What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped • Hacker News Board

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#51

Post by mattnewton » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:55 PM UTC

evan_ wrote: post #43

gojomo wrote: post #15

It's also possible there are new, not-yet-publicly-disclosed anti-aircraft countermeasures/weapons. So, after seeing hints of greater-than-expected losses from unknown causes, the Russians may be wary of putting more aircraft at risk until more is understood, & tactics adapt.

I'm not sure if that makes sense. The goal is not to shoot aircraft down, the goal is to prevent them from coming in the first place. Wouldn't you want to disclose the hell out of your extremely effective anti-aircraft weapons so you don't have to use them as much? Obviously not the positioning or numbers but just that you have them...

Not if your goal is to win a war of attrition.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#52

Post by thatguy0900 » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:55 PM UTC

boc wrote: post #36

jcranmer wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the development of air power theory a century ago, it's been widely held that strategic bombing of civilian targets is one of the best ways to quickly end a war. The actual failure of strategic bombing to end wars quickly every time it's been tried notwithstanding.

The Japanese surrender in WWII due to sustained strategic bombing of civilian cities without a single troop landing in mainland Japan is a clear contradiction to this take.

If Russia nuked Ukraine they might win the war on Ukraine, sure. Japan didn't even quit until there were two though. Would they have quit with no nukes and just firebombing?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#53

Post by whimsicalism » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:56 PM UTC

slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

I doubt the Ukrainians are still flying much.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#54

Post by jcranmer » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:57 PM UTC

boc wrote: post #36

jcranmer wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the development of air power theory a century ago, it's been widely held that strategic bombing of civilian targets is one of the best ways to quickly end a war. The actual failure of strategic bombing to end wars quickly every time it's been tried notwithstanding.

The Japanese surrender in WWII due to sustained strategic bombing of civilian cities without a single troop landing in mainland Japan is a clear contradiction to this take.

It's not a clear contradiction; it's one of only two cases that are arguable (the other one being NATO bombing of Serbia during the dissolution of Yugoslavia).

It's noted that it's not clear how much the atomic bombings influenced the decision to surrender, versus the near-simultaneous declaration of war by the USSR on Japan. Furthermore, by the time Japan surrendered, it was clear that Japan had already thoroughly lost. Recall that similar bombing campaigns against the UK (Battle of Britain) and Germany utter failed to bring those nations any closer to surrender.

In any case, compared to the actual theorists like Giulio Douhet who were, before World War II, arguing that attacking cities would cause the will of the nations to collapse before they fully mobilized, the actual results fell far short of the theorists.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#55

Post by mattnewton » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:57 PM UTC

jwlake wrote: post #46

0000011111 wrote: post #9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Air_Force#2021%E2%80%9... In terms of numbers according to the Wikipedia article they have about 650 air planes and ~300 helicopter's. Thats a solid fighting force for a relatively small country. Russia as lots of tools - missiles and such that are good at destroying buildings. The problems in that Putin understands that the cities in Ukraine have value. He is trying to take them…

There's around 40 million people that might have a problem with that.

Yeah I can't help but wonder if Putin is trying to run a playbook that worked in parts of Georgia and "worked" in Chechnya (eventually remaining Russian territory, at great cost), but doesn't scale to major Ukranian cities.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#56

Post by milesdyson_phd » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:57 PM UTC

One thing I don't understand is Russia's opening missile salvos, they barely even struck at the heart of the Ukrainian Air Force. I guess you could theorize they didn't want to destroy that infrastructure in the event that the Ukrainian government rolled over, but that seems to have been a risky bet that is currently playing out.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#57

Post by whimsicalism » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:57 PM UTC

boc wrote: post #50

I think we need to consider the possibility that much of the Russian army only existed on paper, and that the true strength was overinflated by trickling up good news only throughout all ranks of the military.[1] Readiness was overstated. Equipment was overstated. Training was for parades, not combat. Everyone in the Russian military had assumed they'd never actually fight a real war, so they could grift and sell rat…

I think we know the Russian air force exists from Syria.

For ground troops, you may very well be right - they have been heavily relying on private military corps for a while now.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#58

Post by platinumrad » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:58 PM UTC

glogla wrote: post #31

watwut wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war is already in the indiscriminate killing phase and moving towards just destroy city phase. Should be there in few days. Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars.

Yes, after Grozny and Aleppo, anyone saying Russians are trying to limit destruction is deluded or a shill. Russian military strategy has been to force surrender through causing as much civilian death as possible for a while now. Based on his speeches, both before invasion and the leaked one that was supposed to go out after a win, Putins objective is genocide. "The Ukrainian question", dude is literally quoting Hitl…

There is a huge difference between what people are willing to do to racial and cultural others v.s. what they are willing to do to people who look, speak, and live more or less just like them.

Yes, Russia was extremely brutal in Chechnya and in Syria. But consider how brutal the US was in Iraq, and consider how we would operate in a hypothetical war against Canada.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#59

Post by adventured » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:58 PM UTC

The West should be offering ~$5 million per Russian jet that defects, along with EU citizenship.

The US should put up a billion dollars for the program to get it started. Land the jets in NATO territory.

Let's put troop loyalty to the test and see if we can't drain some of their best hardware.

We're not allowed to attack Russia directly so let's plunder them. Our leaders are not being nearly creative enough in this situation.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#60

Post by riku_iki » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:58 PM UTC

0000011111 wrote: post #9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Air_Force#2021%E2%80%9... In terms of numbers according to the Wikipedia article they have about 650 air planes and ~300 helicopter's. Thats a solid fighting force for a relatively small country. Russia as lots of tools - missiles and such that are good at destroying buildings. The problems in that Putin understands that the cities in Ukraine have value. He is trying to take them…

> they have about 650 air planes and ~300 helicopter's.

the question is how many of them are operational.