Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

kcet.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 81 posts

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#51

Post by kortilla »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #35
usrn wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>replace all ICE with EV I'm honestly not convinced this will happen. I think the ratio will get a lot more even but I highly doubt ICE will be replaced. Especially as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the economic viability of reducing it back into hydrocarbons increases. Already it's much easier to grow microalgae than it was during the first government experiments in the 60s. As these technologies improv…

> highly doubt ICE will be replaced I think it will. For cars and trucks, at least. There is a massive recurring cost to maintaining the refining and distribution infrastructure for gasoline, to say nothing of developing, building and selling a new vehicle. All of these systems have been built for scale. When demand dips below the level to maintain them, they become obsolete. At that point, one must build new infrast…

> I’m expecting within ten years to see gas stations closures stranding isolated communities, with the phenomenon becoming commonplace by 2040.

Gas stations make most of their money as convenience stores, often selling gas at very narrow margins.

Additionally, the average age of the cars on the road is >10 years. The sales today are not supportive for your thesis unless the price of gas continues higher.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#52

Post by noduerme »

pram wrote: post #22
dave333 wrote: post #21

Lithium hydroxide sales could fund restoration of the Salton Sea using the "perimeter lake" concept or one of the other plans for a partial freshwater lake that doesn't require a large diversion of fresh water from the Colorado. Center would be dry playa with some irrigated vegetation or dry salt crust to prevent dust problems, maybe even golf course(s). Southern end of the lake would have brine habitat mostly for bi…

Not really the topic but the area around the Salton Sea is one of the wildest things I’ve ever seen. It literally looks like an apocalyptic wasteland. There’s ruined, half buried buildings near the shores. Tons of abandoned structures. Also the air was so acrid it was burning my eyes and nose the entire time. Absolutely surreal. Wouldn’t be out of place in a Fallout game.

The smell is horrendous. And the shoreline is made of fish bones. The Salton Sea was an ecological disaster when it was accidentally created... the only thing that might make it worse now is if it dries out and the salt blows off.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#53

Post by coward123 »

usrn wrote: post #29
ggm wrote: post #20

The last 5 to 10 years has had a succession of doom-sayers riding the Paul Ehrlich line to "we will run out" -And as Julian Simons bet [0] showed, it may be true but it's based on a false premise of supply chain logistics, mining and planning. In absolute terms yes, there is a finite amount of lithium in the crust. Transmutation aside, What we see in real life is unequal distribution and then bad modelling on assumpt…

>replace all ICE with EV I'm honestly not convinced this will happen. I think the ratio will get a lot more even but I highly doubt ICE will be replaced. Especially as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the economic viability of reducing it back into hydrocarbons increases. Already it's much easier to grow microalgae than it was during the first government experiments in the 60s. As these technologies improv…

Keep in mind there are already states like Washington, which has mandated no new licenses for non-EV personal vehicles after 2030. This isn't to say that EV will completely replace ICE in that timeline (or even on a multi-decade timeline), especially for commercial and specialized industrial vehicles, but for Jane and John Q. Taxpayer, it certainly feels like the end of ICE vehicles as daily transportation is drawing to a foreseeable conclusion.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#54

Post by nicoburns »

kortilla wrote: post #51
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> highly doubt ICE will be replaced I think it will. For cars and trucks, at least. There is a massive recurring cost to maintaining the refining and distribution infrastructure for gasoline, to say nothing of developing, building and selling a new vehicle. All of these systems have been built for scale. When demand dips below the level to maintain them, they become obsolete. At that point, one must build new infrast…

> I’m expecting within ten years to see gas stations closures stranding isolated communities, with the phenomenon becoming commonplace by 2040. Gas stations make most of their money as convenience stores, often selling gas at very narrow margins. Additionally, the average age of the cars on the road is >10 years. The sales today are not supportive for your thesis unless the price of gas continues higher.

> Gas stations make most of their money as convenience stores, often selling gas at very narrow margins.

Right, which they increasingly won’t be able to do as demand for gas drops. The timeline might be longer than above, and it’ll be stretched out by the fact that so much infrastructure has already been built, but I think it will happen eventually.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#55

Post by idoh »

coward123 wrote: post #53
usrn wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>replace all ICE with EV I'm honestly not convinced this will happen. I think the ratio will get a lot more even but I highly doubt ICE will be replaced. Especially as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the economic viability of reducing it back into hydrocarbons increases. Already it's much easier to grow microalgae than it was during the first government experiments in the 60s. As these technologies improv…

Keep in mind there are already states like Washington, which has mandated no new licenses for non-EV personal vehicles after 2030. This isn't to say that EV will completely replace ICE in that timeline (or even on a multi-decade timeline), especially for commercial and specialized industrial vehicles, but for Jane and John Q. Taxpayer, it certainly feels like the end of ICE vehicles as daily transportation is drawing…

I'm willing to bet that 2030 is too soon and they'll kick out the deadline as it approaches and turns out to be impossible to meet. It's one thing to mandate a thing to happen, it's another when it collides with reality.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#56

Post by idoh »

ggm wrote: post #44
themitigating wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The existing infrastructure of electricity, excluding building charging stations and the possibility of transmission upgrades, is why I believe in EVs instead of Hydrogen. Wouldn't the cost of building a new Hydrogen setup equivalent to gasoline be insane? You can't retrofit gas stations that easily since the tanks weren't meant to hold a gas. I suppose they could add Hydrogen storage to existing gas stations but you…

Pure H2 is a nightmare. Hydrogen up converted to Ammonia is much easier to handle, comparable to LNG for the cost of management. For volume shipment between economies, Ammonia is the way to go.

Can cars burn ammonia in the same way as hydrogen? Or are you saying that you convert to ammonia for shipping, then reconvert back to hydrogen just before it gets into the car?

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#57

Post by mburee »

froh wrote: post #48
themitigating wrote: post #40

All this talk about Lithium feels like it's describing a new destructive force in the environment but won't this replace/reduce oil extraction? The Exxon Valdez, Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and I'm sure many other smaller disasters happened due to oil. I would even add in both gulf wars which costs massive amounts of money, resources, and lives wouldn't have happened if the US didn't have a vested interest in oil. A…

Please add the Ukraine war, Georgia (the country) and even Afghanistan to the list of oil/gas drilling or pipelining related. Ukraine: https://www.trade.gov/energy-resource-guide-ukraine-oil-and-... Georgia: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-gr... Afghanistan (more disputed though) https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/pipeline-politics...

Didn't Ukraine regularly steal from Russian pipelines?

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#58

Post by ggm »

idoh wrote: post #56
ggm wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pure H2 is a nightmare. Hydrogen up converted to Ammonia is much easier to handle, comparable to LNG for the cost of management. For volume shipment between economies, Ammonia is the way to go.

Can cars burn ammonia in the same way as hydrogen? Or are you saying that you convert to ammonia for shipping, then reconvert back to hydrogen just before it gets into the car?

You can run combustion engines on ammonia but I believe the most likely scenario is catalytic conversion back to H2 at high efficiency and use as hydrogen, supplementary to LNG or directly. It doesn't target cars very well at present.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#59

Post by mullingitover »

throwaway1777 wrote: post #43
mullingitover wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus, for all the noise farmers make, in California agriculture's contribution to the state GDP is fairly trivial, in the low single digits. At the scale this lithium mining operation could work, I imagine they would massively outbid the farmers for the water. Indeed, if we gave up on farming in the area, we could cut an aqueduct from the Sea of Cortez and restore the Salton Sea to a thriving inland riviera. The real…

It may be a small portion of gdp but we need to eat so it’s important…

California agriculture doesn't produce a lot of important dietary staples, and the ones it does can pretty easily be grown in places that don't suffer from frequent droughts.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#60

Post by _ph_ »

kortilla wrote: post #51
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> highly doubt ICE will be replaced I think it will. For cars and trucks, at least. There is a massive recurring cost to maintaining the refining and distribution infrastructure for gasoline, to say nothing of developing, building and selling a new vehicle. All of these systems have been built for scale. When demand dips below the level to maintain them, they become obsolete. At that point, one must build new infrast…

> I’m expecting within ten years to see gas stations closures stranding isolated communities, with the phenomenon becoming commonplace by 2040. Gas stations make most of their money as convenience stores, often selling gas at very narrow margins. Additionally, the average age of the cars on the road is >10 years. The sales today are not supportive for your thesis unless the price of gas continues higher.

The gas stations are not going away. As you say, gas was only part of what they sell. But they will offer charging and the other mobility services required, as coffee and food for the travelers. Look to Norway, where the first gas stations were already converted. At some point, maintenance costs don't justify selling gas any more.
Post reply on HN