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A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

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Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#51
post #49
post #5

"Contextual adaptation" is what they want, but that doesn't mean it's coming in the near future. However, this does mean that funding for research on it will be available. As I've said for years, the big lack in AI is in the "common sense" and unstructured manipulation area. Nobody can build something with squirrel levels of manipulation and agility, even in simulation. Robot manipulation in unstructured situations i…

The low-level thing that isn't understood is that intelligence is not progressive. You can not build up to it. Sure, you can forever continue to build better and better approximations of certain aspects of intelligence and pretend you're making progress, but you are not. Of course, there is great utilitarian value in those approximations, so we MUST continue to do this. Still, my position is that NO progress has ever…

> I maintain that you CAN NOT build intelligence. You can only TAP INTO it.

I wouldn't go exactly this far, but I would say that whatever process might exist to create artificial intelligence, it might be closer to gardening than to engineering.

My vague feeling is that there might be some sort of (non-supernatural) "mysterious" component to intelligence that we won't be able to engineer and that might just emerge under the right circumstances.

In that case we would just have to "grow" AI, without being completely sure that our effort will work.

Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#52
post #49
post #5

"Contextual adaptation" is what they want, but that doesn't mean it's coming in the near future. However, this does mean that funding for research on it will be available. As I've said for years, the big lack in AI is in the "common sense" and unstructured manipulation area. Nobody can build something with squirrel levels of manipulation and agility, even in simulation. Robot manipulation in unstructured situations i…

The low-level thing that isn't understood is that intelligence is not progressive. You can not build up to it. Sure, you can forever continue to build better and better approximations of certain aspects of intelligence and pretend you're making progress, but you are not. Of course, there is great utilitarian value in those approximations, so we MUST continue to do this. Still, my position is that NO progress has ever…

I'm sure people said the same thing about motive power before the steam engine. You cannot build it, you can only tap into it.

Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#53
post #5

"Contextual adaptation" is what they want, but that doesn't mean it's coming in the near future. However, this does mean that funding for research on it will be available. As I've said for years, the big lack in AI is in the "common sense" and unstructured manipulation area. Nobody can build something with squirrel levels of manipulation and agility, even in simulation. Robot manipulation in unstructured situations i…

> Nobody can build something with squirrel levels of manipulation and agility, even in simulation.

While not squirrel level, this impressed the heck out of me: https://ashish-kmr.github.io/rma-legged-robots/

Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#54
post #5

"Contextual adaptation" is what they want, but that doesn't mean it's coming in the near future. However, this does mean that funding for research on it will be available. As I've said for years, the big lack in AI is in the "common sense" and unstructured manipulation area. Nobody can build something with squirrel levels of manipulation and agility, even in simulation. Robot manipulation in unstructured situations i…

"Squirrel level of manipulation" seems more a problem of building tiny physical robots and giving them appropriate interfaces for AI to control, which is an unreasonably difficult benchmark.

A reasonable first step would be autonomous small cheap drones, but I can't say what their missions would be. AlphaStar and Openai Five are mentioned elsewhere here, and these demonstrate that the problem isn't unapproachable.

There probably isn't enough confidence yet to arm autonomous drones, or there isn't a meaningful tactical purpose.

Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#55
post #42

BTW, the Tay example in the slides is bogus. Zero AI involved. You should ask what's cut off when you see a tweet reply like that. This is what's cut off: https://twitter.com/daviottenheimer/status/71288991553350041... Tay had a 'repeat after me' feature (an ancient feature of any IRC chatbot to just echo or print a given string). That's all this is. A troll account issued the command 'Repeat after me' and then tweet…

This is quite a tall claim. Are there any other supporting arguments? Missing an edge case abuse could be a vulnerability for any good AI still

Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#56
post #5

"Contextual adaptation" is what they want, but that doesn't mean it's coming in the near future. However, this does mean that funding for research on it will be available. As I've said for years, the big lack in AI is in the "common sense" and unstructured manipulation area. Nobody can build something with squirrel levels of manipulation and agility, even in simulation. Robot manipulation in unstructured situations i…

I see papers being written by scholars and professors. Are reputable ways to publish papers that can get reviewed without being in school?

Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#57
post #34
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of those self-driving MLs have a virtual world model in their "head", right? They just react to the latest video frame. If so, it's not even a fish level intelligence, it's more like a house plant.

If youre curious, Cruise has a fairly comprehensive (but long) overview of their tech that goes over their world model and world simulation stuff: https://youtu.be/uJWN0K26NxQ So no, its a bit more than a house plant

Without causal and conceptual understanding, they will never get it done.

Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#58
post #47
post #42

BTW, the Tay example in the slides is bogus. Zero AI involved. You should ask what's cut off when you see a tweet reply like that. This is what's cut off: https://twitter.com/daviottenheimer/status/71288991553350041... Tay had a 'repeat after me' feature (an ancient feature of any IRC chatbot to just echo or print a given string). That's all this is. A troll account issued the command 'Repeat after me' and then tweet…

How much of the controversy surrounding Tay is a result of this specific command?

Possibly all of it. As best as I can tell, there may have been a few milquetoast rudenesses, of the usual sort for language models, but the actual quotes everyone cites with detailed statements about the Holocaust or Hitler seem to have all been repeat-after-mes then ripped out of context. It's hard to say given how most of the relevant material has been deleted, and what survives is the usual endless echo chamber of miscitation and simplification and 'everyone knows' which you rapidly become familiar with if you ever try to factcheck anything down to the original sources. (This is why lots of people still 'know' Cambridge Analytica swung the election, or they 'know' the Twitter facecropping algorithm was hugely biased, or that 'Amazon's HR software would only hire you if you played lacrosse', or 'this guy was falsely arrested because face recognition picked him' etc.) If you look at the very earliest reporting, they mostly say it was repeat-after-me functionality, hedging a bit (because who can prove every inflammatory Tay statement was a repeat-after-me?), and then that rapidly gets dropped in favor of narratives about Tay 'learning'. (Even though if you look at the chatbot code MS released later, it's not obvious at all how exactly Tay would 'learn' in the day or so it had before shutdown.)

Anyway, long story short, the Tay incident is either entirely or mostly bogus in the way people want to use it (as an AI safety parable). The real story, of an `echo` gone wrong, is vastly less interesting, and is about as important as typing '8008' into your calculator and showing it to your teacher.

Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#59
post #58
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much of the controversy surrounding Tay is a result of this specific command?

Possibly all of it. As best as I can tell, there may have been a few milquetoast rudenesses, of the usual sort for language models, but the actual quotes everyone cites with detailed statements about the Holocaust or Hitler seem to have all been repeat-after-mes then ripped out of context. It's hard to say given how most of the relevant material has been deleted, and what survives is the usual endless echo chamber of…

Searching "tay ai" into Google images leads to a handful images that show the initial comment are clearly not "repeat after me" responses. Of those that exist, most of them have been pretty offensive.

Re: A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence [pdf]

#60
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possibly all of it. As best as I can tell, there may have been a few milquetoast rudenesses, of the usual sort for language models, but the actual quotes everyone cites with detailed statements about the Holocaust or Hitler seem to have all been repeat-after-mes then ripped out of context. It's hard to say given how most of the relevant material has been deleted, and what survives is the usual endless echo chamber of…

Searching "tay ai" into Google images leads to a handful images that show the initial comment are clearly not "repeat after me" responses. Of those that exist, most of them have been pretty offensive.

I think you are being insufficiently mediate-literate and skeptical and willing to take screenshots at face-value, given that I just demonstrated that a widely-cited example is in fact maliciously and misleadingly edited to remove the context and lie to the viewer about what happened. Did any of the coverage you read mention that? No, they did not. So why do you trust them on everything else and assume they did a good job researching and factchecking when they were so clearly wrong on that one? Why do you believe the others are not repeat-after-mes? Shouldn't the burden of proof be on anyone who claims a specific tweet can be trusted even if those others are bad?

If I go through 'tay ai' (as I have before), I see much the same thing: I see a lot of clearly edited squirrely images, which remove all of the context, and when they appear to include context, the UI looks wrong (some of these are clearly using the 'Replies' tab on the Tay page, instead of being on the actual convo thread; why? to remove the context with the repeat-after-mes or which would show Tay is just spitting out lots of canned generic responses, of course), and like some tweets are being edited out and the remainder spliced together. Do you really think that a 2016-era mass market chatbot (sub-char-RNN in power, often relying on heavily engineered template/script databases) really knows how to do Trump memes complete with clap emoji? What dataset has those? Of course not. It's just a repeat-after-me where the initial tweets were edited out. (What? Someone edit a screenshot, especially where no one can check the original, to score political points? You really think someone would do that - just go on the Internet and tell lies?)

If we look at ones which seem semi-legitimate, like the genocide one, then all we are seeing is typical chatbot evasiveness and generic Eliza-level responses, cherrypicked out of the 100k or so tweets Tay made before they were all deleted. "Do you support $X?" "I do indeed". Wow! Stunning evidence that 'Microsoft turned an advanced AI loose on the Internet and trolls taught it to be evil', as the narrative goes.

So, like I said. All of the long, coherent, strikingly detailed and most offensive ones appear to be either blatantly or probably repeat-after-mes, while the plausible ones are empty chatbot spacefilling cherrypicked out of countless thousands of tweets and made to look more offensive by implying they are the same as the troll-written repeat-after-mes. Neither one supports the broad narrative Tay is used for by OP. And we can note that, beyond the points I've raised here like "how on earth did it 'learn' so quickly" and "there is no evidence it even had 'learning' turned on", there is generally a striking lack of replications of Tay. Which is exactly what you would expect if all the really offensive ones were due to a single ill-considered repeat-after-me feature left enabled, and the rest are just chatbot phaticisms.

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