

Post by rglover »

It may sound incredibly frivolous now, but he's right. Irrespective of Apple or iOS, this is the time to be doing something more. I think the message here goes beyond just developing for iOS, but rather, for everything. Build something that you love, work for a company where you feel like you're doing something worthwhile. Whatever you do, make sure you're working on something that makes you say "fuck yeah." Don't neglect what's about to happen. We're about to see a major shift in technology and for those who are truly passionate about it, you'll want to be a part of it.

Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#59

Post by coderdude »

GHFigs wrote: post #39
cheald wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gruber's right because the mobile market is expanding. However, his loyalty to Apple keeps him from saying what he really should have said: Get into mobile (Apple AND Android), hard and fast. About 77 million of the "big two" (60 million Android, 17 million iPhone) smartphones shipped in Q3 2011. Apple has a huge install base, but it's not Apple's game anymore - Android has more than 3x Apple's marketshare, and is on…

It's disingenuous to focus on Apple at a Mac/iOS-centric symposium?

Why are you even asking? You know that's not what he said.

Re: John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

#60

Post by StavrosK »

comedian wrote: post #56
cooldeal wrote: post #54

The bottom 80% of apps split just 3% of the revenue. From http://www.fastcompany.com/1792313/striking-it-rich-in-the-a... Developer Daniel Markham calls iPhone development “App Store Roulette,” and Andy Finnell of the software studio Fortunate Bear cautions against hoping for App Store success. “You’re betting a lot of this on luck, and the odds are stacked against you," Finnell says. "You’d have better odds playing…

Do you truly believe this? Do I really have to explain the difference between a casino and the app store?

No, one is a place where you bet lots of money and hope you get a large enough return, but usually lose it all, and the other has free drinks.
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