Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

undrr.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 255 posts

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#51

Post by lm28469 »

verisimi wrote: post #32
lm28469 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Did you know that electric cars were very popular 100 years ago - but because of the oil industry + government, they were quashed? Er this is extremely simplistic. Electricity wasn't as common as now and battery tech was extremely shitty (requiring maintenance every few days, handling acids, &c.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicl... "In 1828, the Hungarian priest and physicist Ányos Jedlik invented an early type of electric motor, and created a small model car powered by his new motor." 1828!! "Rechargeable batteries that provided a viable means for storing electricity on board a vehicle did not come into being until 1859, with the invention of the lead–acid battery by French physic…

> It was viable technology!

Both were viable, one was much more easily developed. We can talk viability all day long, sadly it's history and there isn't much to discuss.

Solar panels are also viable and cheap right now, yet we don't use them much. Something existing and working doesn't mean it scales as easily as the alternatives.

If electricity storage is still a problem in 2022 you can imagine that it would be extremely hard in 1922. You can store gas in a bucket if needs be

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#52

Post by Chris2048 »

refurb wrote: post #35
blueflow wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> let local people decide for themselves what they want to do - use leaded petrol - build fridges using HCFCs - burn trash This stuff had to be forbidden by the government to make it stop. The UN might be some corrupt stuff, but the point of reducing government at all is nonsense. People on their own won't stop doing harmful things if they dont suffer the consequences themself.

So if let's say, Myanmar doesn't stop using CFCs. What's your solution? Send in some Blue Helmets to enforce global law? And what if they start shooting back? You want to send your son or daughter there? And not to mention the politics of rich countries sending soldiers into poor countries to enforce rules. Colonialism 2.0. "It's the developed world's obligations to drag the uncivilized nations into the the 21st cent…

> Sounds familiar

Yeah, it sounds like the faulty science & religious justifications of Colonialism - but only matters if the current science is also faulty.

Is modern climate the same as Colonial race science? Or do we only act on what things superficially appear to be / sound like?

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#53

Post by ivan_gammel »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #22

> broken perception of risk based on “optimism, underestimation and invincibility" How about artificially low interest rates? An interest rate is exactly the coordination between risk and time, with a low interest rate you're subsidizing stupidity and wastefulness, and with its concommittant inflation you're forcing people into making those investments to stay afloat. Maybe if we weren't goosing the interest rate low…

Let's say you have two possible projects: X is investment in growth, which will result in increase of your revenue in the short term, and Y is investment in reduction of risks which will increase the value of your assets in the long term. If interest rates are low, borrowing money for Y or for both projects becomes more tangible option. If interest rates are high and you are an optimist, you will choose to borrow money for X. Based on this logic, higher interest rates would expose the optimism of the investors better. Whether there is a causal link between them or not, that is an open question.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#54

Post by Ambolia »

jolux wrote: post #37
throwawaymaths wrote: post #22

> broken perception of risk based on “optimism, underestimation and invincibility" How about artificially low interest rates? An interest rate is exactly the coordination between risk and time, with a low interest rate you're subsidizing stupidity and wastefulness, and with its concommittant inflation you're forcing people into making those investments to stay afloat. Maybe if we weren't goosing the interest rate low…

The problem is that economic growth is extremely important to developing economies as well. It’s one thing to say we should limit growth, or deprioritize it, or whatever, but in practice this means forcing poor countries to accept lower standards of living. That’s the real trade-off here.

Depends what "poverty" means. A lot of poor people were subsistance farmers, able to hold property and carve a space for themselves and their families in the world. That's something that will be out of reach for many "rich" people in the upcoming decades.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#55

Post by refurb »

Chris2048 wrote: post #52
refurb wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if let's say, Myanmar doesn't stop using CFCs. What's your solution? Send in some Blue Helmets to enforce global law? And what if they start shooting back? You want to send your son or daughter there? And not to mention the politics of rich countries sending soldiers into poor countries to enforce rules. Colonialism 2.0. "It's the developed world's obligations to drag the uncivilized nations into the the 21st cent…

> Sounds familiar Yeah, it sounds like the faulty science & religious justifications of Colonialism - but only matters if the current science is also faulty. Is modern climate the same as Colonial race science? Or do we only act on what things superficially appear to be / sound like?

Residential schools in Canada were an effort to make sure the youth were formally educated as per Western standards (versus not even knowing how to read or write). That's not a faulty assumption, but it was terrible to use violence to force it on people using who never asked for it.

But it is pretty amazing how easily we can convince ourselves the oppression of others is for their own good, huh?

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#56

Post by nonrandomstring »

lm28469 wrote: post #50
nonrandomstring wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > Did you know that electric cars were very popular 100 years ago - but because of the oil industry + government, they were quashed? > Electricity wasn't as common as now and battery tech was extremely shitty (requiring maintenance every few days, handling acids, &c.) When automobiles first appeared, gasoline was not as common as now and internal combustion technology was primitive, requiring almost constant mainte…

> When automobiles first appeared, gasoline was not as common as now and internal combustion technology was primitive, requiring almost constant maintenance, handling flammable liquids etc. Yeah and one ended up easier to develop than the other. Even when we started producing proper batteries they were not good enough for cars (80s, 90s, 2000s), it took a few decade to get good engines, it took a century for proper b…

> one ended up easier to develop than the other.

Because many hundreds of millions in research money went into doing so. Science and technology are not blind pursuits whereby we stumble across answers handed down by the gods. We progress according to our motivations.

This is the difference between so-called "technological determinism" which is an ignorant quasi-religious shrugging abdication of reason, and "science as agency", which is instrumental reason. It has it's down-sides, but the latter is infinitely preferable to the former, which, perhaps to labour the car-analogy painfully, is like taking your hands off the steering wheel.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#57

Post by blfr »

I think this is completely backwards. We are not risking enough and the progress has stalled as a result.

During the 1880-1950 we were causing massive disasters all around, literally nuking cities. But that period is also where we came up with virtually all of technology that makes the modern world: cars, planes, radio, computers, nuclear power, jet propulsion.

Since then (also ~70 years) we have maintained a little momentum here and there. Jet propulsion gave us space travel and satellites, we linked computer into networks, put them on the radio. Otherwise, it has been a time of stagnation.

This managerial approach to risk management is in no small part to blame in my opinion. We should be bolder. This may be worse for individual people affected but better for humanity in general as it gives us tools to address truly existential risks (like a stray asteroid).

We can't really make it up to the people affected in another managerial/coasian bargain. So in return, as healthy cultures did throughout the ages, we give our heroes glory.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#58

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

verisimi wrote: post #3

Coming from the UN, we already know what the answer will be. More governance, more/better management of risk by the UN that is then delegated to its administrative regions (the US, EU, etc). This is because as long as we are talking about risk, this plays into the hands of a global governance structure. All risks should be planned for and managed - I mean the covid response was fantastic, right? What was wrong was no…

Assuming a democratically elected government, isn't "less government" a way to take away power from voters to make decisions and manage commonly held resources?

Why is that a good thing? Who gets the power when voters lose it? Who gets to say what happens, when we can't all decide together?

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#59

Post by I_DRINK_KOOLAID »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #53
throwawaymaths wrote: post #22

> broken perception of risk based on “optimism, underestimation and invincibility" How about artificially low interest rates? An interest rate is exactly the coordination between risk and time, with a low interest rate you're subsidizing stupidity and wastefulness, and with its concommittant inflation you're forcing people into making those investments to stay afloat. Maybe if we weren't goosing the interest rate low…

Let's say you have two possible projects: X is investment in growth, which will result in increase of your revenue in the short term, and Y is investment in reduction of risks which will increase the value of your assets in the long term. If interest rates are low, borrowing money for Y or for both projects becomes more tangible option. If interest rates are high and you are an optimist, you will choose to borrow mon…

No post body was provided.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#60

Post by ivan_gammel »

blfr wrote: post #57

I think this is completely backwards. We are not risking enough and the progress has stalled as a result. During the 1880-1950 we were causing massive disasters all around, literally nuking cities. But that period is also where we came up with virtually all of technology that makes the modern world: cars, planes, radio, computers, nuclear power, jet propulsion. Since then (also ~70 years) we have maintained a little…

I guess you missed the moment between 1950-2020s when our civilization transitioned from industrial to information society thanks to massive progress in IT. Super-optimistic approach to software design in that period of time has led us to the destructive mess of the social networks, cyberwarfare and buggy MCAS in Boeing 737 Max.

EDIT: I also forgot to mention globalization, where optimism resulted in the supply chain crisis of 2020-2021 and inability of the West to impose full oil and gas embargo on Russia.

Post reply on HN