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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#51

Post by gruturo »

akmarinov wrote: post #44
01100011 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't Tesla supposed to be producing Optimus, their human-like android, next year? Elon has been over-promising(i.e. flat out lying) about self-driving every year since.. 2014(there's a youtube video compilation of it)? It seems like his strategy is to just come up with increasingly grandiose promises every year when he fails to deliver on his past promises. He's trapped in his swirling vortex of bullshit. Very worry…

Elon in 2024: “by 2026 we’ll have actual, real teleportation” Elon in 2026: “by 2028 we’ll have FTL drives” Elon in 2028: “time machine!”

> Elon in 2028: “time machine!”

Well, to be fair, he only has to hit _that_ goal - at which point he can go back in time at his leisure and fix all the others. And he could hit even the time machine goal as late as he wants, and it won't matter.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#52

Post by xeromal »

mkl wrote: post #38
pen2l wrote: post #11

This comes after yesterday's news of Tesla letting 229 people go who were working on Autopilot: https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/12/tesla-laying-off-229-autop... .

That's pretty much a totally different category of employee, though: "Tesla is laying off 229 data annotation employees who are part of the company’s larger Autopilot team [...] Most of the workers were in moderately low-skilled, low-wage jobs, such as Autopilot data labeling" Data annotation can be cheaply outsourced or scaled up and down without much affecting progress on self-driving. Karpathy leaving says more ab…

On top of that, this might signal that Tesla is confident enough in their autolabeling that they no longer need as much human intervention. This job title theoretically should be temporary.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#53

Post by akmarinov »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #34
TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

I’ll give you best in efficiency, quick electric cars

As for luxury, quality, ride comfort - they’re just ok

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#54

Post by bhauer »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #34
TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

It was exaggeration as a figure of speech to suggest that if self-driving is solved, it will make the EV business look incredibly small.

What's shocking is how many people interpreted it literally--that the value is literally zero without self-driving--as if the successful EV business is in fact unsuccessful.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#55

Post by carbadtraingood »

jackmott42 wrote: post #16
TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

FSD may be a huge fraud but the whole company is not. The cars are real!

The cars are real but they are... Mediocre. The first year of ownership is an amazing honeymoon period, assuming you got one with decent build quality. But the parts are cheap, and they break quickly. I've had one for 5+ years and it's gradually become something I prefer driving less and less.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#56

Post by xeromal »

bsaul wrote: post #17

i wonder if tesla can afford to abandon autopilot. the strategy of always selling a futuristic vision of driving has always been core to the brand. if they happen to become just another boring electric car company, i'm not sure they can compete in the long run.

They're laying off people how label data. This isn't the devs that actually work on the software.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#57

Post by function_seven »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #26
impulser_ wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

Because self-driving has a bunch of tricky edge cases and most of them will kill people. Problems with hundreds of important edge cases cannot be solved by simply throwing more training data at the problem; that's how you solve AI problems in a "dumb" manner, and it works for lots of problems (like recognizing dogs in images) -- but not for self-driving. To solve the self-driving problem we need "smart" A.I., which m…

I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars.

Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera lens). Or lane markings that are more than just reflective paint, but can be sensed via RF. Rules around temporary construction that dictate the manner of signage and cone placement that the robot cars can understand. The cones might have little transponders in them, I don't know.

But without a massive leap forward in AI capability, our current road system—optimized for human drivers over the past century—is not going to work.

If we can't make the cars just as smart as an alert and capable driver, then maybe we need to meet halfway and make the roads a littler "dumber" (simpler) to accommodate the robots.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#59

Post by pwagland »

strikelaserclaw wrote: post #42
dreamcompiler wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

best cars in the world is a stretch

It is a stretch, but they are clearly also not the worst. The company clearly has value without FSD. Not the value that the market currently gives it, but value nonetheless.
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