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America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

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Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#51

Post by sAbakumoff »

misiti3780 wrote: post #15
sAbakumoff wrote: post #8

America will not collapse, but American democracy likely will collapse. At the end of 2022, GOP will win the mid-term elections and have the majority in the house and the senate. They already have state legislatures effectively under control, and the supreme court is full of conservative judges. In 2024 Ron De Santos, or another authoritarian candidate, will win the GOP nomination and easily win the election because…

If that happens, the democrats only have themselves to blame at this point. Biden came in with a 60+% approval rating, now he is in the high 20s / low 30s. I actually think it's more likely that a third party like Andrew Yangs Forward Party emerges and wins an election. A lot of people are sick of two options, and feel alienated in by their own party (both sides)

100%. The only promise that Biden can keep is that "nothing will fundamentally change".

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#52

Post by avgDev »

piva00 wrote: post #40
systemvoltage wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good, US has been spending unfair share and has been the nanny of the world. One thing I agreed with Trump policy was this inward-looking aspect - no more stupid wars, no more pulling the weight of NATO and no more nation building in ME. Note that these policies were bipartisan - Bushes and Clintons/Obama supported them and spun the military industrial complex slot machine. What Trump did was very much in the stark c…

> Good, US has been spending unfair share and has been the nanny of the world. Unfair share? Based on what? The spending is directly correlated to USA's interests, there is no nanny-ing or "good will" going on, it's a matter of purely international interests. Looking at this with the patronising "unfair share" is a bit preposterous. I'd say it's pretty unfair to a lot of countries being forced under the sphere of inf…

OP completely missing the point why US is spending so much money on military. US doesn't care about ANYONE but US. All moves and "nannying" is strategical in nature and to US benefit.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#53

Post by colinmhayes »

misiti3780 wrote: post #15
sAbakumoff wrote: post #8

America will not collapse, but American democracy likely will collapse. At the end of 2022, GOP will win the mid-term elections and have the majority in the house and the senate. They already have state legislatures effectively under control, and the supreme court is full of conservative judges. In 2024 Ron De Santos, or another authoritarian candidate, will win the GOP nomination and easily win the election because…

If that happens, the democrats only have themselves to blame at this point. Biden came in with a 60+% approval rating, now he is in the high 20s / low 30s. I actually think it's more likely that a third party like Andrew Yangs Forward Party emerges and wins an election. A lot of people are sick of two options, and feel alienated in by their own party (both sides)

Biden's approval rating is currently 43%. Third parties can't win in a first past the post system.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#54

Post by anonporridge »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #31
Joker_vD wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The collapse of the USSR in 1991 came as quite the shock to everyone, including both the Soviets themselves, nevermind the Americans. Yes, the West have been spelling "doom and gloom" for the USSR since November of 1917 and yet it never came to pass... until one day, it suddenly did. And BTW, spelling the imminent doom of the Russian Empire too has been quite in vogue in Europe during the XIX century, and still it ca…

The USSR had alternate models to move to. What alternate model does the US have? The only ones that are somewhat successful are Russian and Chinese style authoritarianism, neither of which are palatable to the US population.

The alternative style for the US is more loose confederation of independent states than tightly unified under a powerful federal government.

This has literally been the key point of contention from just about day one.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#55

Post by jessaustin »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #31
Joker_vD wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The collapse of the USSR in 1991 came as quite the shock to everyone, including both the Soviets themselves, nevermind the Americans. Yes, the West have been spelling "doom and gloom" for the USSR since November of 1917 and yet it never came to pass... until one day, it suddenly did. And BTW, spelling the imminent doom of the Russian Empire too has been quite in vogue in Europe during the XIX century, and still it ca…

The USSR had alternate models to move to. What alternate model does the US have? The only ones that are somewhat successful are Russian and Chinese style authoritarianism, neither of which are palatable to the US population.

Maybe we could be like most of Europe? A little bit less capitalism, a little bit more socialism, quite a lot less stupid wars?

What was I thinking, of course that's absolutely unthinkable...

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#56

Post by [deleted] »

coldtea wrote: post #9
starwind wrote: post #3

I lol'd at this oil analysis. The author had no idea what technological developments would be widely deployed in just the next couple years after they wrote this

> I lol'd at this oil analysis. You really shouldn't tho. > The author had no idea what technological developments would be widely deployed in just the next couple years after they wrote this None of the technological developments created since then [2010] are able to mitigate an oil shock of the kind described in the article given their current deployment levels. Actually, not even any developments that might be cre…

[deleted]

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#57

Post by kube-system »

esens wrote: post #13
Clubber wrote: post #5

Doom and gloom has been selling for decades. Don't buy it.

Empires all do end and when they do they often fracture because of a built up of social discontent, but they are predicted to be ending 1000x more often than they end. Eventually someone calls it correctly though, and generally you only know who in hindsight.

720 broken clocks might have one with the correct time on it, but that doesn’t mean it was working properly.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#58

Post by Jtsummers »

systemvoltage wrote: post #21
phekunde wrote: post #12

America will not collapse, it will become less relevant. The multipolar world is going to be more prominent going forward. Even France's Macron is talking about making EU independent of US influence. And with emerging country like India already having a DNA of non-alignment, it looks like the US will have a say in global world order but the influence will be far more limited than what it use to be.

Good, US has been spending unfair share and has been the nanny of the world. One thing I agreed with Trump policy was this inward-looking aspect - no more stupid wars, no more pulling the weight of NATO and no more nation building in ME. Note that these policies were bipartisan - Bushes and Clintons/Obama supported them and spun the military industrial complex slot machine. What Trump did was very much in the stark c…

"unfair" is, in my view, the wrong way to frame it. It's a question of cost/benefit analysis. Does the US, by virtue of its effective global military presence, gain more through spending and maintaining it, in order to protect allies and its own interests, even if said allies fail to contribute a "fair" amount? (Whatever that may mean)

A loss of military hegemony will most likely reduce the US's global political and economic role as other countries move to fill that void or take advantage of the absence (China, Russia, at present). The net effect will likely be a shrinking of the US economy in the end, and not growth or even sustainment.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#59

Post by parkingrift »

realce wrote: post #49
parkingrift wrote: post #34

>After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2020, as long expected, the U.S. dollar finally loses its special status as the world's reserve currency. Suddenly, the cost of imports soars. Unable to pay for swelling deficits by selling now-devalued Treasury notes abroad, Washington is finally forced to slash its bloated military budget. It's funny and interesting that the military bu…

Those figures are required expenditures, not budgets. They represent agreements between tax-paying citizens/employees and the government. The military's funding is variable and not required - the Constitution doesn't even support a centralized military. You're equating very different things.

No, I'm not. I specifically said spending and outlays. If you want to lawyer your way into a discretionary vs non-discretionary argument, have at it. I find it pointless in most scenarios, and especially in the context of this article.

In this hypothetical scenario where America can't borrow money or easily run a deficit, it won't matter at all whether a line item is discretionary or non-discretionary. Cutting the military budget won't magically help anything.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#60

Post by jessaustin »

sAbakumoff wrote: post #8

America will not collapse, but American democracy likely will collapse. At the end of 2022, GOP will win the mid-term elections and have the majority in the house and the senate. They already have state legislatures effectively under control, and the supreme court is full of conservative judges. In 2024 Ron De Santos, or another authoritarian candidate, will win the GOP nomination and easily win the election because…

...American democracy likely will collapse.

American democracy collapsed in 1788, when the wealthy forced through a "constitution" that overruled democratic regulation of debt.

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