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Turkey's Financial Crisis

adamtooze.substack.com

51–60 of 207 posts

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That country is Russian, right? Or Saudi Arabia? I am not very familiar with Syria situation. Purely a honest question.

Saudi Arabia as the direct source of Wahhabis, with the US funding and arming them. Russia has been supporting the secular Syrian government.

I fail to see how the US is funding the Saudis. Arming, maybe. Funding? Not so much.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#52
post #5

I looked up the core values of Turkey. And their debt to gdp ratio is 40%. Neighboring Greece is 200%. The Turkish economy was the second fastest growing economy last year in the G20 and is on pace to be the one of the fastest growing economies this year. Turkey has had record exports and been one of the most successful in tourism both last year and this year helping the current account deficit. Yet bankrupt Greece c…

is this unexpected ? erdogan literally buys weapons from russia as a nato member, allies with putin at every occassion and disregards any civilized values. he'd like to squeeze minorities as he wants, oppress the opposition as he wants and ally with whoever he wants. at that point, people might not want to cooperate with you, a bit of diplomacy eh ?

So, he is acting like a leader who puts his country first? How is that bad?

If US doesn't want to sell weapons to Turkey, its NATO ally, is Turkey supposed to give up and stay defenceless against terrorists that attack its borders?

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#53
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has nothing to do with religious beliefs, its all about gathering capital on his side. He is just abusing peoples' religious beliefs. Everybody knows the new savings scheme he introduced is essentially increasing interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, I do not think that Erdogan will continue to mold Turkey's future. So far Turkey always had 40-50% opposition which could not unit, but now they are all united…

> Everybody knows the new savings scheme he introduced is essentially increasing interest rates. This is not true. Raising interest rates would mean raising the cost of funding for the banking system. Under the new saving scheme, since the Treasury pays depositors the extra yield, the cost for banks remains unchanged. As does the marginal cost of borrowing from the central bank. The new saving scheme is a free dollar…

> printing money

Something it cannot do without increasing its own borrowing costs, and reducing the import purchasing power of its currency. This has been tried and doesn't work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#54
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everybody knows the new savings scheme he introduced is essentially increasing interest rates. This is not true. Raising interest rates would mean raising the cost of funding for the banking system. Under the new saving scheme, since the Treasury pays depositors the extra yield, the cost for banks remains unchanged. As does the marginal cost of borrowing from the central bank. The new saving scheme is a free dollar…

Borrowing cost for both companies and individuals increased substantially this week. Yes, it is true.

Borrowing costs increased independently of the new savings product. They were rising well before it was announced and increased further because the market priced in a higher level of inflation following the sharp depreciation.

The higher rate on deposits that the new saving scheme offers doesn't increase funding costs for banks in anyway. The Treasury literally pays the depositors the extra yield, not the banks.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#55
post #6

Just a question: would it have been a good idea for a Turkish person, say, a year ago, to invest in stable coins to prevent suffering from Lira depreciation? PS: This is a sincere question… EDIT: some are asking why not real Euros or Dollars? I was thinking convenience and availability. I’m not sure if you could just easily get dollars in Turkey.

Why not straight-up crypto? Ethereum is up 647% from a year ago.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Syria was a prosperous and deeply secular country, with many cultural sites dating back to the ancient world. At least it was until imported wahabbi terrorists from you know where started to split the country up, turning parts of it into a Islamic State caliphate. Today, Syria is being plundered by the same countries that helped the terrorists sell the stolen oil. We all know which country smuggled truckloads worth o…

That country is Russian, right? Or Saudi Arabia? I am not very familiar with Syria situation. Purely a honest question.

Russia is invited by the government to help in the fight against wahabbi terrorists imported from Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Turkey used to smuggle Syrian oil, but today that "job" belongs to the USA.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#57
post #5

I looked up the core values of Turkey. And their debt to gdp ratio is 40%. Neighboring Greece is 200%. The Turkish economy was the second fastest growing economy last year in the G20 and is on pace to be the one of the fastest growing economies this year. Turkey has had record exports and been one of the most successful in tourism both last year and this year helping the current account deficit. Yet bankrupt Greece c…

[deleted]

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#59
post #5

I looked up the core values of Turkey. And their debt to gdp ratio is 40%. Neighboring Greece is 200%. The Turkish economy was the second fastest growing economy last year in the G20 and is on pace to be the one of the fastest growing economies this year. Turkey has had record exports and been one of the most successful in tourism both last year and this year helping the current account deficit. Yet bankrupt Greece c…

You're looking at the wrong metrics. Instead:

- Change in foreign reserves.

- Private debt to GDP, particularly denominated in EUR and USD.

- Turkish private bank debt to FX reserves, particularly denominated in EUR and USD.

Turkey's problem is having to pay for inputs in EUR or USD and interest payments in EUR or USD at the same time such reserves and the ability to acquire such reserves are in decline & increasing in cost.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#60
post #6

Just a question: would it have been a good idea for a Turkish person, say, a year ago, to invest in stable coins to prevent suffering from Lira depreciation? PS: This is a sincere question… EDIT: some are asking why not real Euros or Dollars? I was thinking convenience and availability. I’m not sure if you could just easily get dollars in Turkey.

Why not straight-up crypto? Ethereum is up 647% from a year ago.

I did a "dumb" crypto experiment to prove your question.

Just over a year ago (Nov 2020), I bought $100 of BTC and $100 of ETH... on Paypal of all places. Didn't touch it at all.

Today, it is worth $1221.37 (+510.32%).

ETH: $899.22 (+799.22%), BTC: $320.77 (+220.77%)

You're right mentioning ETH over BTC. =)

My plan is to donate this to charity.

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