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Putin’s Worsening Problems

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Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#51

Post by lamontcg »

mindslight wrote: post #49
gruez wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No fly zone seems like an great way of escalating the conflict, with a nuclear power no less.

"No fly zone" doesn't have a side effect of escalation, its entire substance is nothing but escalation. I think people have some rose tinted view of no fly zones as some objective neutral declaration, but that's basically an artifact of how they have been used to market what was essentially heavy US involvement in other wars. Instead of saying "no fly zone", saying "US jets should attack Russian jets" makes for a mor…

> saying "US jets should attack Russian jets" makes for a more honest description.

Saying "US jets will directly attack and destroy Russian SAM missile batteries several hundred kilometers within Russian soil" gets the picture across better.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#52

Post by bladegash »

gruez wrote: post #39
magicalist wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems needlessly off topic and flamebaity.

If you can come up with another example of "noble lie that went badly", I'm all for it.

Sure, all things going great and your life isn’t under threat, ethics are important and Id encourage people to refrain from lying or harming others.

However, you do not always get to choose the situations you face in life and there is a reason war is described as “hell”. People sacrifice more than just their physical well-being (e.g., think along the idea behind Sophie’s Choice).

It is just the reality that sabotage, deception, and espionage are used and in many ways just as important for winning wars (aka, survival) as any other military tactic/strategy (just look to influential and studied military tacticians such as Sun Tzu, Cardinal Richelieu, or Clausewitz).

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#53

Post by wolverine876 »

macrolocal wrote: post #45
wolverine876 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Kyiv is at best a distraction What is that based on? Factually, Russia has invested a lot to conquer Kyiv and Ukraine; the rest is speculation. They may settle for less, but that is not evidence that it was intended as a distraction. (Also, it is no 'distraction' to the people of Kyiv and Ukraine.)

To bolster empressplay's comment, I read on iz.ru before the invasion that Putin's aims would be (a) to "rescue" Donbass and establish a land bridge to Crimea, and (b) to destabilize NATO. Pundits there also said that claims he intended to attack Kiev were western propaganda. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

> ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I disagree. We're not guessing blindly. We have plenty of evidence. Russian media predictions are not evidence, were plainly wrong, and are now plainly propaganda.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#54

Post by magicalist »

ShivShankaran wrote: post #47
crooked-v wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it less likely that Russia is trying to minimize civilian casualties, and more likely that their occupying forces just don't have the numbers or cohesion to do anything about the protests without getting picked off piecemeal.

>I find it less likely that Russia is trying to minimize civilian casualties A significant population of east Ukraine has family in Russia. This is like New York invading New Jersey. Ridiculous and terrible but they are aware that their family and friends live there. There are hundreds of videos of Ukrainian civilians trying to climb aboard moving Russian convoys and blocking their paths and knocking out their mirror…

Cool, thanks new poster, but there's also videos of Russia shelling hospitals and using cluster bombs (plus there's that whole occupying a country that doesn't want them there thing), so it's likely a case of soldier actions in spite of Russia's intentions rather than because of them.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#55

Post by leobg »

Mearsheimer’s prediction, based on the assumption that this is a superpower feeling under existential threat:

“The Russians are not going to roll over and play dead. In fact what the Russians are going to do is they're going to crush the Ukrainians. They're going to bring out the big guns. They're going to turn places like Kiev and other cities in Ukraine into rubble. They're going to do Fallujahs.”

https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc?t=1257

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#56

Post by tarsinge »

smitty1e wrote: post #11
melling wrote: post #2

Hmmmm… I think people are overlooking the fact that Putin is willing to simply lay siege and use artillery to shell the Ukrainians into submission.

To what effect? So that Ukraine can join Vietnam and Afghanistan and form a "Do Not Do This" triefecta for military history? If this were the only concern, should we just tacitly support Ukraine until Russia implodes? There are nuclear weapons rattling around in there. Politics is all about managing uncertainties. I should think a calmer, less dictatorial outcome would be everyone's interests. Or is it? Because Ukrai…

Excuse my candor but isn’t the status of Taiwan way more contentious than Ukraine? Honestly I’m not the sure the claim is illegitimate enough to stop China (at least that’s what I get after just reading Wikipedia), so while unfortunate for Taiwan at least I hope public opinion in other countries might not want a war, given it’s not even recognized by a lot of countries. The strategic importance it has for the US (and Europe?) is problematic obviously though.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#57

Post by melling »

magicalist wrote: post #35
gruez wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Indiscriminate bombardment of cities does very little to achieve any military objectives, especially when a substantial part of the country 'under siege' is actually entirely untouched by enemy troops. So all the allied bombings in ww2 were pointless?

> So all the allied bombings in ww2 were pointless? More bombs were dropped in Vietnam. Pointless was your word but to address the GP, how effective was that militarily? Stationed artillery is not an occupation.

To answer his question and not provide a meaningless comparison, YES ALL THOSE BOMBINGS IN WW2 were effective.

Now, if someone wants to digress into Vietnam…

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#58

Post by tomjen3 »

melling wrote: post #2

Hmmmm… I think people are overlooking the fact that Putin is willing to simply lay siege and use artillery to shell the Ukrainians into submission.

Putin is a bully and needs to be treated as such. We should have established that no fly zone long ago. Russia only understands strength. We should make it clear that we are stronger, don’t even consider his point and he will back down.

This is hacker news. You have all dealt with bullies. Have they ever backed down, except after being physically hit?

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#60

Post by heavenlyblue »

melling wrote: post #57
magicalist wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So all the allied bombings in ww2 were pointless? More bombs were dropped in Vietnam. Pointless was your word but to address the GP, how effective was that militarily? Stationed artillery is not an occupation.

To answer his question and not provide a meaningless comparison, YES ALL THOSE BOMBINGS IN WW2 were effective. Now, if someone wants to digress into Vietnam…

> YES ALL THOSE BOMBINGS IN WW2 were effective.

How exactly?

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