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Misidentifying talent

danluu.com

51–60 of 167 posts

Re: Misidentifying talent

#51
the one theory i read about on the correlation between height and managerial position is that, people's confidence correlate highly with height when they were teenagers (I am assuming that people's height when they are teenagers also highly correlate with their final, adult height), and in a corporate environment, marginally more confident goes a long way -- way more than marginally better at programming or building spreadsheet.

And as someone who is in a bit of a managerial position myself, and having watched many others try to manage to various degree of success, I'd say this translation between confidence to managerial responsibility is a feature not a bug. You really do want to put a confident person in charge if only that others are more inclined to follow her. An adequate plan resolutely executed is much better than a somewhat better plan timidly presented.

check out this old HN thread on "rich kids already won the career game" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2296550

Re: Misidentifying talent

#52

Funniest thing is that the companies with the most extreme leetcode interviews, Facebook, roblox, etc also fell the hardest in the most recent sell off. There’s even a quote by kieth rabois, one one the top VCs, that FB hired and built their culture around optimization, which has failed. They can’t innovate because innovative type people weren’t let into the company.

> They can’t innovate because innovative type people weren’t let into the company. I am starting to think this is a broader trend in human societies and is probably the primary failure mode of human enterprise more broadly. People who aren't inclined to creative rational problem solving must still produce labors for the masters if they do not want to starve in the street like the examples we leave there to suffer pub…

Well said. This is American society in a nutshell.

Re: Misidentifying talent

#53
post #31

I wonder if some small part of the problem lies in the word "talent" . The implication is that developers are born with some sort of innate ability to write software well rather than coding being something you can learn with practise. Calling people "talent" suggests recruitment is a hunt for some person with a rare underlying ability rather than just looking for someone with a skill they've learned. This could also…

I can speak from the chess world, as a coach. I used to believe there was really no such thing as talent largely based on my own experience as I started relatively late, don't consider myself talented, and reached a reasonably high level at the game. I kind of still do think there's no such thing as talent, but that comes with a bunch of asterisks.

If you take two people and expose them to normal training regimens, different people will have different results - and frequently extremely different results. One could argue that the person who performed worse might have performed better if given exposure to a different regimen but in practice I find those that tend to overperform in one regimen tend to overperform in other regimens as well.

The catch is that the outcome is largely predicted by how the student responds to the training itself. The person who finds it interesting and enjoyable is going to dramatically outperform compared to the person who may be highly motivated by an outcome (wanting to become a good player) but doesn't especially enjoy the process - tactical training, game analysis, etc.

And so talent may not just be some innate ability at something but rather an innate preference, which is going to be the product of a million other things, for enjoying certain things. An amusing anecdote in the chess world came from retired World Champion Vladimir Kramnik. He recently casually remarked that now that he's retired he's spending less than 50% of his time with chess, as if as if he was just kicking back and neglecting the game by only dedicating 40% of his life to it.

Obviously there are some genetic factors like the ability to visualize/concentrate/etc that people usually think they are talking about when referring to talent. But the role those play will only start to matter when people reach some level at least vaguely approaching their potential, but they'll never get anywhere near that level without the thousands of hours of work and training that they'll likely never complete without a love of that work itself.

This is probably just a really long-winded way of repeating Thomas Edison, "Genius is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration." The only catch is whether you have the capacity to put out that 99% perspiration.

Re: Misidentifying talent

#54

Funniest thing is that the companies with the most extreme leetcode interviews, Facebook, roblox, etc also fell the hardest in the most recent sell off. There’s even a quote by kieth rabois, one one the top VCs, that FB hired and built their culture around optimization, which has failed. They can’t innovate because innovative type people weren’t let into the company.

Does Roblox have such a reputation? iirc the toughest thing they asked for was a parser/evaluator for arithmetic expressions.

Re: Misidentifying talent

#56
post #31

I wonder if some small part of the problem lies in the word "talent" . The implication is that developers are born with some sort of innate ability to write software well rather than coding being something you can learn with practise. Calling people "talent" suggests recruitment is a hunt for some person with a rare underlying ability rather than just looking for someone with a skill they've learned. This could also…

I can speak from the chess world, as a coach. I used to believe there was really no such thing as talent largely based on my own experience as I started relatively late, don't consider myself talented, and reached a reasonably high level at the game. I kind of still do think there's no such thing as talent, but that comes with a bunch of asterisks. If you take two people and expose them to normal training regimens, d…

I think there's a massive difference between coaching people to play competitive chess and teaching people to be good developers. For a start, in chess you only really start making good money from it when you're exceptionally good. Most chess players only ever play for their own satisfaction.

The same is absolutely not true for developers. You might well need talent to be a chess player who makes a living from chess, but there is no evidence that developers can't make a good living from their skill without having any innate talent in an area of software development. I've met and worked with plenty of good developers who essentially write code by brute forcing solutions to problems combined with lots of Googling. We all do it.

Re: Misidentifying talent

#57
post #38
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I’m not convinced that related behaviors, like constructing a game adjacent to the problem you’re actually trying to solve and treating game performance as a proxy (like LeetCode interviews! Or KPIs!) are helpful. The devil is as always in the details. At least as far as KPIs go, they can be very useful if they are chosen appropriately and if the senior team members have all bought in to the concept. Example: I used…

I agree with everything you say except the bit where the failure rate is a fantastic KPI. It has room for improvement. > they have a requirement in most areas to be airborne within 30 minutes when called. [...] "percentage of the time where maintenance can't get an aircraft ready to be flying missions in less than 30 minutes". The problem with this KPI is that it's completely arbitrary. Why does it have to be 30 minu…

On the one hand, choosing an arbitrary but good enough target avoids wasting effort on overoptimization and ensures a focus on the worst case, not on the best case; on the other hand improvements are not elastic: maybe rearranging parts and supplies to make them more accessible is enough to make 28 minutes as likely as 30 before, but getting to 26 minutes could require expensive tools and 24 minutes would require different, easier to service aircraft.

Re: Misidentifying talent

#58

Funniest thing is that the companies with the most extreme leetcode interviews, Facebook, roblox, etc also fell the hardest in the most recent sell off. There’s even a quote by kieth rabois, one one the top VCs, that FB hired and built their culture around optimization, which has failed. They can’t innovate because innovative type people weren’t let into the company.

I want to agree with you but, uh, Google seemed to do fine, and they invented this BS.

Re: Misidentifying talent

#59
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with everything you say except the bit where the failure rate is a fantastic KPI. It has room for improvement. > they have a requirement in most areas to be airborne within 30 minutes when called. [...] "percentage of the time where maintenance can't get an aircraft ready to be flying missions in less than 30 minutes". The problem with this KPI is that it's completely arbitrary. Why does it have to be 30 minu…

> Instead of comparing yourself to arbitrary thresholds, use the raw metric as a KPI instead. Use "minutes until airborne" as the KPI. That you can optimise indefinitely, and it is an honest representation of your current process, not how it compares to a number someone threw out at some time. This is an example of a more general phenomenon - when you have outcome buckets, it's generally better to do your modeling on…

> Use "minutes until airborne" as the KPI.

Average minutes to airborne? Median? Mode? 90th percentile? 99th percentile?

Optimizing for each of those would result in a different process, different outcomes, and quite possibly worse outcomes for the stakeholders than "proportion under 30 minutes" which is just a sixth way to slice the same data.

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