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Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

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Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#51
It's called phased obsolescence.

It is a terrible time to find a replacement for a lost ipod. I've been waiting until today's Apple event before getting anything. I was ready to be pleasantly surprised.

Turns out Apple has just enough market share and momentum to waive their hands around for renewed sales. Why break ground when you can still make great profits off the old stuff?

Nano is a software update. Touch has a new color (wowsy!). Phone has speaking app installed, a slightly faster chip. It is new technology at the slowest drip possible. Give me a small ipod with tons of storage. Easy enough, right? Look at the cost of memory these days. You can buy a 32GB SD card for $40. But Apple won't do that. The whole iCloud business looms. The iCloud is just a way to capture and sell you data. So they provide iTunes, integration with everything, then reel in the fishes. They haven't updated the capacity of any of their devices for four years. The ipod nano no longer has a camera, no longer shows videos, has a smaller screen than ever before, and the maximum capacity remains 16GB. But they come in a dazzling array of colors; come and get them while they last!!!

Should I wait another 6 months? 12 months?

I've thought about getting one of the old nanos, but I'm learning something about the mac I use for work. The computer itself is awesome, even though it is about 7 years old. It is actually faster and more stable than the 64-bit PC I got a few months ago. The thing is, fewer and fewer programs work on it. Google Earth was automatically updated and no longer works. A bunch of other programs are the same. This old architecture (PowerPC) doesn't support any new Adobe products or really any thing else that is new. Even browsers are starting to act weird. But it isn't the hardware, its great. It is that new software doesn't communicate with it anymore.

So, I suspect the same will be true with these mac devices. Software will be designed specifically for new devices. So on older devices, either you won't be able to get the newest software or software will be automatically updated and cease to work. For instance, the click wheel now only exists on the ipod classic. Once the classic is discontinued, you can bet that any ipod with a click wheel will start having problems with any new OS. And they update the OS at least once a year. So you can't go back, even if the device remains superior.

Welcome to Apple's vision of the future, the - phase it out, throw it away, buy it new - society.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#52
post #8
post #4

One of these days I really must create a bunch of alter egos and make them predict different things. Then I can style the remaining ego that predicted the right thing into a prophet and make big money.

Too much hassle. Start with one persona and just keep revising estimates as word comes out without mentioning it. Then obfuscate by "calling out" other experts. Nobody can be arsed to click the link you provide and wade through commentary to refute you anyway. Just remember to answer any question with "It's what I've been saying all along..." and use short, choppy sentences.

IMHO, the most shameless was Jonathan Geller at BGR, who not only hyped the supposedly impending iPhone 5 to death, he released a story on Monday pushing a rumor that Sprint was getting an exclusive 4G iPhone 5.

Yesterday, his iPhone 4S story offered this astonishing course reversal:

"While confusion was sprinkled throughout the industry on exactly what Apple would announce, most seemed to agree that the iPhone 4S would be the smartphone that Apple ultimately would unveil."

http://www.bgr.com/2011/10/04/apple-iphone-4s-unveiled/

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#53
post #37
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features. Hell, the original iPhone was dropped en masse by pretty much everyone in favor of the 3G when it was released after just a year. That sounds more like an excuse than a "real reason" honestly. The real reason, of course, is that Apple didn't have anything revolutionary to ship (other than a…

"That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features." Not so, the pattern of introducing an entirely new model only every second year and a performance boost of the existing model in between is one that Apple has followed since the iPhone 3G: iPhone 3G -> iPhone 3GS -> iPhone 4 -> iPhone 4S For that reason I was not expecting an iPhone 5 and…

I don't understand why people are so upset that it wasn't changed.

IMHO the iPhone 4 is already fast enough. It didn't need a new system board, it just needed a bigger screen, and they needed to get rid of that Radio Shack-style square enclosure.

This release was an exercise in fixing things that weren't broken while giving the competition a break.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#54
post #46
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with everything the article says. IMHO, the biggest announcement from yesterday is the $99 iPhone4. I think consumers when given the choice between a cheaper Android (not the flagship ones at $200+) handsets or an iPhone4 will pick the iPhone4.

On a two-year contract, the difference between a $199 iPhone and a $99 iPhone is, what, five percent?

Most people don't think like that (last I read the average American is $8k+ in CC debt). Also, see how many people are using the free phone that comes with their contract.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#55

It's called phased obsolescence. It is a terrible time to find a replacement for a lost ipod. I've been waiting until today's Apple event before getting anything. I was ready to be pleasantly surprised. Turns out Apple has just enough market share and momentum to waive their hands around for renewed sales. Why break ground when you can still make great profits off the old stuff? Nano is a software update. Touch has a…

Apple's vision of the future?

Lots of room for different opinions on the life cycle of electronics but:

1) What you are complaining about is a decades old, industry wide phenomena and not something vaguely unique about Apple.

2) Apple products tend to retain functionality and re-sale value much longer than their competitors.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#56
post #40
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of these rumors are started by hedge funds with short positions in Apple. 1) Spread rumors about a product 2) Watch stock price go up 3) Wait for the actual product announcement 4) Short sale 5) Profit$$$ it happens everyday.

Any sources for this?

I don't know about the spreading of rumours, but alot of funds short apple on the day of product announcements as their stock almost always goes down during the announcements.

It's pretty much free money.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#57

It's called phased obsolescence. It is a terrible time to find a replacement for a lost ipod. I've been waiting until today's Apple event before getting anything. I was ready to be pleasantly surprised. Turns out Apple has just enough market share and momentum to waive their hands around for renewed sales. Why break ground when you can still make great profits off the old stuff? Nano is a software update. Touch has a…

Apple's plan is to obsolete the current iPods by continuing to sell them.

What?!

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#58

Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product. 1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes. 2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case design…

(Random aside: I agree with all your arguments against the retina iPad display.

That said, I wrote the iOS Artwork Tool, which reads and writes the .artwork files found in iOS SDKs. Last night I updated the tool with iOS5 support and to my surprise discovered new iPad-specific @2x graphics. To be clear, the iPad @2x graphics appear to be woefully incomplete... but it's clear that someone over there is working on this.

Timeframes? I'll leave that to the rumor mill. Will it eventually happen? I'll venture a cautious yes.)

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#59
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features." Not so, the pattern of introducing an entirely new model only every second year and a performance boost of the existing model in between is one that Apple has followed since the iPhone 3G: iPhone 3G -> iPhone 3GS -> iPhone 4 -> iPhone 4S For that reason I was not expecting an iPhone 5 and…

I don't understand why people are so upset that it wasn't changed. IMHO the iPhone 4 is already fast enough. It didn't need a new system board, it just needed a bigger screen, and they needed to get rid of that Radio Shack-style square enclosure. This release was an exercise in fixing things that weren't broken while giving the competition a break.

Also, I suspect it was about dropping the price to $99 while still preserving the enthusiast market who will continue to buy the $299 devices on sheer inertia. The former part of that decision is good. The latter is IMHO a very dangerous platform to base your business on (i.e. "dumb users will continue to pay more for our products"). Apple tried that in the 90's. It worked... poorly.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know, I honestly don't know why people are saying that they're disappointed. For me, this is the first iPhone since the original that gave me a real 'Wow, the future has just arrived' moment. For the original phone it was the Minority Report UI. This time around it's the Star Trek computer that talks to you. When Apple start running TV ads showing off Siri, the average consumer is going to love it.

How many people ever tried using the Voice Control in the iPhone 4? Siri is one of those features (awesome technological achievement notwithstanding) that's great to demo but largely irrelevant (or even unknown) to most users. It's this generation's Carousel view.

- Voice Over often just outright failed. The accuracy for speech interpretation was good, but not great.

- The tasks that it could actually do were simplistic (pause! play! call Bob! next track!) and often it was more work to turn on Voice Over and talk, and easier to just touch the device and be done with it.

- Voice Over had a very limited verb database that you had to learn. It wasn't so much natural language recognition as simply using voice to input a (very) limited set of commands.

Siri is (ostensibly) not subject to any of the above limitations, so if it works as advertised it really will be completely different from Voice Over.

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