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Google+ Isn’t Going Away

bits.blogs.nytimes.com

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Re: Google+ Isn’t Going Away

#51

Post by joebadmo »

bad_user wrote: post #47
joebadmo wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with your assertion is that a lot of technically inclined people know a lot of other people and want to interact with them socially. It's Facebook's most powerful and most difficult to overcome feature: all your friends are already on it. To me, the only truly viable way for Google to combat that is to create a truly open, federated collection of social networks that can interoperate, by releasing the und…

a lot of technically inclined people know a lot of other people and want to interact with them socially I remember a time when Facebook was the gathering place for technically inclined people, while normal people would hang out on MySpace or Hi5. I also remember a time when Apple products were reserved for professionals doing either creative work or software development. And speaking of Google, I also remember a time…

I remember those times, too, but MySpace never had the sheer ubiquity that Facebook has. It feel qualitatively different to me, in that I never felt like I was out of the loop or unable to communicate with certain people or excluded from certain conversations because I wasn't on MySpace. That was partly because I could see people's MySpace pages (not that I frequently wanted to) without having an account, unlike Facebook.

Yes, the technical elite from MySpace eventually moved to FB, but more importantly, FB got a ton of users that were never on MS. I don't think Google can do the same to FB, because there just aren't that many people that aren't on FB. They have to actively court current FB users. Stealing the technical crowd is relatively easy. But FB's network effect is unprecedented and represents a much bigger challenge, IMO.

Re: Google+ Isn’t Going Away

#52

Post by ajross »

badclient wrote: post #32
ajross wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like another classic error is arguing from insufficient evidence. In 2006 you probably would have argued that "Facebook as a competitor to Myspace is dead." too, no? For that matter, Myspace failed to kill facebook too. But they're still around and reasonably successful. Why does it matter so much who kills who? If you don't like G+, don't use it. If your friends are there, join in. If you don't like their poli…

Quite the opposite =) I have links to my comments on venturebeat in 2006 saying how MySpace is going to die and facebook is the big thing that no one in the Valley seems to know about.

So then I don't follow: why is arguing that G+ is dead based on usage metrics now OK, but doing it 5 years ago for facebook was wrong?

Re: Google+ Isn’t Going Away

#53

Post by badclient »

ajross wrote: post #52
badclient wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite the opposite =) I have links to my comments on venturebeat in 2006 saying how MySpace is going to die and facebook is the big thing that no one in the Valley seems to know about.

So then I don't follow: why is arguing that G+ is dead based on usage metrics now OK, but doing it 5 years ago for facebook was wrong?

The actual facebook engagement even 5 years ago was insane: "10 million users and over 50% of them sign in daily." http://theubiquitouslibrarian.typepad.com/the_ubiquitous_lib

It wasn't that people were attacking facebook's engagement 5 years ago; it was that very few people in the Valley even knew about facebook because they were lost in the myspace hype and couldn't join facebook due to the .edu requirement.

Re: Google+ Isn’t Going Away

#54

Post by Jd »

joebadmo wrote: post #39
Jd wrote: post #22

This is a bit far afield. The most likely prospect for G+ is that it becomes a social network for the more technically inclined while Facebook remains the social network for all -- a bit like the differentiation between reddit and digg. The main reason is not something great that Google is doing, however, but the immense dislike that many have for Facebook. Facebook, of course, is sucking in all data it can get acces…

The problem with your assertion is that a lot of technically inclined people know a lot of other people and want to interact with them socially. It's Facebook's most powerful and most difficult to overcome feature: all your friends are already on it. To me, the only truly viable way for Google to combat that is to create a truly open, federated collection of social networks that can interoperate, by releasing the und…

Generally speaking I agree, but Google screwed up Wave so badly that the lead developer went to work for Facebook; any developer that was in the community or building products for Wave was also so badly screwed I think they'll never work with or for Google again (Full disclosure: I was among them).

I think this needs a new company. Anyone interested?

Re: Google+ Isn’t Going Away

#55

Post by joebadmo »

Jd wrote: post #54
joebadmo wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with your assertion is that a lot of technically inclined people know a lot of other people and want to interact with them socially. It's Facebook's most powerful and most difficult to overcome feature: all your friends are already on it. To me, the only truly viable way for Google to combat that is to create a truly open, federated collection of social networks that can interoperate, by releasing the und…

Generally speaking I agree, but Google screwed up Wave so badly that the lead developer went to work for Facebook; any developer that was in the community or building products for Wave was also so badly screwed I think they'll never work with or for Google again (Full disclosure: I was among them). I think this needs a new company. Anyone interested?

That's fair, but I don't know who has the intersection of Google's clout and incentives. Google's the only powerful force that has the incentive to fight for an open web, as opposed to a collection of closed silos.

My not-so-secret hope is that the lesson Google took from the Wave debacle was to first focus on making a product that's compelling and engaging to users, get a critical mass of adoption, and then release the code. I guy can dream, can't he?

Re: Google+ Isn’t Going Away

#56

Post by Jd »

joebadmo wrote: post #55
Jd wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally speaking I agree, but Google screwed up Wave so badly that the lead developer went to work for Facebook; any developer that was in the community or building products for Wave was also so badly screwed I think they'll never work with or for Google again (Full disclosure: I was among them). I think this needs a new company. Anyone interested?

That's fair, but I don't know who has the intersection of Google's clout and incentives. Google's the only powerful force that has the incentive to fight for an open web, as opposed to a collection of closed silos. My not-so-secret hope is that the lesson Google took from the Wave debacle was to first focus on making a product that's compelling and engaging to users, get a critical mass of adoption, and then release…

It is ultimately not about clout and incentives; it is about drive. It is just like when a lot of people know what the right thing is to do but are too short sighted to pursue it (wasn't Google just trying to acquire Zynga, for example).

Re: Google+ Isn’t Going Away

#57

Post by betterlabs »

I already discover most new content via Facebook and the only missing piece is search. If Facebook builds a search engine and integrates within its core experience sooner than Google takes to get G+ to work and scale, it would be a good indication of who might eventually win. From the social perspective, Facebook already has the mental association at a massive scale that may be tough for G+ to get to, especially considering Google is perceived to be "more utility than fun" across its user base.

Re: Google+ Isn’t Going Away

#58

Post by badclient »

bitskits wrote: post #13
badclient wrote: post #8

Google+ as a competitor to facebook is dead. Now, you can come up with all the creative ideas in the world about how G+ is not supposed to be a facebook killer. I believe that is a cop out. Google really wants to kill facebook and hoped to make a dent with G+. Why is it hard to acknowledge that they haven't made any noticeable dent? And that for the most part, facebook was very quick to address the granular privacy f…

I respectfully disagree. Was your expectation that G+'s user-base would eclipse FB after 5 months? I don't think that's realistic (really going out on a limb here). By that metric you could have said the same thing about FB in the early days when MySpace had all the users. Clearly, over time, people moved to the better product. If you want to comment on the rate of adoption, that's one thing, but lets compare apples…

I don't care about the user-base numbers. All I care about is engagement. Facebook had crazy engagement even when they had 1000 members. When they had 10M, over 50% of the users were logging in daily. Google now has 40M users and yet they refuse to release engagement numbers.

Re: Google+ Isn’t Going Away

#59

Post by joebadmo »

Jd wrote: post #56
joebadmo wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's fair, but I don't know who has the intersection of Google's clout and incentives. Google's the only powerful force that has the incentive to fight for an open web, as opposed to a collection of closed silos. My not-so-secret hope is that the lesson Google took from the Wave debacle was to first focus on making a product that's compelling and engaging to users, get a critical mass of adoption, and then release…

It is ultimately not about clout and incentives; it is about drive. It is just like when a lot of people know what the right thing is to do but are too short sighted to pursue it (wasn't Google just trying to acquire Zynga, for example).

Google also seems like one of the most long-term thinking companies in existence. Self-driving cars come to mind.
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