51–60 of 774 posts
I'm expecting brutal, decimating, RIF across the industry at the end of Q2.
And all it took was the Federal Reserve raising the federal funds rate by less than 100 bps after a decade and a half of rock bottom rates. I have nothing more to add. I'm going to go outside and breathe some fresh air.
A rate hike that that was widely telegraphed and has been anticipated for years, to boot!
I'd love to get a flash poll of the finance industry and see how much people believe 1-8% interest rates are possible over the next 5 years. I bet a lot in the market think 3% interest rates are just not gonna happen.
People said this was the "best time ever to get funding" for a startup. I disagree. In my view, it was the best time ever if you played a particular game and had the right connections. I pitched an idea to a VC, which I had a prototype for, looking for $100k. He liked it but wouldn't fund because I didn't have a solid business plan. Fair enough, I need to find a business partner. But then he told me something about h…
> Meanwhile he had his hands in various bullshit crypto (not hating on crypto, just the projects) defi startups. Your confusion is assuming that "bullshit" means "unprofitable". Plenty of projects turn profit for their owners.
Some of the strongest tech companies were built during a downturn (PayPal if I remember correctly). It's a great time to build, but probably not the best time for fundraising.
Getting funding isn't a lottery, in which everyone's odds are the same. The funding you receive and the terms of that funding are related to the current market and how good your business/idea is.
When times are tough, VCs are still investing, but they're only investing in better ideas, more likely successes. Why take a chance on your long shot when a government bond is a sure thing at a reasonable percentage?
We should expect that those companies that got funding during a downtime are better companies based on the fact that they got funding at all.
I remember thinking in ~2015 going to conferences that this shit was never going to last. Then around 2018 driving (sitting) on 101 listening to advertisements for "C3 IoT AI" on NPR thinking, could a company jam more meaningless buzzwords into a single company name? For shits, looked up their stock just and its down 85%[1] since it's IPO. ofc.
To anyone who hasn't lived through a .com explosion, hold on to your butts.
(also consider moving to cash and $SARK $VIX)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Intel’s P/E is 7 right now. So, the other ratios do look inflated.
That’s because the market calculates a high probability of an Intel implosion
I would be shocked if we had an intel “implosion” they have a sustainable and successful business model and there’s no world where we need fewer processors.
There were signs of rate hike in 2019 but COVID forced Fed to create trillions of $$. Which only added fuel to the fire; equities, housing, crypto saw unbelievable growth.
However the signs of inflation were clear in early-mid 2021 they were hoping it to be transitory. But when the inflation data came in late 2021 it turned out to be multi-decade high leaving Fed with no choice but to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade.
Which brings us back to growth companies. As Uber's CEO candidly stated "Channeling Jerry Maguire, we need to show them the money". 2020s will be all about cash flow and efficiency.
On the other hand expect to see cool innovations as it requires genuine scarcity to look for out of the box solutions. While Amazon's stock soared in 2010s their core tech was being built in 2000s while they were relentlessly driving for efficiency.
Anyway, I accepted an offer from a hedge fund, comparatively similar, but all cash.
Now I feel that I am glad I accepted the hedge fund offer.
I don't have a property, not looking to get one due to HCOL high property prices and high interest rate.
My assets are mostly crypto and total stock market index. I think I'm good with my crypto investment for now (already filled my goals) so I am thinking to get more stocks.
As someone with just cash compensation, what can I do in this downturn to make a lot of money in the stock market? Maybe I just stick with the old boring Apple.
People said this was the "best time ever to get funding" for a startup. I disagree. In my view, it was the best time ever if you played a particular game and had the right connections. I pitched an idea to a VC, which I had a prototype for, looking for $100k. He liked it but wouldn't fund because I didn't have a solid business plan. Fair enough, I need to find a business partner. But then he told me something about h…