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Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

mearsheimer.com

51–60 of 74 posts

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a reason Mearsheimer is part of an IR school of thought called "Realists." This analysis doesn't focus much on self-determinism or international law because it assumes that these concepts don't have much influence. I also think that it's regrettable, but people making foreign policy calls should be aware of this line of thinking. For what it's worth, what Mearsheimer is saying here about NATO expansion being…

> it assumes that these concepts don't have much influence. But international law has a lot of influence. As a set of shared norms, it's something that most competently-run countries and polities explicitly foster in order to achieve some sort of long-term stability and predictability that ultimately benefits them all. A "realist" analysis that simply ignores these dynamics and pretends they do not exist is not very…

To my understanding it doesn’t ignore international law so much as singlemindedly focus on the forces and interests that “truly” drive it and are inherent to nature, ie global anarchy navigated by power/security concerns.

“Anarchy is what states make of it” is a great search phrase to pull on this thread with to say the least.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is the one threatening nuclear war here. That’s on Russia, no one else.

It's on everyone who can take actions to prevent it.

I do not know why you are downvoted and flagged. You are perfectly correct, the point of non-proliferation policy is exactly to prevent more states from acquiring such weapons. The agency and rights of non-nuclear owning nations have no bearing here.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it assumes that these concepts don't have much influence. But international law has a lot of influence. As a set of shared norms, it's something that most competently-run countries and polities explicitly foster in order to achieve some sort of long-term stability and predictability that ultimately benefits them all. A "realist" analysis that simply ignores these dynamics and pretends they do not exist is not very…

To my understanding it doesn’t ignore international law so much as singlemindedly focus on the forces and interests that “truly” drive it and are inherent to nature, ie global anarchy navigated by power/security concerns. “Anarchy is what states make of it” is a great search phrase to pull on this thread with to say the least.

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Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is the one threatening nuclear war here. That’s on Russia, no one else.

It's on everyone who can take actions to prevent it.

Yes except your comment seemingly leaves out any responsibility on Russia’s part.

The only way Ukrainian sovereignty leads to nuclear war is if the Russians are making it so.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#56
I think the author is mostly correct, however has one big blind spot.

US policy towards Ukraine is not incorrect, it’s working as designed from the start. They knew how Russia would react, they were just willing to throw them under the bus so they can force Russia’s hand.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#57
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it assumes that these concepts don't have much influence. But international law has a lot of influence. As a set of shared norms, it's something that most competently-run countries and polities explicitly foster in order to achieve some sort of long-term stability and predictability that ultimately benefits them all. A "realist" analysis that simply ignores these dynamics and pretends they do not exist is not very…

On the other hand, international law only influences where the geopolitical setting allows it to. When it comes to the question of life and death for a superpower, international law no longer needs to mean anything. I can observe an analogy of this for an individual person in a situation that he feels is life-threatening: criminal law or civil law are not the first things that come to mind but survival is. Only the o…

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Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#58
post #46

A response by other IR theorists: https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Mosco... HN really don’t like IR and geopolitics. Almost all the other IR centric views on other threads have been downvoted or flagged.

Thanks for posting this. I came away from those criticism thinking Mearsheimer's argument hadn't taken much damage, though I'm still not sure I agree. It is interesting that even the realist author doesn't frame NATO/EU expansion in the context of empire, but of liberal idealism.

It's a shame there isn't more IR discussion here. I'm actually pretty surprised by the low quality of the discourse.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#59
Um, no. It is the democratization, that ticks Russia off. Regardless of EU and US involvement, Russian leadership cannot tolerate a culturally similar country doing better. This would provoke so many questions: how come they get to change their leadership frequently and, apparently, this does not end in disaster? How come their oligarchy does not run rampant? Also, since this is a repeated pattern from Hungary and Czechoslovakia (county makes decisions Moscow does not like, Moscow sends tanks), who provoked them then? By the logic of the author, every move of every country defending themselves or making any decision against the interests of Moscow can be seen as provocation and thus condemned. That’s not realpolitik, that’s just plain old propaganda of the world order, where one or maybe two superpowers have a say and everyone else stays put. That world is gone.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#60

I found his lecture quite interesting as well on YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

Yup, came here to leave the same comment. The video is great and he actually has a solid take on modern geopolitics overall.

As a westernised russian I could be biased. But I’m also trying to maintain a neutral realistic perspective and this view resonates with me a lot.

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