Adapting to Endure – Sequoia Capital [pdf]

Anyone paying attention in the industry knew in 2019, pre-pandemic, that something wasn't quite right. Companies were hiring way more people than they needed, growing way too fast, building products that didn't make sense, pivoting to increasingly user hostile products, etc. But it kept going because VC and other investor money just kept flowing in.

Then pandemic hit. Everyone who thought things weren't right in 2019 expected the reality check to finally be cashed and for a major industry correction to happen. It should have happened. But it didn't.

Instead the Fed poured incredible amounts of money into the market. We saw stocks instantly u-turn and companies that in 2019 you were suspicious of were all of a sudden getting even more ridiculous valuations.

This happened for what is in retrospect and obvious reason: Big name investors and VCs needed time to cash out. And they got it. We saw two years of record numbers of IPOs. Myself and many others pointed out over a year ago that something wasn't right, that this looked like investors rushing to cash in their chips and get out before everything came crashing down.

Inflation started to rise, and indeed the game came to an end. Now we're going to see a crash that will be much harder than we though we would have seen in 2020 because policy has allowed already unhealthy companies to explode and grow even larger. And they're all interconnected so it's going to be ugly.

How many of your company's customers are other start ups or other tech companies? We have a generation of companies led by people who have never really seen a recession, forget one that impacts tech, completely clueless about what's coming. First we saw consumer spending absolutely wreck big name companies bottom lines. But this is very likely to start spreading as more startups that depend on other startups revenue streams start to miss their targets.

This current generation of founders might be clueless about recession and major downturns, but the people in charge at places like Sequoia sure as hell aren't.

I understand the vision, but argue it hasn't lived up to it.

Anyone can walk into dozens of places in my city to buy, sell, exchange gold. There are many reputable online services for this as well. In reality it's really very easy to exchange. It's also way easier to deal with gold coins, etc Tham the whole crypto exchange/wallet/physical backup thing. People always mention theft, anyone who has any amount of gold should have it insured as part of their home/renter insurance, or can store it professionally with the same insurance guarantees. There isn't really a problem that needs solving here.

It's hard to think about it protecting from inflation while it's so volatile. 5-10% inflation seems small when the market fluctuates +/- 25% regularly.

I think crypto will end up going down in history as one of those Enron, Theranos, Segway, DIA automated baggage system, Lularoe things in 10 years. If it were this amazing world changing idea we'd all already be using it. Think about Facebook, Google, Netflix, these all became daily parts of most of our lives within a year or two. We've had crypto for a while now and I argue that the average person doesn't use it much, interact with it much, other than an investment vehicle.

I think the crypto industry needs to take a hard look on the value prop they originally made, if they're meeting it, and what value, if any, they're providing instead. Does crypto work without continued investment? Does it add value and hold water on its own or does it rely on a steady stream of new investors putting more money in? Does it create value?

There were also very few COVID lockdowns in China in 2021, most were in early 2020 and then some major ones occurred in 2022 but those, like Ukraine, were well after inflation started to rise in USA and Europe. Not to say the early 2020 China lockdowns could not have caused later inflation, but is that what you are claiming?

Me thinks you don't know how venture capital works?