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Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

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Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#51

Post by no_butterscotch »

wintermutestwin wrote: post #42

The cost to code and market a Twitter clone would be a tiny fraction of $45b. If the existing Twitter is so bad that Elon needs to buy it and save it, then the value of the userbase is low - particulary considering that the time cost for a user to switch is much lower than say a Myspace to FB shift. I am assuming that Elon is not this much of a dumbass - what am I missing here?

> The cost to code and market a Twitter clone would be a tiny fraction of $45b.

No it wouldn't. Literally tons of people would do it and plenty of competitors have tried or are trying.

Per the value of the userbase and the cost of switching: well look at some of the competitors I mentioned, the ones Joe Rogan and others flock too when they get a temporary Twitter ban, do they not return immediately after their ban is lifted?

The cost of code and marketing can't beat Twitter's network effect. Getting Elon, Joe, and plenty of other personalities to move also is no guarantee that even a slight portion of the userbase switches.

Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#52

Post by CamperBob2 »

TheRealDunkirk wrote: post #34
SpikeDad wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Accomplished? He's got money and hired some smart people. And tech media is more than happy to ignore all the stupid shit he's done and tried.

This smells like the virulent detraction aimed at Trump, which a very large number of people tried to promulgate on social media. Sure, you can quote a bunch of subjective measures and conclude that he’s “stupid,” but he’s successful by every common understanding of the word. Trying to take a dump on him like this just comes off as jealousy.

Trump's companies failed at selling steaks, booze, and gambling to Americans. (He also failed at launching a coup d'etat, but at least he succeeded at avoiding punishment for it.)

Musk's companies have already revolutionized at least two hard-to-crack industries, aerospace and automotive, and are attempting more.

Your exercise in false equivalence is, well, an exercise in false equivalence.

Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#53

Post by matthewdgreen »

gamblor956 wrote: post #50
samuelstros wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Internal chat between Musk and the Saudi investors just popped up on my twitter feed https://twitter.com/TechEmails/status/1518353213283442688 Doesn't seem like the funding secured thing was an outright lie.

Nowhere in the emails do the Saudi investors pledge funding. At best, they say they might be interested in investing. Therefore, "funding secured " was absolutely an outright lie, unless words don't have meaning anymore.

It’s much worse than that. I had previously assumed Musk knew what he was doing and was fooling around on Twitter in an effort to (unethically) crush short sellers. Now it appears like he’s an utterly inept businessman who took the first verbal sign of interest, rushed it to Twitter as though the deal was complete, and then blew up the deal in a hissy fit.

I still think what he’s done at SpaceX and Tesla is admirable, but after reading those emails I’m definitely a few percent less confident that there will still be a Tesla to service my Model 3 in the future.

Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#54

Post by gfodor »

wintermutestwin wrote: post #42

The cost to code and market a Twitter clone would be a tiny fraction of $45b. If the existing Twitter is so bad that Elon needs to buy it and save it, then the value of the userbase is low - particulary considering that the time cost for a user to switch is much lower than say a Myspace to FB shift. I am assuming that Elon is not this much of a dumbass - what am I missing here?

Twitter's userbase is immensely valuable, but the company's execution has both been slow to unlock its full potential and also is on a fairly clear trajectory of eroding the window of permissible speech on the platform which presents grave risks to society at large. For an activist investor of the right type, the former checks the box of financial opportunity, and the latter checks the box of impact opportunity.

Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#55

Post by askonomm »

gamblor956 wrote: post #46
sshine wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric sports cars Self-landing rockets Underground tunnel systems Brain-computer interfaces OpenAI leading AI research PayPal Accomplished? Meh!

All of those things existed before Musk. Is he retroactively giving himself credit for those things like he did with Tesla? EVs are over a century old. SpaceX was recreating NASA research. Subways have been a thing for over a century; literally millions of people use them every day. Paypal's tech stack used Thiel's startup's technology; they jettisoned everything from Musk's stack and moreover fired him for gross inc…

Oh man, if one can only be considered accomplished when inventing completely new things I will never amount to anything :(

Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#56

Post by wellthatsawrap »

andersco wrote: post #45
askafriend wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems a little dramatic to delete your account, don't you think?

It really depends on if he follows through on what he is proposing, which seems to be to allow for disinformation and hate speech. If that turns out to not be the case, then I might reconsider.

Yes. The current information coming from Twatter is is perfectly accurate.

Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#57

Post by mzs »

systemvoltage wrote: post #4

I guess HN was wrong (top comments) that Musk couldn't possibly have a way to finance his deal. And here we are.

Looks like the difference could be structured in a stock swap.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/elon-musk-holding-compan...

Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#58

Post by mlindner »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #8
greatpostman wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really hard to imagine the richest and most accomplished dude on the planet not being able to secure funding. Somehow people still think he’s just a showman. At some point in time, accomplishments can’t be explained away

He’s not just a showman, but he is a showman. And it’s not like you have to dig back into ancient history to find instances where he invented a bid like this, he basically made up a bid for Tesla a few years ago and lied about having secured financing.

He's never been a showman. It's a ridiculous internet myth that thinks that he is. Anyone who says he's a showman really has no understanding of the guy and hasn't looked at what he's said outside of the stuff he's put on twitter. Listen to his speeches, and not the one where it's some bland interviewer that constantly interrupts him.

Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#59

Post by andersco »

influx wrote: post #36
andersco wrote: post #33

If Musk acquires Twitter, I will likely be deleting my account. Am I the only one? Would his acquisition spell the beginning of the end for Twitter?

Yes, you are the only one.

I can see the headline now: “The one lone user who deleted his Twitter account after Elon Musk’s acquisition”

Re: Twitter re-examines Elon Musk’s bid, may be more receptive to a deal

#60

Post by mattcwilson »

gamblor956 wrote: post #46
sshine wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric sports cars Self-landing rockets Underground tunnel systems Brain-computer interfaces OpenAI leading AI research PayPal Accomplished? Meh!

All of those things existed before Musk. Is he retroactively giving himself credit for those things like he did with Tesla? EVs are over a century old. SpaceX was recreating NASA research. Subways have been a thing for over a century; literally millions of people use them every day. Paypal's tech stack used Thiel's startup's technology; they jettisoned everything from Musk's stack and moreover fired him for gross inc…

I’m curious if there is anything that, if shown to be true, you would acknowledge as evidence of his accomplishment?
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