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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#51

Post by njarboe »

elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry.

The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will shrink dramatically or go bankrupt. People already know this and that is why there is a bill in Congress that is a stealth bailout of the domestic auto industry with a $7500 tax credit on cars that have just $750 worth of batteries in them.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#52

Post by JonShartwell »

mimikatz wrote: post #21
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

Yes we do, that's literally what a marketcap is. People who are sure it isn't correct can beat against it and profit in the correction.

Does the word “correction” not imply that the previous price was incorrect?

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#53

Post by deaddodo »

briffle wrote: post #14
StevePerkins wrote: post #5

I remember the first computer that I ever built (it was cheaper to do it yourself back at the dawn of globalization). I used an AMD 386 rather than an Intel 386. Simply for the youthful reasons that I liked AMD's logo better, and I've always tended to root for the underdog. I'm not much of a PC gamer, and so I haven't built a machine from scratch or thought much about individual components in decades. But there's a s…

Mine was a cyrix "pentium compatible". I miss having 3 players in the game. I believe they got bought by Transmeta, back when Linus Torvalds was employed by them.

Cyrix was bought by Via (via National Semiconductor) and rolled into their Isaiah architecture along with Centaur's architecture. That was then used in Nano[1]. It is now being used in Chinese co-developed and fabbed x86 options[2].

The rest of their technology was bought by AMD and used in it's MediaGX/Geode chips[3].

1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIA_Nano

2 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhaoxin

3 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geode_(processor)#AMD_Geode

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#54

Post by tiahura »

FinalBriefing wrote: post #39
tiahura wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things are worth what others are actually willing to pay, there is no such thing as a metaphysical true worth. So yes, Tesla is actually worth whatever the market cap is.

That idea seems to be ignoring the fact that other brands just haven't made EVs yet. People want Telsas now because, for a long time, they were the only good EVs on the market. As other companies are now rolling out their first EVs, Tesla's market cap will surly go down. I've also heard the argument that Tesla's network of chargers brings more value, but...there will also be more competitors in that space in the near…

You moved the goalpost. What the market cap will be tomorrow is a different question than what is it worth right now. Shares of TSLA are trading at the market price right now. Tomorrow the price and market cap may be different, but it will still be the price sellers will sell and buyers buy.

There is no true value set by Buddha, Buffet, Robinhood, or ML.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#55

Post by svara »

theropost wrote: post #30
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

Yes, people think Tesla is more valuable than the other car markets combined. I honestly don't see the ICE manufacturers really having an edge when it comes to the future of transportation. If anything, I see them having a huge liability - that is a large workforce to reskill, pensions to pay, antiquitated plants to upgrade/maintain, old supply chains to wind down, new supply chains to wind up - if anything, newer en…

Maybe some people think that, but sometimes people are deluded or simply are investing based on the greater fool theory.

The latter reason means that even the market as a whole might not actually believe in the current market cap, in the long term.

I'm personally super skeptical of this market cap. I've been renting a Tesla Model 3 the last couple weeks. It's an awesome car that I would recommend to anyone. When you first drive it you can appreciate what a good job Tesla have done to make it feel like a car from the future. But at the end of the day it's a car. It's got lots of small flaws too, and the self-driving features have scared the shit out of me due to errors they made more than a few times already.

Based on this experience it seems completely implausible that Tesla will be able to keep up this "car from the future" experience for very long. How? They're not a leader in self driving, and even if they were, why would they remain so indefinitely? What other innovations would justify this image? People will get used to electric vehicles very quickly, that won't feel new anymore before long.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#56

Post by Aloha »

njarboe wrote: post #51
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

I dont think they can continue to grow at that rate and preserve their gross margin. The high end part of the market isnt large enough to sustain 20m cars a year. To give you an idea, for scale, the two largest producers made 10m each in 2019 roughly respectively - and those two are VW and Toyota. I cannot see in any way for Tesla to displace that many units and maintain their margins at the level they have them.

The big three domestic manufacturers largely shed their pension liabilities to the UAW when they last went (or nearly went in the case of Ford) bankrupt in 2008.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#57

Post by tiahura »

ido wrote: post #29
tiahura wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things are worth what others are actually willing to pay, there is no such thing as a metaphysical true worth. So yes, Tesla is actually worth whatever the market cap is.

The less literal reading of OPs statements is that Tesla is overvalued & will at some point in the future face correction down to a value more in line with their sales/profit potential. I have no horse in the game (no Tesla nor any other automotive stocks) but we’ve definitely seen companies being massively overvalued in the past and then face fierce correction - AOL was once worth $222 billion and later (not even th…

We’ve been hearing that for at least 4 years at this point. Along with scenarios where Volkswagen or Ford is going to teach Tesla how things really work. I’m not persuaded.

First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing.

Second, Tesla doesn’t have the legacy costs that the others do.

Also, at this point, Tesla is still selling cars faster than they can build them. Even if demand weakens, they may still be at max output.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#58

Post by Aloha »

theropost wrote: post #30
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

Yes, people think Tesla is more valuable than the other car markets combined. I honestly don't see the ICE manufacturers really having an edge when it comes to the future of transportation. If anything, I see them having a huge liability - that is a large workforce to reskill, pensions to pay, antiquitated plants to upgrade/maintain, old supply chains to wind down, new supply chains to wind up - if anything, newer en…

I think they still have a significant lead in actual production manufacturing engineering. It's one of the primary things they do, and have some of the best minds in the world for it. I think Tesla can catch up, but right now Tesla has a very outmoded plant itself, its a former GM plant built in the 60's and rebuilt for NUMI in the 80's. While they're building new ones, a majority of the big three's plants date from 1980-2005, and are newer in structure.

If you talk about how cars are built, all auto manufactures seem to follow the same basic model to build cars, robotic welded bodies, a mix of manual and robotic paint and a moving assembly line to put the rest on - everyone does it the same way with some minor variations. Similarly Toyotas JIT supply system is used the world over by all auto manufacturers because it improves the balance sheet.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#59

Post by itsoktocry »

njarboe wrote: post #51
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

>The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt

They have huge amounts of debt because they run huge financing departments and therefore also have a huge number of assets on the balance sheet.

>Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry.

They have a completely different sales model, so it's apples to oranges. Most OEMs wholesale cars to dealers, of course those margins will be smaller.

>Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030.

Base rate fallacy, extrapolated into infinity, sure.

>The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will shrink dramatically or go bankrupt.

Some will disappear or merge, of course. But the next 5 years is also crucial for Tesla, since they are still a rounding error in global market share.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#60

Post by UncleOxidant »

theropost wrote: post #30
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

Yes, people think Tesla is more valuable than the other car markets combined. I honestly don't see the ICE manufacturers really having an edge when it comes to the future of transportation. If anything, I see them having a huge liability - that is a large workforce to reskill, pensions to pay, antiquitated plants to upgrade/maintain, old supply chains to wind down, new supply chains to wind up - if anything, newer en…

> I honestly don't see the ICE manufacturers really having an edge when it comes to the future of transportation.

I honestly don't see that it's difficult for ICE manufacturers to compete in the EV space. We're seeing most ICE companies at least dipping their toes into the EV space, and in some cases they're going all in (Hyundai/Kia, VW, for example) and offering strong alternatives to Tesla.

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