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Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

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Re: Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

#51

Facebook is a social network. Being social, it is subject to the same laws of attraction, affection, excitement, and coolness that the hot new restaurant, dance club, and sports stadium are in your particular city. Step 1: the cool kids spot a new place and start hanging out there. Step 2: the first signs of the popped collared masses show up, pushing the cool kids out as they realized the lame-streamers have spotted…

At which step does the restaurant, dance club, or sports stadium become profitable? I guarantee it's not step 1 or probably even step 2.

Re: Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

#52
post #49
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reliability doesn't matter. What matters is who's using what. If all my friends are on AIM, then I'll be on AIM. But they're not, everyone's on Facebook, and uses txt/whatsapp/bbm when they're away from their computer. What I am saying is that I would like to see Facebook become the universal communication method between my friends and me.

But when it does become the universal method, reliability starts to matter.

You're right, I should have said that at the moment, reliability is not directly critical for the success of the service.

However, I do not have any issues with the reliability of Facebook chat. Not to say that there are no issues, they just haven't affected me ...yet.

Re: Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

#53

Facebook is a social network. Being social, it is subject to the same laws of attraction, affection, excitement, and coolness that the hot new restaurant, dance club, and sports stadium are in your particular city. Step 1: the cool kids spot a new place and start hanging out there. Step 2: the first signs of the popped collared masses show up, pushing the cool kids out as they realized the lame-streamers have spotted…

I'm not sure step 5 has happened, and step 6 will never happen as written. There are way more people on Farmville than on Twitter.

Re: Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

#54
It's bewildering to talk about some kind of crisis when everything I've seen indicates that Facebook commands more and more of the average user's time online - http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/07/comscore-facebook-keeps-gob....

Of course, the article's conclusion isn't based on useful metrics, but on scattershot, poorly reasoned reactions to Facebook's product strategy. Like Google, Facebook is steadily simplifying and unifying their products and as with Google, journalists can't wrap their heads around it.

-Place-tagging is still in Facebook and is arguably more powerful than ever as Facebook has steadily made tagging people with you almost effortlessly easy on all platforms. Facebook's Places directory is probably as complete as Yelp's and they're doing some very interesting A - B user preference polling. I'd have a hard time finding a local restaurant or business without a well maintained Facebook page.

-Every social network has had a hard time encouraging users to "group" so it shouldn't be a surprise that Facebook is iterating/experimenting. Google's implementation really isn't that sophisticated - it simply forces you to group everyone and has a pretty UI. For all we know, this overly-involved friending process is why + is flopping. Smart Lists automate the process to a degree that Google and Twitter haven't attempted.

-Subscriptions looks like another well-measured shot at Twitter. The "subscription" model looks like a much more comprehensible model for following public figures than Pages, which have been quite successful in their own right (see Places).

I could go on, but suffice to say, I find a lot of these criticisms poorly reasoned.

Re: Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

#56

Facebook is a social network. Being social, it is subject to the same laws of attraction, affection, excitement, and coolness that the hot new restaurant, dance club, and sports stadium are in your particular city. Step 1: the cool kids spot a new place and start hanging out there. Step 2: the first signs of the popped collared masses show up, pushing the cool kids out as they realized the lame-streamers have spotted…

Good analysis, but when did Twitter take over? Of the people that I joined Facebook to interact with, maybe 5% have a Twitter account and a minority of them actually use it.

Re: Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

#57
post #53

Facebook is a social network. Being social, it is subject to the same laws of attraction, affection, excitement, and coolness that the hot new restaurant, dance club, and sports stadium are in your particular city. Step 1: the cool kids spot a new place and start hanging out there. Step 2: the first signs of the popped collared masses show up, pushing the cool kids out as they realized the lame-streamers have spotted…

I'm not sure step 5 has happened, and step 6 will never happen as written. There are way more people on Farmville than on Twitter.

There is no real action happening on Farmville.

Re: Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

#58
I thought Facebook was supposed to a utility.

I use FB to keep in touch with those I might not otherwise. But FB's messaging is horrible. I hate the fact that they keep all your old messages in a stream. Last week, I sent you a funny NSFW photo and this week I want to discuss business.

I don't want "messaging" to be a constant chat log. I want a UTILITY like gmail that works extremely well and allows me to contact friends & family in a central database.

Instead I get "Attachment Unavailable" when sending messages -- with no way of fixing it or understanding why.

I used to marvel at how awesome, efficient and effective FB was at design and coding. But now I'm more shocked at how stupid some companies could be like FB, eventually devolving into an AOL-attitude of stupidity.

Facebook = AOL of 2010s, it's better coded but equally obnoxious

Re: Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

#59

Facebook is a social network. Being social, it is subject to the same laws of attraction, affection, excitement, and coolness that the hot new restaurant, dance club, and sports stadium are in your particular city. Step 1: the cool kids spot a new place and start hanging out there. Step 2: the first signs of the popped collared masses show up, pushing the cool kids out as they realized the lame-streamers have spotted…

At which step does the restaurant, dance club, or sports stadium become profitable? I guarantee it's not step 1 or probably even step 2.

Sports stadiums are never profitable. Tax payers in the municipalities where the stadiums are built pick up the losses in almost all cases, either during construction or when the team decides to just leave and holds them ransom for a new one.

2/3 of restaurants fail outright soon after opening. The other 1/3 tend to be profitable really quickly (running a restaurant is tough and you can't run it at a loss for very long). You'll see successful restaurant owners start another one within a few years, because the old one is starting to get stale to people. Besides, around that time usually the star chef decides to move onto something better too.

Dance clubs fall into a couple of categories IMHO. You have the smaller spots, which can and do thrive. They hold about a 100 or fewer people, are often started by one really savvy entrepreneur who just wanted to create a cool spot (sound familiar to hackers and OSS? :-P). Then you have the bigger spots. These are cavernous mega clubs, and in my experience they're often in one way or another linked to organized crime and/or money laundering. They'll garner a lot of attention through PR, celebrity sightings, and marketing, and eventually implode under a pile of debt. How you can pile up debt selling alcohol at $7 a shot and several hundred dollars a bottle, I'm not quite sure. Read about Peter Gatien, one of the more notorious club owners in North America. Jay-Z has rapped about him: "Me and my operation, running New York nightscene, with one eye closed, like Peter Gatien". The whole business is about shifting debt like a hot potato. It's disgusting.

Social businesses have a finite amount of time with which they are fashionable to the masses and under which their growth is distorted. That first explosive growth trend never repeats itself ever again, which is probably what Facebook is trying to contend with right now as it decides when to go public.

If I were Mark Zuckerberg... I'm clearly not anywhere as brilliant as he is... but if I were in his shoes, I'd take a page from other successful social entrepreneurs. Start something new that's cool and is not Facebook-branded. The trick to social businesses is that the entrepreneur should be the brand. Facebook should be a Zuckerberg product in the same way that 69 Royal Hospital Road is but a single Gordon Ramsay restaurant. Zuck should have a portfolio of social sites, not one fucking behemoth that, when it fails, takes him down with it.

Re: Facebook's Newest Problem: Being Boring

#60
post #46

Facebook is a social network. Being social, it is subject to the same laws of attraction, affection, excitement, and coolness that the hot new restaurant, dance club, and sports stadium are in your particular city. Step 1: the cool kids spot a new place and start hanging out there. Step 2: the first signs of the popped collared masses show up, pushing the cool kids out as they realized the lame-streamers have spotted…

Has step 6 happened already? I have a hard time figuring it out since I was part of step 2 and haven't seen all the cool kids that were there in 2006 leaving for Twitter... I believe you could apply the same logic to almost everything but Google is still the cool kid after all these years as is Manchester United, right?

Until now, Google has not had to care about the coolness factor. They weren't in the social space. Now that they are, just look at how Google+ has fizzled. They pulled the worst stunt you possibly could have pulled when you're trying to be cool: hold a line-up outside your club only to have people come in and find out nobody is inside and the party sucks.

Step 6 has definitely already happened. Remember what is cool is not necessarily what is popular. Cool is the derivative of popularity though. At any given time, if you want to find out what will become popular later on, just find out what's cool. Twitter has 106 M users vs Facebook's 500 M as of 2010. It's clearly not as popular as Facebook. But Twitter's growth has been faster (and more sustainable than Google+'s initial exponential growth) than Facebook's was. The trend is keeping up and as much as we can laugh and joke about the utility of Twitter, I'd say that it is already at Step 4. You already are finding people that want to move onto something else that's cool (which IMHO is what drove the initial adoption of Google+).

We can relearn all of these lessons or we can just admit that we're really doing social businesses and these sort of things have been around for a long time. How they work is well known. Just, up until this past decade or so, we'd never seen them in the technology space.

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