I do wonder how they're going to get enough coverage. There are plenty of places where a fire might start that are dozens of miles from the nearest road. You'd presumably want to deploy the base camps in some sort of grid, which would mean a whole lot of hiking things in on horses.
The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
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Re: The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
#52This is great! Sounds like they are solving the problem of detecting tiny fires in vast wilderness[0]. Detection seems like 80% of the problem. Immediate response would be a huge improvement over the current strategy. That's a win even if they don't solve the drone scaling/deployment/automation problems. [0] https://www.rain.aero/missions/software-engineer-realtime-fi...
They aren't actually detecting the fires, according to this article linked on their press page:
Each drone would be parked inside a secure shelter and launched in response to fire-watch cameras or satellite imagery. It would navigate autonomously to the ignition site using “computer vision,” its infrared sensors feeding data to AI software to estimate the size, growth rate, and direction of the fire, before “deciding” whether to drop retardant on the fire, create a firebreak ahead of it, or summon more drones. Human operators would oversee and approve its operations.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/11/30/can-bay-area-startups...
Re: The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
#53The reason we have such terrible fires now is that we keep putting out fires when they're small. Nature builds up too much burnable matter over time. Small fires would burn it in small, localized areas. But if the small fires don't happen then we get the massive fires that destroy towns, cities, and cost lives. I am not impressed by a new way to put out small fires, because that just ensures bigger fires in the long…
Our past forest management practices are a part of it, but climate change is also a huge part: https://www.c2es.org/content/wildfires-and-climate-change/>
Re: The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
#54The reason we have such terrible fires now is that we keep putting out fires when they're small. Nature builds up too much burnable matter over time. Small fires would burn it in small, localized areas. But if the small fires don't happen then we get the massive fires that destroy towns, cities, and cost lives. I am not impressed by a new way to put out small fires, because that just ensures bigger fires in the long…
I don't think a system like this is comparable to the 10 a.m. policy of attempting to totally suppress all wildfires. It still makes sense to quickly detect and suppress all unwanted wildfires. And as far as I know, the proposed solution to the 10 a.m. policy isn't to just randomly let some percentage of natural wildfires burn as much as they want, but rather to do prescribed burns (and still fight to control and extinguish unwanted wildfires).
Re: The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
#55I'm very intrigued by the potential for new wildfire tech but as someone who lives in wildfire land in Montana i have my doubts about this video... detecting putting out a campfire is a pretty idealized case.
Most fires in our area seem to be started (either by lightning or an improperly extinguished campfire) and then exist as an undetectable underground smolder for quite a while until hot, dry, windy conditions emerge. Then they can blow up incredibly quickly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxcDxp07okc
The current system of lightning strike tracking, inferred overflights, lookouts and helicopter bucket/crew drops works pretty well. They literally drop a crew who can dig down and put out the smoldering parts and then drop a huge amount of water from nearby lakes on starts to get them out.
I could absolutely see drones improving the detection of smolders/smoke plumes but the method they have for putting fires out seems like it wouldn't work on buried smolders or anything that had grown too big. I wonder if they have considered something like a swarm of drones that could scoop water from smaller closer water sources and maximize the delivery rate vs the current helicopter and tanker systems.
Re: The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
#56The reason we have such terrible fires now is that we keep putting out fires when they're small. Nature builds up too much burnable matter over time. Small fires would burn it in small, localized areas. But if the small fires don't happen then we get the massive fires that destroy towns, cities, and cost lives. I am not impressed by a new way to put out small fires, because that just ensures bigger fires in the long…
I would be interested to hear from a scientist on a couple questions I've had around this thinking: I've read that because of this built up material AND dead trees from beetle kill, no water or snow, etc that the fires burn too hot and kill the regenerative seeds. Is this true? If so how does that factor into the balance of that decision? And do they take into account the carbon and pollution emitted that's a HUGE ne…
> Maybe we can't ever stop them from happening in the first place perhaps it's more flatten the curve
We've been trying to "flatten the curve" for the past century. Turns out that was a bad idea. The only way too get back to a healthy ecosystem at this point is to allow a hundred years of excess built up fuel to burn.
California had artificially pleasant (i.e mostly wildfire-free) summers for many years. The next few decades will be paying the price for that.
Re: The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
#57The reason we have such terrible fires now is that we keep putting out fires when they're small. Nature builds up too much burnable matter over time. Small fires would burn it in small, localized areas. But if the small fires don't happen then we get the massive fires that destroy towns, cities, and cost lives. I am not impressed by a new way to put out small fires, because that just ensures bigger fires in the long…
I read about this a few months back and it seems that a key issue with controlled burns is liability. No-one wants to be responsible if the wind blows in an unexpected direction and it gets out of control. They’re scared of the variables. And of course, the less you burn, the greater the risk when you do burn, so it’s a vicious cycle.
Re: The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
#58“Rain acknowledges the essential role of wildfire in healthy ecosystems. Read More.” I was glad to see this
The "read more" largely turns it into "Rain acknowledges the essential role of wildfire in healthy ecosystems, but chooses to ignore it".
Re: The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
#59Meanwhile in the world of forest management: https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/prescribed-fire
Re: The Rain System “contains wildfires within 10 minutes of ignition”
#60This is great! Sounds like they are solving the problem of detecting tiny fires in vast wilderness[0]. Detection seems like 80% of the problem. Immediate response would be a huge improvement over the current strategy. That's a win even if they don't solve the drone scaling/deployment/automation problems. [0] https://www.rain.aero/missions/software-engineer-realtime-fi...
It looks like a practical use-case for drones even if the dropping of suppressive poke-balls probably needs improvement. Rough numbers: 3 million acres of forest in USA, one drone could ultimately cover 500 sq km (13 km radius) 6000ish drones call it 10k for redundancy Even at 10k per drone including base station that’s roughly $100M in hardware to cover the entirety of US forestland. PG&E is your first customer. edi…
Honestly $100M is not bad considering a single Boeing 737 costs the same amount.
But realistically you'd want winged drones, otherwise you'd need a large number of bases (power hookups, maintenance, etc.).