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Omicron Update, Dec 2

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

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Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#51

Post by beagle3 »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #36
adam_arthur wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, of course. But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. You can't lockdown the virus away. You can't stop the spread by canceling flights either. Just seems like awful policymaking driven by virtue signaling. Covid is here forever, and that's life.

This is nonsense. Vaccination stopped smallpox and polio. Failure at Zero Covid is the result of poor, anti-realistic policies and attitudes - like yours, for example. It's not because it's impossible, either economically or scientifically.

This is nonsense.

Vaccination did not stop measles or whooping cough, and has not even reduced their spread (only their symptoms) despite decades of availability.

Both of their vaccines are leaky - just like the Covid vaccine.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#52

Post by seafoam »

loeg wrote: post #33
junon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading There is not widespread vaccination, though. That's where your argument falls apart.

That, and vaccination does reduce transmission in addition to disease severity.

Vaccination reduces positive PCR test results in the weeks after the jab. It is not for sure that it reduces community transmission.

In the US, the CDC stopped publishing the data one would need to get answers on this in May. For some reason.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#53

Post by jrochkind1 »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #44
jrochkind1 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The South African scientists I have read saying "over-reacting" also agree with what you summarize as most researchers saying: "we will have to pay attention to it". They say we are over-reacting because many places are doing more than paying attention to it, making policy decisions and instituting additional restrictions based on unproven fears about it, not just paying attention to it. The South African scientists…

Believing there's an option to do nothing until more data is available is a luxurious fallacy. By then it's too late. Obviously. That's the problem with exponential growth. Not much seems to happen until suddenly it all happens at once, and the only chance to prevent that was a few weeks ago.

I don't understand your theory of when it's appropriate to impose restrictions before you have enough data to know they are useful or necessary.

Is your suggestion, what, to impose the strictest restrictions possible everywhere, forever, just in case, because by the time we know it's really necessary it's too late, so we should always do it without knowing it's necessary?

Like, what do you think should trigger restrictions? Just finding a variant? Should all the variants Alpha through Mu have triggered global worldwide lockdown, because if they had turned out more dangerous than they did, by the time we had found that out it would have been too late? Basically we should lock down until there are no more variants? (Will that ever happen?)

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#54

Post by adam_arthur »

volta83 wrote: post #49
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Good question. Excess mortality in the USA and the EU in 2020 were ~470k and ~580k deaths. The population of the USA and the EU in Jan 2020 was ~329 and ~447 million. The excess mortality in the USA and the EU in 2020 was ~143 vs ~129 excess deaths per 100.000 inhabitants. The USA had ~10% more excess deaths per capita than the EU. People living in the EU during 2020 had statistically a significantly better chance of…

I wouldn't call 10% difference significantly higher... more like within the margin of error.

With such drastic policy differences you would expect to see a larger effect.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#55

Post by tremon »

adam_arthur wrote: post #45
junon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading There is not widespread vaccination, though. That's where your argument falls apart.

Covid is spreading at a similar rate today in most countries as it did when it first struck and there was no vaccine at all. Look at the trends in Italy, UK, US, for example. I agree the vaccine helps, but there is no clear impact on reducing spread if you look at infection data in aggregate. We've gone from 0% vaccinated, to 60-70% with no discernable dip in infection counts.

You still can't compare those trends, because many of those countries have relaxed their lockdown measures after reaching a certain level of vaccination. When looking at hospitalization rates instead of only case rates, it seems that the countries with high levels of vaccination are seeing a much lower percentage of cases ending up in hospital.

Taking for example the NL numbers: we have twice as many cases/day as during last winter's peak, but only half as many deaths/day. Naively, that suggests that the vaccines reduce case mortality by 75%. But that data is also hopelessly incomplete: we recently reinstated some of our lockdown measures, so the number of infections/day is stabilizing, but fatalities/day will probably keep rising for another week.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#56

Post by beagle3 »

tremon wrote: post #46
beagle3 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vaccine is leaky. It doesn’t stop infection or transmission. It’s not clear yet if it is putting any evolutionary pressure towards vaccine evasion (some people expect it to). But SA is no more a breeding ground than anywhere else. The well-documented breeding grounds are the immune suppressed, and it is incredibly unlikely that omicron developed in one of them.

The vaccine is leaky. It doesn’t stop infection or transmission. No one ever claimed it would, except for the anti-vax crowd. Infection, transmission, and immunity aren't binary, and over 99% of domain specialists are in agreement on that. So why would you open your post with that claim?

GP I was responding to claimed SA was a breeding ground for variants. Unless he has a new explanation different from the other hundreds of people with this claim, it eventually rests on a non leaky vaccine.

And that’s why I started with this claim. Now, if you have an explanation as to why SA would be a better breeding ground for variants, I would love to hear it.

If you read my post in context, you would likely have noticed that, so I’ll wait till you do and if you have more questions I’ll consider answering them.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#57

Post by CabSauce »

adam_arthur wrote: post #45
junon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading There is not widespread vaccination, though. That's where your argument falls apart.

Covid is spreading at a similar rate today in most countries as it did when it first struck and there was no vaccine at all. Look at the trends in Italy, UK, US, for example. I agree the vaccine helps, but there is no clear impact on reducing spread if you look at infection data in aggregate. We've gone from 0% vaccinated, to 60-70% with no discernable dip in infection counts.

You're trying to find data to fit your pre-determined conclusion. We're dealing with different variants now, which are more contagious.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#58

Post by adam_arthur »

simonh wrote: post #41
adam_arthur wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, of course. But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. You can't lockdown the virus away. You can't stop the spread by canceling flights either. Just seems like awful policymaking driven by virtue signaling. Covid is here forever, and that's life.

We can't stop it dead, but we can dramatically reduce the number of critical illnesses and deaths, and have done so in many countries. I'm a Brit and our lockdown and vaccination policy has been extremely effective. We've largely lived normal lives since the summer, with low case rates and very low mortality thanks to strong vaccine uptake and popular support for protective measures. If we need to lock down again, we…

The UK has roughly equivalent covid deaths per capita as the USA, where vast parts of the country never locked down and still by and large don't wear masks or get vaccinated.

Did the stricter lockdowns make a difference in the end?

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#59

Post by shin_lao »

volta83 wrote: post #49
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Good question. Excess mortality in the USA and the EU in 2020 were ~470k and ~580k deaths. The population of the USA and the EU in Jan 2020 was ~329 and ~447 million. The excess mortality in the USA and the EU in 2020 was ~143 vs ~129 excess deaths per 100.000 inhabitants. The USA had ~10% more excess deaths per capita than the EU. People living in the EU during 2020 had statistically a significantly better chance of…

10% difference for a virus with exponential spread is a margin of error difference.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#60

Post by adam_arthur »

CabSauce wrote: post #57
adam_arthur wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid is spreading at a similar rate today in most countries as it did when it first struck and there was no vaccine at all. Look at the trends in Italy, UK, US, for example. I agree the vaccine helps, but there is no clear impact on reducing spread if you look at infection data in aggregate. We've gone from 0% vaccinated, to 60-70% with no discernable dip in infection counts.

You're trying to find data to fit your pre-determined conclusion. We're dealing with different variants now, which are more contagious.

What data to fit my conclusion? I'm referencing hard data, and the dissenters here are not.

If you disagree, use hard data to support your assertions that vaccines have noticeably reduced infection rate.

The one following the science is the one using the data, by the way. Anything else is religion.

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